2022年经济学人 乌克兰还能坚持多久？(1)（在线收听）

Europe

欧洲版块

Ukraine

乌克兰

No ports in a storm

暴风雨中没有港口

It will be hard for the economy to sustain a long war

该经济体很难在长期战争中维持

The suspension of all maritime exports is a critical blow

暂停所有海上出口是一个重大打击

For someone trying to run an economy in the middle of an invasion, Serhiy Marchenko is oddly upbeat.

对于一个试图在入侵期间掌管经济的人来说，谢尔盖·马尔琴科却出奇地乐观。

The Russians may have occupied or blockaded his country’s main ports and forced the shutdown of most of its businesses, but Ukraine’s finance minister radiates calm.

俄罗斯人可能占领或封锁了乌克兰的主要港口，并迫使大部分企业关闭，但乌克兰财政部长表现得很平静。

“The situation is very difficult, I am not going to minimise that,” he says over a latte in a slick café near his ministry. “But we can manage it.”

“形势非常严峻，我不会小看这一点，”他在财政部附近的一家咖啡馆里一边喝着拿铁咖啡一边说，“但是我们可以做到。”

When an air-raid siren interrupts the interview, he simply ignores it.

当空袭警报打断采访时，他直接忽略。

Reasons not to panic are quite numerous.

不必恐慌的理由有很多。

Ukraine went into the war in good shape, with its economy growing at an annualised quarter-on-quarter pace of almost 7%;

乌克兰战时状态良好，经济季度环比增长率接近7%；

strong prices for its exports of grain, iron and steel; a well-regulated banking industry and a government deficit of less than 3% of gdp last year.

粮食、钢铁出口价格坚挺；银行业监管良好，去年政府赤字不到GDP的3%。

Its debt stood at just under 50% of gdp, a number that many finance ministers can only dream of.

它的债务略低于GDP的50%，这是许多财政部长梦寐以求的数字。

An impressively digitised tax and benefits system means that revenues are still coming in smoothly from the parts of the economy that are still functioning.

一个不错的数字化税收和福利体系意味着，收入仍能顺利地从仍在运转的经济部门获得。

Pensions and government salaries are all still being paid, even in areas that are now under Russian occupation, thanks to resilient digital systems and a surprisingly unscathed internet.

养老金和政府工资仍在发放，甚至在俄罗斯占领的地区也是如此，这要归功于灵活的数字系统和竟然毫无损伤的互联网。

Most businesses, for now, are still paying their employees, even if they cannot operate as normal, or at all.

目前，即使他们无法正常运营，甚至根本不能正常运营，大多数企业仍在向员工支付工资。

Amazingly, payroll taxes are down by only 1%, the minister says.

部长说，令人惊讶的是，工资税只下降了1%。

But it isn’t easy.

这并不容易。

The World Bank has predicted that Ukraine’s gdp will shrink by perhaps 45% in 2022.

世界银行预测，2022年乌克兰的GDP可能会缩水45%。

(“Our estimate is 44%,” Mr Marchenko grimaces.)

(“我们的估计是44%，”马尔琴科做了个鬼脸。)

And both estimates are, of course, hugely uncertain.

当然，这两种估计都存在很大的不确定性。

Customs revenues, a significant part of the government’s tax take, have crashed to around a quarter of their pre-war level thanks to lower imports and the suspension of many duties.

海关收入是政府税收的重要组成部分，由于进口减少和许多关税暂停，关税收入已暴跌至战前水平的四分之一左右。

Military salaries are another big burden.

军人的工资是另一个巨大的负担。

It all adds up to a financing gap of around $5bn every month, he says.

他表示，所有这些因素加在一起，每个月的财政缺口约为50亿美元。

That is roughly 5% of Ukraine’s depleted gdp for every month that the war goes on.

这大约相当于乌克兰在战争持续期间GDP的5%左右。

How to fill that?

该怎么填窟窿呢？

In part, Mr Marchenko says, by having the central bank print more money.

马尔琴科表示，可以让央行印制更多钞票。

In part, too, by issuing war bonds, on which the government currently is paying around 11% interest, which is less than the inflation rate.

还可以通过发行利率为11%的战争债券，低于通货膨胀率。

But the main source will need to be foreign.

但主要的资金来源需要来自国外。

And that, the finance minister says, is how he spends most of his day, lobbying foreign governments for help.

这位财政部长说，他每天大部分时间都在游说外国政府提供帮助。

America is where he has the highest hopes.

美国是他寄予最高希望的地方。

On April 28th President Joe Biden said he was asking Congress to authorise a further $33bn in new funds for Ukraine, since a previous facility is almost exhausted.

4月28日，美国总统乔·拜登表示，他正请求国会批准为乌克兰再提供330亿美元的资金，因为之前的一笔资金几乎已经用完了。

The House of Representatives has voted to raise the amount to $40bn.

众议院已投票决定将这一金额提高到400亿美元。

Most of the money will be for arms, but at least $8.5bn is for economic support.

大部分资金将用于武器，但至少有85亿美元用于经济支持。

“It’s good news, but what will the American package look like, and when will it arrive? We don’t know,” says the minister.

这是个好消息，但美国的援助会是什么样子，什么时候到达？我们不知道。“部长说。