2023年经济学人 美国堕胎率稳步下降（1）（在线收听）

    Abortions have become 6% rarer since the end of Roe v Wade自从罗伊诉韦德案结束后，堕胎率下降了6%

    After the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organisation last June, which reversed its decision in Roe v Wade and let states ban abortion, the biggest remaining question was what effect the change would have.

    去年6月，最高法院在多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织一案中做出裁决，推翻了在罗伊诉韦德案中的裁决，并允许各州发布禁止堕胎的制度。在这之后，最大的问题是，这一变化会产生什么影响。

    On paper, Roe established a nationwide right to abortion.

    理论上，罗伊案件的判决确立了全国范围内的堕胎权。

    However, conservative states had already implemented rules before Dobbs that made abortions, though technically legal, very hard to obtain.

    然而，在多布斯之前，保守党联邦州已经实施了一些规定，使得堕胎在技术上合法，但很难获得相关渠道。

    Liberal states, in contrast, were unlikely to impose new restrictions.

    相比之下，自由党联邦州不太可能施加新的限制。

    Were Roe’s protections worth as much in practice as in principle?

    罗伊案带来的的庇护实际上和原则上有一样的价值吗?

    In the past, state-level data on the prevalence of abortion were patchy.

    过去，关于堕胎率的州级数据参差不齐。

    But a report released by the Society of Family Planning (sfp), a non-profit group, quantifies the effect.

    但非营利组织计划生育协会发布的一份报告量化了这种影响。

    From July to December 2022 there were 31,180 fewer abortions than pre-Dobbs rates would suggest, a decline of 6%.

    从2022年7月到12月，堕胎人数比多布斯前的数字少了31180人，下降了6%。

    That is despite a rise in abortions administered by virtual clinics, which prescribe abortifacient drugs like mifepristone (which the Supreme Court has temporarily protected).

    这是在线上诊所购买堕胎药增加的情况下统计的，这些诊所开的药是米非司酮(最高法院暂时允许米非司酮出售)。

    In early 2022 sfp began compiling a database of every clinic, medical office and hospital known to perform abortions.

    2022年初，生育协会开始编制一个数据库，其中包括已知实施堕胎的所有诊所、医务室和医院。

    It asked each one to calculate monthly abortion counts, and offered to pay expenses for data collection.

    它要求每个组织计算每月堕胎数量，并主动为数据收集支付费用。

    Of the organisations contacted, 83% submitted numbers.

    在联系的组织中，83%提交了数据。

    sfp produced estimates for the remaining 17%.

    生育协会对剩余的17%进行了估计。

    The overall decline understates the effect Dobbs has had in much of the country.

    整体的下降低估了多布斯案在美国大部分地区的影响。

    Across the 22 states where new restrictions took effect following the ruling, the number of abortions fell by 67,040 (63%).

    在该裁决生效后22个州实施了新限制，堕胎数量下降了67,040例(63%)。

    Even in states with tight pre-Dobbs restrictions, the decision’s impact has been vast.

    即使在多布斯案之前实行严格限制的州，也被这一决定严重影响了。

    After Texas implemented a law in 2021 that banned abortions once a fetal heartbeat could be detected, its abortion rate fell from 5,400 per month to 2,200.

    德克萨斯州在2021年实施了一项法律，一旦胎儿心跳能被检测到，就禁止堕胎，此后其堕胎率从每月5400人下降到2200人。

    In April 2022 sfp recorded 2,700 abortions in the state.

    2022年4月，生育协会记录了该州2700例堕胎。

    But between July and December 2022 it has logged fewer than 100.

    但在2022年7月至12月期间，相关记录不到100个。

    Abortion has also all but disappeared in seven other states, including four in the South.

    在其他7个州，堕胎也几乎消失，其中包括了南方的4个州。