VOA科学技术2023 研究称到2100年，近70%的冰川可能会融化（在线收听）

Study: Nearly 70 percent of Glaciers Could Melt Away by 2100

研究称到2100年，近70%的冰川可能会融化

A new study has found that nearly 70 percent of the world's glaciers could disappear by the end of 2100.

一项新的研究发现，到2100年底，全球近70%的冰川可能会消失。

A group of international scientists recently reported the study in the publication Science. They said their predictions were based on current climate change developments. However, the researchers noted many glaciers can be saved if planet warming is reduced.

一组国际科学家最近在《科学》杂志上报道了这项研究。他们表示，他们的预测是基于当前气候变化的发展。然而，研究人员指出，如果减少全球变暖，许多冰川可以被拯救。

The findings provide the most detailed examination yet of the world's 215,000 glaciers.

这一发现为世界21.5万冰川提供了迄今为止最详细的检查。

The study considered four possible world temperature rises. One is a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in the average world temperature. A 2015 international treaty, called the Paris Agreement, established a targeted long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The agreement aims to limit the harmful effects of climate change on Earth.

这项研究考虑了四种可能的世界气温升高。一是世界平均气温上升1.5摄氏度。2015年的一项名为《巴黎协定》的国际条约规定了比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的长期升温目标。该协议旨在限制气候变化对地球的有害影响。

The study also considered possible temperature rises of 2, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius.

该研究还考虑了气温可能升高2、3和4摄氏度。

Regine Hock is a professor of geophysics at the University of Oslo and University of Alaska Fairbanks. She was a co-writer of the study. She told the French news agency AFP, "Every degree increase produces more melt and loss."

Regine Hock是奥斯陆大学和阿拉斯加费尔班克斯大学的地球物理学教授。她是这项研究的共同作者。她告诉法新社，“每升高一度，就会产生更多的融化和损失。”

Hock added that if Earth's temperature can be reduced, glacier losses can also be limited. "In that sense, there is also a little bit of hope," she said.

霍克补充道，如果地球的温度可以降低，冰川的损失也可以受到限制。“从这个意义上讲，也有一点点希望，”她说。

The study found that even if world temperature rise is limited to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 49 percent of the world's glaciers would disappear by the year 2100. That amount of loss would represent about 26 percent of the world's total glacier mass.

这项研究发现，即使世界气温上升限制在比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度，估计到2100年，世界上49%的冰川将消失。这一损失量约占全球冰川总质量的26%。

Current estimates suggest that if climate change keeps heading in the same direction, the world is set to have a 2.7 Celsius rise in temperature. That increase would cause nearly all glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada, the continental United States and New Zealand to melt by 2100, the study found.

目前的估计表明，如果气候变化继续朝着同一方向发展，全球气温将上升2.7摄氏度。研究发现，到2100年，这一增长将导致中欧、加拿大西部、美国大陆和新西兰几乎所有的冰川融化。

If the world temperature rose as high as 4 degrees Celsius, large glaciers such as those in Alaska would be more affected and 83 percent of glaciers would melt away by the end of the century, the researchers predicted.

研究人员预测，如果世界气温上升到4摄氏度，像阿拉斯加这样的大型冰川将受到更大的影响，到本世纪末，83%的冰川将融化。

The scientists noted that glacier loss would also worsen the problem of sea level rise. For example, the study found that warming of 1.5 degrees would lead to an average sea level rise of of nine centimeters. Temperatures of 4 degrees would cause 15 centimeters of sea level rise.

科学家们指出，冰川的消失也会加剧海平面上升的问题。例如，研究发现，升温1.5度将导致平均海平面上升9厘米。4度的温度会导致海平面上升15厘米。

The disappearance of glaciers will also affect water resources, the researchers said. Glaciers provide freshwater for about two billion people.

研究人员表示，冰川的消失也会影响水资源。冰川为大约20亿人提供淡水。

The study's predictions were reached through observations of the size of each glacier over many years. The researchers also used computer simulations to arrive at the new findings.

这项研究的预测是通过多年来对每个冰川大小的观测得出的。研究人员还利用计算机模拟得出了新的发现。

Hock noted that it is currently unclear whether the study's estimates will come true. But she said the extreme predictions do not mean that it is too late to reduce glacier loss through human actions. Hock urged policymakers around the world to take action now to prevent such glacier loss from happening.

霍克指出，目前尚不清楚这项研究的估计是否会成真。但她表示，这些极端的预测并不意味着通过人类行动减少冰川流失已经为时过晚。霍克敦促世界各地的政策制定者立即采取行动，防止此类冰川流失的发生。

Words in This Story

glacier – n. a very large area of ice that moves slowly down a slope or valley or over a wide area of land

冰川，冰川--在斜坡、山谷或大片土地上缓慢移动的非常大的一块冰

simulation – n. a creation of something that behaves or looks like something real but is not

模拟--行为或看起来像真实事物但不是真实事物的创造