2023年经济学人 奢华的写字楼与低迷的市场（1）（在线收听）

    The view from the top.

    高层俯瞰的风光。

    Absurdly opulent offices defy the market's gloom.

    过分奢华的写字楼对抗低迷的市场。

    It is lunchtime at One Vanderbilt, a new office tower which juts out of midtown Manhattan.

    现在是范德比尔特一号大厦的午餐时间，这栋大厦是曼哈顿中城外的一座新写字楼。

    The building's vast basement kitchen hums, as harried staff in chef's whites leap in and out of swing doors.

    大楼地下室宽敞的厨房叮当作响，穿着白色厨师袍的工作人员从旋转门进进出出。

    Upstairs, gourmet salads and soup are served in a lounge overlooking Grand Central Station; a sit-down restaurant offers foie gras, grilled scallops and other dishes from Daniel Boulud, a celebrity chef.

    在楼上，能够俯瞰纽约中央火车站的休息室里供应着美味的沙拉和汤羹；提供座位的餐厅供应着名厨丹尼尔·布卢德制作的鹅肝酱、烤扇贝和其它各式菜肴。

    There is not a soggy, al-desko sandwich in sight.

    这里没有湿软的方便即食三明治。

    Across the rich world, the commercial-property industry is in a grim state.

    在整个富裕世界，商业地产行业正处于岌岌可危的状态。

    Tenants have come to terms with the fact that working from home is here to stay, and are downsizing appropriately.

    租户们对目前的情况做出了妥协——居家办公成为常态，并正在适当地缩减用地规模。

    In cities such as Hong Kong, London and Paris vacancy rates have hit record highs.

    在香港、伦敦和巴黎等城市，商业地产空置率创下历史新高。

    Another indicator of the darkening mood is that global investment in offices last year fell by 42%, compared with a 28% drop for property as a whole.

    悲观情绪还反映在其它指标上。去年，全球写字楼投资率下降了42%，而房地产投资整体下降为28%。

    A recent paper by Arpit Gupta of New York University and Vrinda Mittal and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of Columbia University forecasts that offices in New York could lose almost 40% of their value between 2019 and 2029, equivalent to $453bn.

    纽约大学的阿皮特·古普塔和哥伦比亚大学的维琳达·米塔尔和斯蒂恩·范·纽沃堡在最近的一篇论文中预测，2019年至2029年期间，纽约写字楼估值可能会下降近40%，相当于4530亿美元。

    Yet One Vanderbilt, a 93-storey skyscraper with a sparkling "hall of light" observatory at its top , is among a spate of new trophy properties and renovated buildings offering interiors and services akin to those at elite private-members clubs.

    然而，范德比尔特一号大厦是一座93层的摩天大楼，其顶层有一个闪闪发光的“光之厅”观景台。该大厦是新的奖杯式房地产和翻新建筑的其中一座，提供类似于高端私人俱乐部的室内设计和服务。

    Last year tenants in Manhattan signed deals for 6.1m square feet (566,709 square metres) of high-end office space, double the amount the year before, according to JLL, a property firm.

    根据房地产公司仲量联行的数据，去年，曼哈顿的租户租赁的高端写字楼总面积达到610万平方英尺（566,709平方米），是前年的两倍。

    The luxurious turn was under way before the pandemic, but accelerated as companies found themselves in competition with home offices.

    这种奢华的转变在疫情爆发前就已经开始了，但居家办公逐渐成为主流的趋势加速了这种转变。

    If a firm needs space for only half its workers each day, it can pay more per square foot.

    一家公司如果每天只需要为一半的员工提供工作场地，那么它可以为每平方英尺支付更多租金。

    The picture at the top of the commercial property market is therefore very different to the misery in the lower echelons.

    因此，商业地产市场顶层的情况与悲惨的底层截然不同。

    Although New York is home to the most opulent new-builds, extravagant offices are appearing in other global cities, too.

    尽管纽约拥有最豪华的新建楼盘，但全球其它城市也出现了豪华的写字楼。

    In London 105 Victoria Street's owners are adding 30,000 square feet of green space - the equivalent of 14 tennis courts - including an urban farm and a "walk-and-talk" track.

    在伦敦，维多利亚街105号的业主正在建设3万平方英尺的绿地——相当于14个网球场的面积——包括一个城市农场和一条能够“边走边说”的跑道。

    Merdeka 118, a skyscraper under construction in Kuala Lumpur, will boast one of the world's loftiest observation decks.

    吉隆坡在建的摩天大楼默迪卡118将拥有世界最高的几个观景台的其中之一。

    Before the pandemic, desks accounted for around 60% of office space, according to Cushman and Wakefield, a property consultancy.

    根据房地产咨询公司高纬物业的数据，在疫情爆发之前，办公桌约占办公空间面积的60%。

    Things have changed considerably.

    如今，情况发生了很大的变化。

    New and refurbished offices are using half that space for workstations, and raising the share dedicated to amenities from 5% to 20%.

    新建和翻新的办公室将一半的空间用做办公岗位，并将专用于便利设施的面积从5%提高到20%。

    Meditation rooms, bike storage, showers, outdoor spaces and other treats are now de rigueur.

    冥想室、自行车存放间、淋浴、户外空间和其他福利设施现在成为了必需品。