2023年经济学人 当幻想在华尔街遇到现实（1）（在线收听）

    Fantasy finally meets reality on Wall Street.

    幻想最终在华尔街遇到了现实。

    Two years ago the stockmarket was in the grip of speculative mania.

    两年前，股市还处于投机狂潮之中。

    Shares in GameStop, a struggling video-game retailer, hit an all-time intraday high of $483 on January 28th 2021, up from around $5 at the beginning of the month.

    2021年1月28日，苦苦挣扎的电子游戏零售商“游戏驿站”的股价从月初的约5美元涨至483美元，创下历史新高。

    Retail traders co-ordinated in a Reddit forum and snapped up shares using brokerage apps like Robinhood.

    散户们在Reddit的一个板块上协商一致，使用Robinhood等交易软件抢购股票。

    Empowered by technology, newcomers piled into GameStop, ostensibly because the beleaguered chain was one Wall Street had heavily sold short (ie, bet that the firm's shares would fall in price).

    在技术的推动下，大量散户参与了游戏驿站的股票交易，表面原因是这家陷入困境的连锁店是被华尔街严重做空的公司（即预测该公司的股价将会下跌）。

    Short-sellers were the villains.

    做空者罪大恶极。

    When GameStop spiked they lost their shirts.

    如果游戏驿站股价飙升，他们就会损失惨重。

    What could be better?

    还有比这更好的事吗？

    The question at the time was how much of this would endure.

    当时的问题在于，这样的情况能持续多久。

    Manias are as old as the hills, but this one seemed different: it was enabled by new technology that wasn't going anywhere.

    人类的强烈欲望并不是什么新鲜事，但这一次似乎不同：它是在不会消失的新技术的帮助下实现的。

    For a time, the GameStop crew were unstoppable.

    一段时间内，游戏驿站的支持者势不可挡。

    They pumped up prices for companies that had attracted interest from short-sellers, such as AMC, a cinema chain, and Bed, Bath & Beyond, a home-goods retailer.

    他们抬高了做空者感兴趣的公司的股票价格，比如连锁影院美国电影院线和家居用品零售商Bed，Bath&Beyond。

    Battle-hardened short-sellers, including Andrew Left of Citron, a research firm, threw in the towel.

    包括香橼研究公司的安德鲁·莱福在内的很多久经沙场的做空者都认输了。

    Melvin Capital, a firm that had shorted GameStop, which the Reddit hordes made the cartoon villain of the saga, decided to close its doors in May 2022.

    梅尔文资本曾做空游戏驿站，被Reddit用户塑造成了这一传奇故事中卡通反派，受事件影响，这家公司决定在2022年5月关闭。

    When interest rates are zero the price of a dream can be infinite.

    当利率为零时，梦想的价格可能没有上限。

    Higher rates change the dynamic.

    利率的上升改变了这种动态。

    Last year was therefore rough on the meme-portfolio, but its fans are nothing if not resilient, even when making losses.

    因此，去年对meme投资组合来说是艰难的一年，但它的粉丝具有极大的韧性，即使是在亏损的情况下也是如此。

    Matthias Hanauer of Robeco, an asset manager, tracks the most heavily shorted stocks in the MSCI Developed Index, a benchmark of global shares.

    荷宝的资产管理人马蒂亚斯·哈瑙尔追踪了全球股市基准指数，即摩根士丹利资本国际公司发达指数中被严重做空的股票。

    Since December 31st 2020, a month before GameStop shares peaked, they have underperformed the market by around 15 percentage points.

    自2020年12月31日以来，也就是游戏驿站股价达到峰值的前一个月，该公司股票的表现落后大市约15个百分点。

    If 2022 was a reckoning with professional investors, then 2023 will be a reckoning with reality.

    如果2022年是对专业投资者的报复，那么2023年将是对现实的报复。

    A slowing economy is going to break many of the companies meme-stockers profess to adore.

    经济放缓将摧毁许多meme股股民宣称热爱的公司。

    Monetary tightening slows the economy with a lag.

    货币紧缩缓慢地减缓经济发展。

    As conditions worsen, struggling retailers, such as Bed, Bath and Beyond, are floundering.

    随着情况的恶化，Bed，Bath&Beyond等苦苦挣扎的零售商处境更加艰难。

    On January 26th the shower-curtain purveyor was served a slew of default notices by its bankers.

    1月26日，为这家浴帘供应商提供资金的银行向其发出了一系列违约通知。

    Reuters, a newswire, has reported it may soon file for bankruptcy.

    新闻通讯社路透社报道称，该公司可能很快会申请破产。

    The end of more than a decade of rock-bottom interest rates is also beginning to reveal corporate misdeeds and sometimes outright fraud.

    长达十几年的利率极低的时代终结，企业的不端行为，甚至是彻头彻尾的欺诈行为也开始暴露出来。

    "Capital was free for 12 years," says a former Wall Street tycoon.

    “资本在这12年是免费的，”一位前华尔街大亨表示。

    "We have no idea about all the places capital went that it should not have gone."“我们不知道资本都去了哪些不该去的地方。”

    Some initial pockets of misallocation have become apparent.

    原本不当配置的情况得以显露。

    The pricking of the bubble in cryptocurrency markets has exposed businesses including Celsius and FTX, the founders of which have been charged with defrauding their investors.

    加密货币市场的泡沫破裂，让包括Celsius和FTX在内的企业存在的问题暴露了出来，这两家公司的创始人都被控对投资者进行欺诈。