2023年经济学人 日本的工资终于开始上涨（在线收听）

日本的工资终于开始上涨

    Finance & economics

    财经版块

    28 Years Later

    28年之后

    After decades of stagnation, wages in Japan are finally rising.

    在经历了数十年的经济停滞之后，日本的工资终于开始上涨。

    Kasahara Yoshihisa, boss of Higo Bank, a lender in Japan’s south, beams with pride as he explains plans to lift wages.

    笠原吉久是日本南部的肥后银行的老板，当他解释提高工资的计划时，他脸上洋溢着自豪的笑容。

    The firm’s workers will see a 3% boost, as well as regular increases for seniority.

    该公司的员工薪水将上涨3%，还会基于资历而定期涨薪。

    But a sheepish look crosses his face when asked about the last time staff saw such a rise.

    但当被问及员工上一次有这种涨薪是什么时候，他脸上掠过一丝窘迫的表情。

    “Twenty-eight years ago,” he admits.

    “是28年前。”他承认道。

    Higo Bank is no outlier.

    肥后银行并非例外。

    Annual nominal wages in Japan rose by just 4% from 1990 to 2019, compared with 145% in America, according to the OECD, a rich-country club.

    根据富裕国家俱乐部经合组织的数据，从1990年到2019年，日本的名义年薪仅增长了4%，相比之下，美国增长了145%。

    Unions emphasise job stability over raises; bosses are reluctant to lift pay amid poor productivity growth.

    工会强调工作稳定而非加薪，在生产率增长乏力的情况下，老板们不愿提高工资。

    This has hampered efforts to escape deflation or low inflation.

    这阻碍了日本逃脱通货紧缩或低通胀的努力。

    Thus the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained a doveish policy stance despite headline inflation topping 4% this year.

    因此，尽管今年整体通胀率高达4%，日本银行仍保持着温和宽松的政策立场。

    But recent data suggest change may be on the way: this year’s wage negotiations point to the fastest pay growth in 30 years.

    但最近的数据显示可能即将发生变化：今年的薪资谈判显示，薪资增速是30年来最快的一次。

    Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, calls it “the biggest macro development in Japan in a decade”.

    来自投资银行摩根士丹利的丹尼尔·布莱克称这是“日本宏观经济十年来最大的发展”。

    For Ueda Kazuo, who took over as BOJ governor on April 8th, the data will be a crucial factor in deciding whether to tighten policy.

    对于4月8日接任日本央行行长的植田和男来说，工资数据将是决定是否收紧政策的关键因素。

    Parsing Japanese wage figures requires understanding local quirks.

    分析日本的工资数据需要了解日本的一些怪癖。

    Wages are set when firms and unions meet for yearly negotiations known as shunto or “the spring offensive”.

    工资是在公司和工会举行年度谈判时确定的，这一谈判被称为“春季攻势”。

    Headline figures consist of two parts: scheduled seniority-based increases and “base pay”.

    主要数字由两部分组成：基于资历的预定加薪和“基本工资”。

    The latter has more impact on household spending, and thus potential to influence inflation.

    后者对家庭支出的影响更大，因此有可能影响通胀。

    According to figures released by Japan’s confederation of labour unions on April 5th, base pay will rise by 2.2% and headline wages by 3.7% this year, compared with 0.5% and 2.1% last year.

    日本工会联合会4月5日公布的数据显示，今年基本工资将上涨2.2%，整体薪资将上涨3.7%，而去年的增幅分别为0.5%和2.1%。

    Blue-chip firms have been particularly generous.

    蓝筹股公司尤其慷慨。

    Fast Retailing, a clothing giant which owns brands including Uniqlo, gave its regular workers increases of as much as 40%.

    拥有优衣库等品牌的服装巨头迅销给其固定员工提供了高达40%的涨薪。

    More data will trickle in until July, as medium- and smaller-sized firms report results.

    随着中小型企业公布结果，更多数据将陆续公布，直到7月份。

    Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckons the final figure will settle at 2% growth in base pay, the highest since 1992.

    高盛银行估计，最终的数字将是基本工资增长2%，这是自1992年以来的最高涨幅。

    Consumer prices have risen at a pace not seen in four decades.

    消费者价格指数以40年来未曾见过的速度上涨。

    Although most of the rise comes from cost-push factors, such as imported food and energy, higher headline numbers have raised expectations and placed pressure on bosses.

    尽管大部分增长是由成本推动的，如进口食品和能源，但更高的整体数据提高了预期，并给老板们带来了压力。

    As Mr Kasahara puts it: “Companies have a responsibility to provide wages that match inflation -- and not just big firms in Tokyo.”

    正如笠原先生所说：“公司有责任提供与通货膨胀相匹配的工资 -- 这不仅仅是指东京的大公司。”

    Tight labour markets have also played a role:

    供不应求的劳动力市场也起到了一定作用：

    Japan has compensated for its shrinking, greying population by bringing more women and elderly into the labour force in recent years, but these opportunities are close to being maxed out.

    近年来，日本通过让更多女性和老年人进入劳动力大军，弥补了人口萎缩和老龄化的影响，但这些办法的效果已经接近极限。

    For both workers and the BOJ, the question is whether the raises are a one-off event or a step change.

    对于雇员和日本银行来说，问题是加薪是一次性事件还是阶段性变化。

    Even this year’s big gains may not be enough to assuage policymakers.

    就算是今年的大幅增长也可能不足以安抚政策制定者。

    Kuroda Haruhiko, the BOJ’s former governor, has said that still higher wage growth will be needed to hit the 2% inflation target.

    日本央行前行长黑田东彦曾表示，要达到2%的通胀目标，还需要更高的工资增长。

    At his final press conference as governor, Mr Kuroda said that although wage negotiations were encouraging, easing should continue.

    黑田东彦在担任行长的最后一次记者会上表示，尽管薪资谈判结果令人鼓舞，但宽松政策还是应该持续下去。

    At his first press conference on April 10th, Mr Ueda sounded much the same note.

    在4月10日植田先生的第一次记者会上，他的语气也大同小异。