2023年经济学人 圣诞节送礼的低效性(2)（在线收听）

圣诞节送礼的低效性(2)

    Another Christmas inefficiency for retailers is the fact that it comes but once a year.

    对于零售商来说，圣诞节低效的另一个原因是它一年只有一次。

    Gary Grant of The Entertainer, which sells toys, jokes that he would love it if festive sales were spread throughout the year rather than being crammed into the final quarter.

    玩具销售商The Entertainer的加里·格兰特开玩笑说，如果全年都能进行节日销售，而不是只有每年最后一个季度，他会很高兴。

    He is understaffed, he says, during the holiday season, when he expands his workforce by 50%, and then overstaffed the rest of the year.

    他说，节日假期期间，公司人手不足，于是他又雇佣了50%的员工，然后在一年剩下的时间，公司又出现了人员过剩的情况。

    Shipping companies, warehouse operators and sorting centers must also organise themselves to meet peak demand; that can mean unused capacity at quieter times of the year.

    航运公司、仓库管理人员和分拣中心也必须组织起来，以满足节日高峰期的服务需求；这可能意味着淡季会出现供给过剩。

    Data from Metapack, a logistics software company, suggest that in December the volume of posted parcels is more than double the level in September.

    物流软件公司Metapack的数据显示，12月份邮寄的包裹数量是9月份的两倍多。

    Over time, it does seem that consumers are spreading their spending a little more thinly across the year.

    随着时间的推移，消费者全年支出似乎分摊得更细了。

    In 1986 25% of the year's spending on clothing was in November and December.

    1986年，11月和12月服装消费的支出占一年的25%。

    In 2019 the share was 22%.

    2019年，这一比例为22%。

    Seasonality in retail spending, which includes restaurants, is also falling.

    包括餐馆在内的季节性零售支出的也在下降。

    Seasonal employment as a share of the total between October and December has been decreasing since 1997, according to the Office for National Statistics.

    根据英国国家统计局的数据，自1997年以来，从事季节性就业的人数占总就业人数的比例自1997年以来一直在下降。

    A new study by Mr. Waldfogel found that since 2000 growth in the American economy has been associated with a smaller seasonal bump in December's retail sales.

    沃德弗格的一项新研究发现，自2000年以来，与美国经济增长相关的12月份零售额的季节性增长幅度越来越小。

    While some dream of white Christmases, others may yearn for mandatory exchanges of cash, or even a mechanism to randomly allocate the celebrations evenly across months of the year.

    虽然一些人梦想着白色圣诞节的到来，还有一些人渴望强制交换现金作为礼物，甚至渴望形成一种机制，将庆祝活动随机分配到一年中的某几个月。

    Much would be lost if such a system were adopted, not least the joy that can accompany the exchange of carefully (if badly) chosen presents.

    如果真的采用这样的制度，我们会失去很多东西，尤其是快乐，它可以伴随我们交换精心挑选的礼物（虽然我们可能品味不好）的全过程。

    But creating a fresh batch of unintended consequences for economists to analyse might yield some happy returns.

    但由此创造一批意想不到的新推论供经济学家分析，可能会带来一些令人满意的回报。