2022年经济学人 乌克兰的战争到底什么时候能结束？(1)（在线收听）

Europe

欧洲版块

The war in Ukraine

乌克兰战争

When and how might the fighting end?

战争何时以何种方式结束?

Western allies are starting to split over the end day though neither side seems ready to stop fighting.

西方盟国关于战争何时结束出现分歧，尽管双方似乎都没有做好停止战斗的准备。

The war in Ukraine, says its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, will be won on the battlefield but can end only through negotiations.

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，乌克兰战争将在战场上获胜，但只有通过谈判才能结束。

When to stop fighting, and on what terms?

何时停止战斗，以什么条件停止战斗？

The West says that is for Ukraine to decide.

西方表示，这要由乌克兰来决定。

Yet three months into the war, Western countries are staking out positions on the endgame.

然而，战争已经持续了三个月，西方国家对战争的结局表明了自己的立场。

They are splitting into two broad camps, explains Ivan Krastev, of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, a think-tank in Sofia.

他们正在分裂成两大阵营，索非亚智库自由战略中心的伊万·克拉斯特夫解释道。

One is the “peace party”, which wants a halt to the fighting and the start of negotiations as soon as possible.

一个是“和平党”，他们希望尽快停止战斗，开始谈判。

The other is the “justice party”, which thinks Russia must be made to pay dearly for its aggression.

另一派是“正义党”，他们认为俄罗斯必须为其侵略行为付出沉重代价。

The argument turns in the first instance on territory: let Russia hold on to the land it has conquered thus far; push it back to its starting line on February 24th; or try to shove it even farther back, to the international border, to recover territories it seized in 2014?

争论首先在领土上展开：让俄罗斯守住它目前为止占领的土地；还是把它推回2月24日的起跑线；再或者是试图把它推得更远，到国际边界，收回它在2014年夺取的领土？

The debate revolves around much else besides, not least the costs, risks and rewards of prolonging the war; and the place of Russia in the European order.

这场辩论还围绕着许多其他方面的问题，尤其是延长战争的成本、风险和回报；以及俄罗斯在欧洲秩序中的地位。

The peace camp is mobilising.

和平阵营正在动员。

Germany has called for a ceasefire; Italy is circulating a four-track plan for a political settlement; France speaks of a future peace deal without “humiliation” for Russia.

德国呼吁停火；意大利正在传播一项政治解决的四轨计划；法国谈到未来的和平协议，不会让俄罗斯“蒙羞”。

Ranged against them stand mainly Poland and the Baltic states, championed by Britain.

反对他们的主要是波兰和由英国支持的波罗的海国家。

What of America?

美国态度如何？

Ukraine’s most important backer has yet to set out a clear objective, beyond strengthening Ukraine to give it a stronger bargaining hand.

乌克兰最重要的支持者除了加强乌克兰的实力，让它在谈判中占据更大的优势之外，还没有制定一个明确的目标。

America has spent nearly $14bn on the war so far, and Congress has just allocated a further $40bn.

到目前为止，美国已经在这场战争上花费了近140亿美元，国会刚刚又拨款400亿美元。

America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.

美国已经召集了40多个其他国家的军事捐款。

But this help is not unlimited.

但这种帮助并不是无限的。

It has delivered artillery, but not the longer-range rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for.

它提供了火炮，但没有提供乌克兰要求的远程火箭系统。

Remarks by Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, add to the ambiguity.

美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀的讲话更是模棱两可。

After visiting Kyiv last month he embraced the justice party, saying the West should help Ukraine “win” and “weaken” Russia.

在上个月访问基辅后，他支持正义党，称西方应该帮助乌克兰“赢”和“削弱”俄罗斯。

Three weeks later he seemed to tack to the peace camp, calling for an “immediate ceasefire” following a phone call with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu.

三周后，他似乎转向了和平阵营，在与俄罗斯总统谢尔盖·绍伊古通了电话后，呼吁“立即停火”。

The Pentagon insists there is no change of policy.

五角大楼坚称没有改变政策。

Another blow to the justice party was an editorial in the New York Times arguing that the defeat of Russia was unrealistic and dangerous.

正义党受到的另一个打击是《纽约时报》的一篇社论称，击败俄罗斯是不切实际的，也是危险的。

Then Henry Kissinger, a former secretary of state, said negotiations should start within two months to avoid “upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome”.

当时的美国前国务卿亨利·基辛格表示，谈判应在两个月内启动，以避免“难以克服的动荡和紧张局势”。