2023年经济学人 牛市能持续下去吗?（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Cowabunga

    太牛了

    Investors everywhere are seized by optimism. Can the bull market last?

    所有投资者都沉浸在乐观情绪中，牛市能持续下去吗？

    Bull markets, according to John Templeton, “are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die of euphoria”.

    根据约翰·邓普顿的说法，牛市“诞生于悲观，成长于怀疑，成熟于乐观，消亡于狂喜”。

    The legendary Wall Street fund manager put this philosophy into practice in 1939.

    这位传奇的华尔街基金经理在1939年将这一理念付诸实践。

    At a time when others were panicking about Europe’s descent into war, Templeton borrowed money to buy 100 of every share trading below $1 on the New York Stock Exchange.

    在其他人对欧洲陷入战争感到恐慌之际，邓普顿借钱将纽约证券交易所中价格低于1美元的所有股票每种买入了100股。

    Within a few years he had booked a 400% profit and forged a template for future investors.

    在短短几年内，他就获得了400%的利润，并为未来的投资者打造了一个模板。

    Even in the 21st century, Templeton’s favoured moments of “maximum pessimism” present the very best buying opportunities.

    即使在21世纪，邓普顿最喜欢的“极度悲观”时刻也提供了最好的买入机会。

    In March 2009 investors despaired over the future of capitalism; in March 2020, over a pandemic and shuttered businesses.

    2009年3月，投资者对资本主义的未来感到绝望，2020年3月，投资者对大流行和企业倒闭感到绝望。

    Both times, the correct response was to close your eyes and buy stocks.

    这两次，正确的反应都是闭眼买入股票。

    It now looks like October 2022 should be added to the list.

    现在看来，2022年10月也应该被添加到这个名单上。

    Pessimism was certainly rife.

    当时的悲观情绪当然很普遍。

    Central banks were raising interest rates at their fastest pace in decades.

    各国央行正在以几十年来最快的速度提高利率。

    Inflation was hitting double digits in the euro zone and falling only slowly in America.

    欧元区的通货膨胀率达到了两位数，而美国的通货膨胀率虽有下降却速度很慢。

    Recession seemed just about nailed on.

    经济衰退几乎是板上钉钉的事。

    War had returned to Europe.

    战争又回到了欧洲。

    Across the northern hemisphere, a cold winter threatened to send energy prices soaring again, turning a miserable downturn into a truly dangerous one.

    在整个北半球，寒冷的冬天有可能导致能源价格再次飙升，将悲惨的经济下行变成真正危险的低迷时期。

    America’s S&P 500 index of leading shares was down by nearly one-quarter from its peak; Germany’s DAX by more.

    由主要股票组成的美国标准普尔500指数从最高点下跌了近四分之一，德国的DAX指数跌幅更大。

    True to form, it was an excellent time to buy.

    和往常一样，这是一个绝佳的买入时机。

    The S&P 500 has since risen by 28%.

    自那以来，标准普尔500指数已经上涨了28%。

    That puts it at its highest level in over a year, and within 5% of the all-time peak it reached at the start of 2022.

    这使其处于一年多来的最高水平，距离2022年初达到的历史峰值不到5%。

    Moreover, the rally’s progress has been positively Templetonian.

    此外，反弹的进展也确实是邓普顿式的。

    Born on despair, it then advanced to the scepticism phase.

    诞生于绝望之中，然后进入了怀疑阶段。

    Investors spent months betting that the Federal Reserve would not raise rates as high as its governors insisted they were prepared to lift them, while economists admonished their foolhardiness from the sidelines.

    在为期数月的时间里，投资者押注美联储不会像各位行长坚称的那样提高利率，而经济学家则冷眼告诫他们太过莽撞。

    All the time, with frequent reversals, stocks edged nervily upwards.

    一直以来，随着频繁的事态逆转，股市都在紧张地小幅上扬。

    For a few weeks, as first one then several American regional banks collapsed in the face of rising rates, it looked like the sceptics had won the day.

    几个星期以来，当第一家，随后是好几家美国地区性银行在加息后倒闭时，怀疑论者似乎赢得了胜利。

    Instead, it was time to proceed to the optimism phase.

    相反，是时候进入乐观阶段了。

    Hope of an AI-fuelled productivity boom displaced fears about growth and inflation as the main market narrative.

    对人工智能推动的生产繁荣的希望，取代了对经济增长和通胀的担忧，成为了市场的主要叙事。

    Shares in big tech firms—deemed well-placed to capitalise on such a boom—duly rocketed.

    大型科技公司被认为有从这种繁荣中获利的优势，其股价适时飙升。

    Now the party has spilled over into the rest of the market.

    现在，这场狂欢派对已经蔓延到了市场的其他部分。

    You can see this by comparing America’s benchmark S&P 500 index (which weights companies by their market value and so is dominated by the biggest seven tech firms) with its “equal-weight” cousin (which treats each stock equally).

    通过比较美国基准标准普尔500指数(该指数根据公司的市值对公司进行加权，因此由最大的七家科技公司主导)和其表亲标普500“等权重”指数(对每种股票一视同仁)就能看出这一点。

    From March to June, the tech-heavy benchmark index raced ahead while its cousin stagnated.

    从3月到6月，以科技股为主的基准指数一路高歌猛进，而其表亲却停滞不前。

    Since June both have climbed, but the broader equal-weight index has done better.

    自6月份以来，这两个指数都在攀升，但更广泛的等权重指数表现更好。

    And they have both been trounced by the KBW index of bank stocks.

    而且这两个指数都被KBW银行指数打败。

    What started as a narrowly led climb has broadened into a full-blown bull market.

    起初某几股小幅领先的上升行情已经扩大为全面的牛市。

    It is not just in stockmarket indices that the new mood is apparent.

    这种新情绪不仅只是在股市指数中显而易见。

    Bloomberg, a data provider, collects end-of-year forecasts for the S&P 500 from 23 Wall Street investment firms.

    数据提供商彭博社收集了23家华尔街投资公司对标普500指数的年终预测。

    Since the start of the year, 14 of these institutions have raised their forecasts; just one has lowered it.

    自今年年初以来，这些机构中有14家上调了预测，只有一家下调了预测。

    Retail investors, surveyed every week by the American Association of Individual Investors, are feeling their most bullish since November 2021.

    美国个人投资者协会每周对散户投资者进行调查，散户们感受到了自2021年11月以来最乐观的情绪。

    Even the long-moribund market for initial public offerings may be witnessing green shoots.

    就连长期半死不活的IPO市场也可能看到了复苏的萌芽。

    On July 19th Oddity Tech, an AI beauty firm, sold $424m-worth of its shares by listing on the Nasdaq, a tech-focused exchange.

    7月19日，人工智能美容公司Oddity Tech在专注科技股的纳斯达克交易所上市，出售了价值4.24亿美元的股票。

    Investors had placed orders for more than $10bn.

    投资者已下了逾100亿美元的订单。

    If investors are to keep paying more and more for stocks, which they will have to do to keep the run going, they must believe at least one of three things.

    如果投资者要继续为股票支付越来越高的价格--他们将不得不这样做以维持涨势--那么他们必须相信以下三件事中的至少一件。

    One is that earnings will rise.

    其一是收益将会上升。

    Another is that the alternatives, especially the yield on government bonds, will become less attractive.

    其二是其他投资选择，尤其是政府债券的收益，将变得不那么有吸引力。

    The third is that earnings are so unlikely to disappoint that it is worth coughing up more for stocks and accepting a lower return.

    第三是收益不可能令人失望，因此值得花更多钱买入股票，并接受较低的回报。

    This final belief is captured by a squeezed “equity risk premium”, which measures the excess expected return investors require in order to hold risky shares instead of safer bonds.

    最后一条体现为“股权风险溢价”，它衡量的是投资者持有高风险股票而非较安全的债券所需的超额预期回报。

    This year it has plunged to its lowest since before the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

    今年，该指数已跌至2007至2009年全球金融危机之前以来的最低点。

    The market, in other words, appears on the verge of euphoria.

    换言之，股市似乎正处于狂喜的边缘。

    What would Templeton think of that?

    邓普顿对此会有何看法呢？