VOA新闻杂志2023 "两国方案"能否解决巴以冲突?（在线收听）

"两国方案"能否解决巴以冲突?

For 30 years, many nations around the world considered two states — one Israeli, one Palestinian — as the way to reach peace in the Middle East.

30年来，世界上许多国家都认为两国（以色列和巴勒斯坦）方案是实现中东和平的途径。

VOA recently spoke to several experts about ideas for peace.

美国之音最近就这个寻求和平的想法采访了几位专家。

Many people believe two states remain the only path forward even after Hamas' October 7 deadly attack and Israel's strong counter-offensive.

许多人认为，即使在哈马斯10月7日发动致命袭击和以色列的强烈反击之后，两国方案仍然是唯一的前进道路。

Israel says Gaza's Hamas rulers killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 240 in their attack.

以色列表示，加沙的哈马斯统治者在袭击中杀死了大约1200人，绑架了240多人。

Gaza's Health Ministry, which is led by Hamas, says more than 10,000 people have died in Israel's counter-offensive.

哈马斯领导的加沙卫生部表示，有一万多人在以色列的反攻中丧生。

However, political expert Uriel Abulof of Tel Aviv University believes the loss of life on both sides has not made peace impossible.

然而，特拉维夫大学的政治专家乌列尔·阿布洛夫认为，双方的生命损失并没有使和平变得不可能。

Abulof said the war has created a chance for people to "understand that this is not a conflict between the majority of Israelis and Palestinians, [both of whom] want to live in coexistence, without radical leaders," he said.

阿布洛夫说，这场战争为人们创造了一个机会，让他们“明白这不是大多数以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间的冲突，他们都希望在没有激进领导人的情况下共存。”

"On one side you have Hamas, which you have to deal with militarily, and on the other side are (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition, which need to be dealt with politically," he told VOA.

他对美国之音说：“一边是必须用军事手段对付的哈马斯，另一边是需要用政治手段对付的以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和他的联盟。”

Hussein Ibish is with the Arab Gulf States Institute that is based in Washington, D.C.

侯赛因·伊比什就职于总部设在华盛顿的阿拉伯海湾国家研究所。

He also believes that a permanent solution to the long conflict is possible only with a two-state model.

他也认为，只有通过两国模式才有可能永久解决这场长久冲突。

He said it could be done in steps.

他说，这可以分步骤完成。

"Israel must finally and formally accept the Palestinian right to a state and the need for it. The construction and establishment of settlements must stop completely," he said.

他说：“以色列最终必须正式接受巴勒斯坦建国的权利和必要性。以色列必须完全停止建设和建立定居点”。

Ibish believes Israeli settlements in the West Bank, one of the two Palestinian territories, should be halted.

伊比什认为，以色列应该停止在约旦河西岸建设定居点。约旦河西岸是两块巴勒斯坦领土之一。

Israel completely withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005.

以色列于2005年完全撤出加沙地带。

Ibish also said Palestinians must condemn the Hamas attacks of October 7 and promise to end the violence.

伊比什还说，巴勒斯坦人必须谴责哈马斯10月7日发动的袭击，并承诺结束暴力。

He said the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, must be strengthened.

他说，统治约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦权力机构必须得到加强。

Other experts are doubtful.

其他专家则持怀疑态度。

Omer Bartov is a professor of Holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University in the American state of Rhode Island.

奥马尔·巴托夫是美国罗德岛州布朗大学大屠杀和种族灭绝研究的教授。

Bartov believes the two-state plan is unrealistic.

巴托夫认为，两国方案是不现实的。

He said it would create an economically weak Palestine that is dependent on Israel.

他说，这将创造一个经济脆弱、依赖以色列的巴勒斯坦。

He added that "because there are between half-a-million and 750,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank…their removal from the territory would mean civil war."

他补充说，“因为在约旦河西岸有50万到75万名犹太人定居者，把他们赶出这片领土将意味着内战。”

He also notes there are 2 million Palestinians who live in Israel.

他还指出，有200万巴勒斯坦人生活在以色列。

Israel captured the West Bank, along with East Jerusalem, from Jordan in the Six-Day War of 1967.

以色列在1967年的六日战争中从约旦手中夺取了约旦河西岸和东耶路撒冷。

It took Gaza from Egypt in the same war but withdrew from the territory.

在同一场战争中，以色列从埃及手中夺取了加沙，但后来又撤出了该领域。

Bartov said another possibility is a confederation of Palestinian-Israeli states within the 1967 borders.

巴托夫说，另一种可能性是在1967年边界内建立巴以联邦。

A confederated state, he said, would permit Palestinian refugees to return to territories their ancestors left when Israel was created.

他说，一个联邦国家将允许巴勒斯坦难民返回他们的祖先在以色列建国时留下的领土。

"Jerusalem could be the common capital," he said.

他说：“耶路撒冷可以成为共同的首都”。

"There would be a difference between citizenship and residence," said Bartov.

巴托夫说：“公民权和居住权会有所不同”。

"Jewish settlers could continue to live in the Palestinian state but behave according to its regulations. And the Palestinians could return from exile…"

“犹太人定居者可以继续在巴勒斯坦生活，但要遵守其规定。巴勒斯坦人可以结束流亡生活。”

However, he said the single-state solution seems impossible because of the current war.

然而，他表示，由于当前的战争，一国解决方案似乎是不可能的。

Ibish of the Arab Gulf States Institute said U.S. involvement would be important to any permanent solution.

阿拉伯海湾国家研究所的伊比什说，美国的参与对任何永久性解决方案都是重要的。

He said the U.S. is the only country with the influence to guarantee a two-state peace agreement.

他说，美国是唯一有影响力保证两国和平协议的国家。

However, he said, there is a large political cost in the U.S. to put too much pressure on Israel.

然而，他说，对以色列施加太大压力会让美国付出很大的政治代价。

Bartov of Brown University agreed that no plan is possible without the U.S. support on which Israel depends politically and militarily.

布朗大学的巴托夫同意，如果没有美国的支持，任何计划都不可能实现，而以色列在政治和军事上都依赖美国的支持。

Without it, he suggested, the endless warfare would only continue.

他表示，如果没有它，无休止的战争只会继续下去。

Israelis and Palestinians "really don't feel there is hope. That's why the perspective must be changed — how to make these two groups of people live side by side, not apart."

以色列人和巴勒斯坦人“真的会觉得没有希望。这就是必须改变观点——如何让这两群人共存，而不是分开——的原因。”