VOA科学技术2023 研究发现, 全球近70%的冰川预计将在2100年前消失（在线收听）

A new study has found that nearly 70 percent of the world's glaciers could disappear by the end of 2100.

一项新的研究发现，到2100年底，全球近70%的冰川可能会消失。

A group of international scientists recently reported the study in the publication Science.

一组国际科学家团队最近在《科学》杂志上报告了这项研究。

They said their predictions were based on current climate change developments.

他们表示，他们的预测是基于当前气候变化的发展状况得出的。

However, the researchers noted many glaciers can be saved if planet warming is reduced.

然而，研究人员指出，如果减少全球变暖，许多冰川可以被拯救。

The findings provide the most detailed examination yet of the world's 215,000 glaciers.

这些研究结果提供了迄今为止对全球21.5万处冰川最详细的研究。

The study considered four possible world temperature rises.

这项研究考虑了四种可能的全球气温上升情况。

One is a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in the average world temperature.

其一是全球平均气温上升1.5摄氏度。

A 2015 international treaty, called the Paris Agreement, established a targeted long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

2015年一项名为《巴黎协定》的国际条约确立的长期升温目标是比工业化前的温度高1.5摄氏度。

The agreement aims to limit the harmful effects of climate change on Earth.

该协定旨在限制气候变化对地球的有害影响。

The study also considered possible temperature rises of 2, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius.

这项研究还考虑了气温上升2、3和4摄氏度的可能性。

Regine Hock is a professor of geophysics at the University of Oslo and University of Alaska Fairbanks.

雷吉娜·霍克是奥斯陆大学和阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校的地球物理学教授。

She was a co-writer of the study.

她是这项研究的合著者之一。

She told the French news agency AFP, "Every degree increase produces more melt and loss."

她告诉法新社，“气温每升高一度，就会造成更多积雪融化和流失。”

Hock added that if Earth's temperature can be reduced, glacier losses can also be limited.

霍克还说，如果地球的温度能够降低，冰川流失也可以受到限制。

"In that sense, there is also a little bit of hope," she said.

她说：“从这种意义上说，还是有一点希望的”。

The study found that even if world temperature rise is limited to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 49 percent of the world's glaciers would disappear by the year 2100.

研究发现，即使全球气温上升被限制在比工业化前的气温高1.5摄氏度的范围内，到2100年，估计全球49%的冰川将会消失。

That amount of loss would represent about 26 percent of the world's total glacier mass.

这一流失量约占全球冰川总量的26%。

Current estimates suggest that if climate change keeps heading in the same direction, the world is set to have a 2.7 Celsius rise in temperature.

目前的估值表明，如果气候变化继续朝着同一方向发展，全球气温将上升2.7摄氏度。

That increase would cause nearly all glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada, the continental United States and New Zealand to melt by 2100, the study found.

研究发现，这种上升将会导致中欧、加拿大西部、美国大陆和新西兰的几乎所有冰川到2100年融化。

If the world temperature rose as high as 4 degrees Celsius, large glaciers such as those in Alaska would be more affected and 83 percent of glaciers would melt away by the end of the century, the researchers predicted.

研究人员预测，如果全球气温上升4摄氏度，阿拉斯加等大型冰川将会受到更大影响，到本世纪末，83%的冰川将会融化。

The scientists noted that glacier loss would also worsen the problem of sea level rise.

科学家们指出，冰川的消失还会加剧海平面上升的问题。

For example, the study found that warming of 1.5 degrees would lead to an average sea level rise of of nine centimeters.

例如，研究发现，气温升高1.5摄氏度将会导致海平面平均上升9厘米。

Temperatures of 4 degrees would cause 15 centimeters of sea level rise.

气温升高4摄氏度将会导致海平面上升15厘米。

The disappearance of glaciers will also affect water resources, the researchers said.

研究人员表示，冰川的消失也会影响水资源。

Glaciers provide freshwater for about two billion people.

冰川为大约20亿人提供淡水。

The study's predictions were reached through observations of the size of each glacier over many years.

这项研究的预测是通过多年来对每个冰川的大小进行观察得出的。

The researchers also used computer simulations to arrive at the new findings.

研究人员还使用计算机模拟得出了新的研究结论。

Hock noted that it is currently unclear whether the study's estimates will come true.

霍克指出，目前还不清楚这项研究的估值是否会成为现实。

But she said the extreme predictions do not mean that it is too late to reduce glacier loss through human actions.

但她表示，这些极端的预测并不意味着通过人类活动来减少冰川流失已为时已晚。

Hock urged policymakers around the world to take action now to prevent such glacier loss from happening.

霍克敦促世界各地的政策制定者现在就采取行动，以防止这种冰川流失的情况发生。

I'm Bryan Lynn.

布莱恩·林恩为您播报。