2023年经济学人 日本央行令投资者震惊（1）（在线收听）

    Finance & economics

    财经板块

    Monetary policy: No time like the present货币政策：机不可失，时不再来

    The Bank of Japan shocks investors

    日本央行令投资者震惊

    In recent months anticipation had grown that in 2023 the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would at last tighten monetary policy after years of no-holds-barred stimulus.

    近几个月来，越来越多的人预计，在经过多年不加限制的刺激措施之后，日本银行(BOJ)最终将在2023年收紧货币政策。

    Almost nobody expected it to happen in 2022.

    几乎没有人预料到这会在2022年发生。

    But on December 20th the bank lifted its cap on ten-year government-bond yields from 0.25% to 0.5%.

    但在12月20日，日本央行将十年期政府债券收益率的上限从0.25%提高到了0.5%。

    The Christmas surprise caused the yen to surge—and set off speculation about what might come next.

    圣诞节的这一惊喜导致日元飙升，并引发了人们对接下来可能发生的事情的猜测。

    Since 2016 the BOJ has intervened in bond markets to keep the ten-year bond yield at around 0%, a policy known as “yield-curve control”.

    2016年以来，日本央行一直在干预债券市场，将十年期债券收益率保持在0%左右，这一政策被称为“收益率曲线控制”。

    Technically, the bank permitted fluctuations of a quarter of a percentage point around the 0% goal.

    严格来说，日本央行允许在0%的目标附近波动0.25个百分点。

    But the upper limit of 0.25% is what mattered, especially this year, as upward pressure on yields built around the globe.

    但0.25%的上限才是最重要的，特别是今年，因为全球收益率上升的压力都越来越大。

    Now the BOJ will allow moves of half a percentage point around zero.

    现在，日本央行将允许在零附近波动0.5个百分点。

    After the announcement, the ten-year bond yield surged from 0.25% to 0.4%, its biggest daily shift since 2003.

    消息公布后，日本10年期国债的收益率从0.25%飙升到了0.4%，这是2003年以来的最大单日波动。

    The BOJ had been a global outlier, maintaining ultra-loose policy even as America’s Federal Reserve and other central banks chose to raise interest rates sharply.

    日本央行一直是全球的异类，即使在美国联邦储备委员会和其他央行选择大幅提高利率的情况下，日本央行仍维持超宽松政策。

    Japan’s benchmark interest rate of -0.1% has not moved in almost seven years and the bank owns over half of the government bond market.

    日本的基准利率为-0.1%，近七年来一直没有变动，日本央行拥有超过一半的政府债券市场。

    Yield-curve control was implemented as a way of allowing the BOJ to control long-term interest rates without running out of bonds to buy.

    实施收益率曲线控制，是为了让日本央行能够控制长期利率，而不会耗尽可购买的债券。

    Paradoxically, when central banks credibly promise to peg the price of an asset, they often need not intervene much to enforce the policy.

    矛盾的是，当央行信誓旦旦地承诺会固定资产价格时，他们通常不需要太多干预就能执行这一政策。

    The market implements the peg by itself.

    市场会自行固定价格。