2023年经济学人 日本央行令投资者震惊（2）（在线收听）

    For most of the policy’s history that more or less worked.

    在以往执行该政策的大部分时间里，这种做法或多或少地发挥了作用。

    In 2022, however, the peg has come under considerable pressure as traders have speculated that monetary policy would need to be tightened.

    然而，在2022年，由于交易员猜测货币政策将需要收紧，价格固定面临着相当大的压力。

    The chasm between the policies of Japan and those in the rest of the rich world caused the yen to plunge by 23% against the dollar from the start of 2022 to mid-October.

    从2022年初到10月中旬，日本和其他发达国家政策之间的鸿沟导致日元兑美元汇率暴跌了23%。

    In October, annual inflation was 3.6%, a 40-year high and well above the BOJ’s 2% target.

    10月份的年通胀率为3.6%，为40年来的最高水平，远高于日本央行2%的目标。

    Though most of the inflation was imported, many central banks have been caught out since the covid-19 pandemic by assuming price growth will cool without tighter monetary policy.

    尽管大部分通胀是输入性的，但自从新冠肺炎疫情至今，许多央行陷入了困境，因为它们认为，不收紧货币政策，物价上涨也会降温。

    Yet it was widely assumed that any pivot by the BOJ would come after its current governor, Kuroda Haruhiko, leaves in April.

    然而，人们普遍认为，日本央行的任何转向都将在现任行长黑田东彦4月份离职之后发生。

    That policymakers moved faster makes sense: it spares the BOJ months of bond-buying to enforce the old cap, and the greater losses it would endure on its bigger bond portfolio.

    政策制定者采取更快的行动是有道理的：这使得日本央行不必花几个月的时间购买债券来执行旧的上限，也不必承受其更大债券投资组合上的更多损失。

    How far will Japan’s central bank now go?

    日本央行现在会走多远？

    After the announcement the dollar fell by 3.4% against the yen, but the Japanese currency remains at its weakest level in two decades.

    声明公布后，美元兑日元汇率下跌了3.4%，但日元汇率仍处于20年来的最低水平。

    Economists are watching the shunto, Japan’s springtime wage negotiations between large companies and trade unions, for more signs of inflation.

    经济学家正在关注大公司和工会之间的日本春季劳资谈判--春斗，以寻找更多通胀迹象。

    Japanese firms raised winter bonuses by 9.7%, according to Nikkei, a business newspaper, the largest such increase since 1975.

    据商业报纸《日本经济新闻》报道，日本企业将冬季奖金提高了9.7%，这是1975年以来的最大增幅。

    Mr Kuroda claims that he has not tightened monetary policy, only responded to volatile market conditions.

    黑田东彦声称，他没有收紧货币政策，只是对动荡的市场状况做出了反应。

    Yet the announcement was his “sayonara present”, according to Jesper Koll of Monex Group, a Japanese brokerage.

    然而，根据日本经纪公司莫尼克斯集团杰斯珀·科尔的说法，这一声明是他的“告别礼物”。

    “It opens the door for ‘Operation Freedom’ for whoever his successor will be.”

    “这为他的继任者开启了‘自由行动’的大门。”

    Japanese financial markets could be in for a turbulent 2023.

    日本金融市场可能会在2023年陷入动荡。