VOA科学技术2023 研究称气候变暖会导致美国发生更强烈风暴（在线收听）

A new study predicts continued warming will lead to more intense and deadlier storms hitting parts of the United States.

一项新的研究预计，持续变暖将导致美国部分地区发生更猛烈和致命的风暴。

Scientists say higher temperatures are expected to cause an increase in so-called "supercell" storms. Weather scientists say supercells can bring high winds, heavy rain, hail and tornadoes.

科学家表示，预计温度升高将导致所谓的“超级单体”风暴增加。气象科学家表示，“超级单体”会带来大风、大雨、冰雹和龙卷风。

The new study was recently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. It predicted a nationwide increase of 6.6 percent in the number of supercells by 2100. The study said there could be a 25.8 percent increase in areas affected by supercells as well as in the amount of time the storms last.

这项新研究最近发表在《美国气象学会公报》上。它预计到2100年，全美国范围内的“超级单体”发生次数将会增加6.6%。研究称，受“超级单体”影响的地区以及暴风雨持续时长可能会增加25.8%。

The study's writers say some areas of the U.S. South can expect more intense storms. Rolling Fork, Mississippi, was hit by a powerful and deadly tornado recently. Storms that hit areas of Mississippi and Alabama since March 24 killed at least 21 people.

这项研究的作者表示，美国南部某些地区可能会发生更猛烈的风暴。密西西比州罗灵福克县最近被一次强大、致命的龙卷风击中。自3月24日以来，袭击密西西比州和阿拉巴马州区域的风暴至少造成21人丧生。

The new study projected that the American South would get at least one supercell per year by the year 2100.

这项新研究预计，到2100年，美国南方每年至少会发生一次“超级单体”。

Here are some examples of past supercell events. A 2013 tornado killed 51 people in Moore, Oklahoma. In 2011, a tornado in Joplin, Missouri, killed 161 people. And in the same year, tornadoes killed more than 320 people in Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee and other parts of the South.

以下是过去发生“超级单体”事件的一些例子。2013年一场龙卷风在俄克拉荷马州摩尔县导致51人丧生。2011年，密苏里州乔普林县的龙卷风导致161人丧生。同年，龙卷风在阿拉巴马州、密西西比州、田纳西州以及其它南方地区导致320多人丧生。

The study used computer simulations. A computer used a model to predict what will happen 73 years from now with different levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

该研究使用了计算机模型。计算机使用模型来预测从现在开始73年内大气中不同二氧化碳水平将会发生的状况。

Walker Ashley is a professor of disaster geography at Northern Illinois University. He told The Associated Press that people are already living with more serious storms.

沃克·阿什利是北伊利诺伊大学灾难地理学教授。他对美联社表示，人们已经在更猛烈的风暴中生活。

"The data that I've seen has persuaded me that we are in this experiment and living it right now," Ashley said. "What we're seeing in the longer term is actually occurring right now."

阿什利表示：“我所看到的数据让我相信，我们现在已经身处这样的实验环境中。我们从长远来看的情况实际上正在发生。

Ashley and others said that while the Mississippi tornado fits the projections, it was just a single weather event. This is different from making climate predictions over many years covering large areas.

阿什利等人表示，虽然密西西比州龙卷风符合预测，但是它只是单一天气事件。这与覆盖大片区域的多年气候预测不同。

Past studies have not been able to predict supercells and tornadoes in future climate simulations because they are small weather events.

过去的研究无法预测未来气候模拟中的超级单体和龙卷风，因为它们不是小型天气事件。

The study identified large changes in where and when the storms hit. The researchers said more intense storms are to be expected in the eastern United States.

该研究确定暴风雨袭中地区和时间发生了巨大变化。研究人员表示，美国东部地区预计会发生更多暴风雨。

If warming is more moderate, the study predicts parts of eastern Mississippi and eastern Oklahoma will get three more supercells every two years. In addition, eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, western Tennessee and eastern Georgia can expect to get one more supercell every other year.

该研究预测，如果温和变暖，密西西比州东部和俄克拉荷马州东部的部分地区每两年将会增加3次超级单体。此外，德克萨斯州东部、阿肯色州、路易斯安那州、阿拉巴马州、田纳西州西部和佐治亚州东部预计每隔一年会发生一次超级单体。

If warming is serious, the study projects similar changes but with worsening supercells over eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri.

如果严重变暖，该研究的预计会发生类似变化，但是俄克拉荷马州东部、阿肯色州和密苏里州南部的超级单体会更严重。

Ashley said cities that should see more supercells as warming worsens include Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Tupelo and Jackson, Mississippi; and Birmingham, Alabama.

阿什利表示，随着变暖恶化，在包括德克萨斯州达拉斯 - 沃思沃思、阿肯色州的小石城、田纳西州的孟菲斯和纳什维尔、密西西比州的图佩洛和杰克逊和阿拉巴马州伯明翰等城市会看到更多次超级单体。