2023年经济学人 为什么西方的就业奇迹会持续下去(2)（在线收听）

    What explains employers’ Japanese turn?

    如何解释雇主的日本化倾向？

    Perhaps, after the pandemic, bosses are kinder to workers.

    也许，在疫情过后，老板们对员工更仁慈了。

    Another, more realistic, possibility is that firms are in a strong financial position.

    另一种更现实的可能性是，公司的财务状况良好。

    This may allow them to withstand lower revenues today without needing to slash costs.

    这可能让他们在不需要削减成本的情况下，能够承受现今较低的收入。

    Many received help from governments during the covid era.

    在疫情时期，许多企业得到了政府的帮助。

    And in recent years corporate profits have been hefty.

    近年来，企业利润一直很高。

    Businesses across the rich world are still sitting on cash piles about a third higher than before the pandemic.

    富裕国家的企业，其坐拥的资金仍比疫情前多出约三分之一。

    A more intriguing possibility concerns the workforce.

    一个更耐人寻味的可能性与劳动力有关。

    According to our estimates, the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the labour force, relative to pre-pandemic trends.

    根据我们的估计，与疫情前的趋势相比，富裕国家“缺少”了1000万工人，约占劳动力总数的1.5%。

    In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk.

    在英国和意大利，劳动力实际上已经缩减。

    Early retirements and an ageing population explain part of the deficit.

    提前退休和人口老龄化是造成这一缺口的部分原因。

    Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, prompting them to drop out.

    新冠疫情可能使得人们重新评估自己的优先事项，并促使他们退休。

    Some even think long covid is forcing people to stay on the sidelines.

    一些人甚至认为，长期的疫情正迫使人们置身事外。

    Whatever the explanation, falling participation has wreaked havoc with plans.

    无论作何解释，参与度下降对计划造成了严重破坏。

    Many firms fired staff when the pandemic hit, only to struggle to rehire them in 2021.

    许多公司在疫情来袭时解雇了员工，结果在2021年却很难再重新聘用他们。

    That year vacancies in the OECD hit an all-time high of 30m.

    那一年，经合组织国家的职位空缺数达到创历史新高的3000万。

    Employers may now want to avoid making the same mistake.

    雇主现在可能希望避免重蹈覆辙。

    A recent report by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a consultancy, identifies “a reluctance among companies to sanction job cuts due to the immense challenges they faced in rehiring post-pandemic”.

    咨询公司标普全球市场才智公司最近发布的一份报告指出，由于疫情过后，企业在重新招聘员工方面面临巨大挑战，因此企业不愿批准裁员。

    In America gross job losses have so far been smaller than is normal at the start of the year.

    在美国，到目前为止，失业总人数比年初的正常水平要低。

    Daniel Silver of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, speculates that this is because “firms are reluctant to let go of workers given perceived difficulties in eventual rehiring.”

    摩根大通银行的丹尼尔·西尔弗推测，这是因为“考虑到最终重新招聘的困难，公司不愿解雇工人”。

    Labour-market pain may end up being merely delayed.

    劳动力市场的痛苦可能最终只是被推迟。

    In some past recessions unemployment only started to rise decisively some time after GDP started to fall.

    在过去的一些衰退中，失业率在GDP开始下降一段时间后才开始显著上升。

    But “real-time” data show little sign that joblessness is about to surge.

    但“实时”数据显示，几乎没有迹象表明失业率即将飙升。

    A recent survey by ManpowerGroup, a staffing firm, suggests employers in most countries still have ambitious hiring plans.

    人力资源公司万宝盛华最近的一项调查显示，大多数国家的雇主仍有宏大的招聘计划。

    In America the National Federation of Independent Business, a lobby group, finds an unusually large share of small firms plan to create new jobs in the next three months.

    在美国，游说团体全国独立企业联合会发现，计划在未来三个月内创造新工作岗位的小公司的比例高得异乎寻常。

    Confronted with labour-market resilience even in the face of rising interest rates, central banks may be tempted to tighten monetary policy faster still.

    看到劳动力市场在利率不断上升时仍有弹性，央行可能会受到诱惑，以还要更快的速度收紧货币政策。

    Further increases in rates, or another energy shock, may push employers over the edge, forcing them to cut staff.

    利率的进一步提高，或另一场能源危机，可能会将雇主推到边缘，迫使他们裁员。

    The pressure to retain staff could, however, become a structural issue.

    然而，留住员工的压力可能会成为一个结构性问题。

    Over the next decade rich-world populations will age rapidly, dragging further on labour supply.

    在接下来的十年里，富裕国家的人口将迅速老龄化，进一步拉低劳动力供应。

    Good workers are likely to become harder to find.

    好员工可能会更加难找。

    Next time there may only be three people making your correspondent’s martini.

    下一次，给您的记者倒马提尼的可能只有三个人了。