2023年经济学人 学生贷款在拖累美国经济（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Tuition drag

    学费的拖累

    The resumption of student-loan payments will hit American growth.

    恢复偿还学生贷款将打击美国的经济增长。

    People are mostly pleased by the return of normal life after covid-19.

    新冠肺炎过后，大多数人都很高兴恢复了正常生活。

    In America, though, borrowers of student loans will miss one aspect of the pandemic.

    然而，在美国，借了助学贷款的人会想念疫情的一个方面。

    Sitting on $1.6trn of debt owed to the government, they have enjoyed a break from both repayments and interest since March 2020.

    他们背负着欠政府的1.6万亿美元债务，自2020年3月以来享受了暂停偿还和支付利息的优惠。

    The holiday is now over.

    现在假期结束了。

    Interest on student loans started to accrue again this month; repayments will resume in October.

    从本月开始助学贷款的利息再次增加，10月份将恢复偿还贷款。

    Given that there are about 43m borrowers, this will drag on the American economy.

    鉴于借款人数约有4300万，偿还贷款将拖累美国经济。

    Exactly how big the drag will be is a matter of debate.

    至于到底会有多大的影响，还有待争论。

    In 2017 the Federal Reserve calculated that the average monthly payment on student debt was $393; other estimates put it closer to $250.

    2017年，美联储计算出学生贷款的月平均还款额为393美元，其他机构的估计是接近250美元。

    Cash has already started flooding into the Treasury as some rush to pay off their debts.

    随着一些人争先恐后地还债，现金已经开始涌入财政部。

    Multiplied by all borrowers, the higher average would add up to a total monthly repayment of $17bn, or about 1% of household consumption.

    将较高的平均还款额乘以借款总人数，每月偿还总额为170亿美元，约占家庭消费的1%。

    Assuming that only part of the repayments comes from savings, that would imply a cut to America’s quarterly annualised growth rate of 0.7 percentage points—or a third of its annualised pace in the first half of this year.

    假设只有部分还款来自储蓄，这意味着美国季度年化增长率将下降0.7个百分点，即今年上半年年化增长率下调三分之一。

    Yet such a drag should be viewed as an upper bound.

    然而，这种程度的拖累应该是最大值。

    Students in university need not repay loans, reducing the number of borrowers facing an imminent crunch.

    大学生不需要偿还贷款，这就减少了迫切需要还款的借款人数。

    Other deferrals are also available—such as for those in the armed forces.

    还有其他的延期情况：比如那些在军队的人。

    In 2019 the Fed calculated that three in ten borrowers did not need to make monthly payments.

    2019年，美联储计算出，十分之三的借款人不需要每月还款。

    Moreover, the Biden administration has introduced a new repayment plan that expands a previously existing programme for reducing the debt burden on poor Americans.

    此外，拜登政府推出了一项新的还款计划，扩大了之前为减轻美国穷人债务负担而实施的计划。

    Borrowers making $32,800 a year or less will be exempted from payments.

    年收入在3.28万美元或以下的借款人将被免除还款。

    Totted up, analysts at Capital Economics, a consultancy, reckon that the bill to households will work out at $6bn or so a month—closer to shaving off about 0.3 percentage points from America’s growth.

    总体而言，咨询公司凯投宏观的分析师估计，家庭每月还款总额将达到60亿美元左右，接近于将美国经济增长率拉低约0.3个百分点。

    Even this drag will be felt when coupled with other looming hits to consumers.

    当与消费者即将面临的其他打击相结合时，即使是这种程度的拖累也会让消费者有所感觉。

    At long last Americans are running down savings from the pandemic.

    最终，美国人将逐渐耗尽疫情期间的储蓄。

    The federal government may be on the brink of a temporary shutdown because of political gridlock.

    由于政治僵局，联邦政府可能处于暂时停摆的边缘。

    And high interest rates are heaping pressure on borrowers: the delinquency rate on credit cards has reached its highest in a decade.

    高利率正在给借款人带来巨大压力：信用卡的违约率已经达到了十年来的最高水平。

    For now, America is on track for a robust third quarter, with some indicators even pointing to annualised growth of above 5%.

    就目前而言，美国第三季度有望实现强劲增长，一些指标甚至显示年化增长率超过5%。

    But the resumption of student-loan payments, combined with the other headwinds, may make for a weaker fourth quarter.

    但学生贷款恢复偿还，再加上其他不利因素，可能会导致第四季度表现疲软。

    The median forecast of economists is just 0.6% annualised growth, according to Blue Chip, a survey of estimates.

    根据预估调查机构蓝筹的数据，经济学家预估的年化增长率中值仅为0.6%。

    By next year, student-loan payments will drop out of growth calculations, because monthly bills will be part of the baseline.

    到明年，学生贷款支付将从增长计算中剔除，因为每月的还款将成为基数的一部分。

    Yet for folk struggling to make payments, the holiday will be difficult to forget.

    然而，对于艰难还款的人们来说，这个假期将是令人难忘的。

    According to Dan Collier of the University of Memphis, who studies the impact of student debt, many borrowers saved money to buy a first home or decided that they could afford to have more children.

    孟菲斯大学的丹·科利尔研究学生债务的影响，他认为许多借款人存了钱准备买第一套房子，或者决定自己有能力生更多孩子。

    Although some still cling to hope that the Biden administration may revive a plan to forgive up to $20,000 per borrower after it was blocked by the Supreme Court in June, the political and legal obstacles are formidable.

    拜登政府计划对每位借款人免除最高2万美元的债务，这一计划在6月被最高法院阻止，一些人仍然对重启计划抱有希望，但该计划面临的政治和法律障碍是巨大的。

    The more likely scenario is that student-debt payments will proceed much as they did before the pandemic: month after month, for years, until graduates have paid down their tuition costs.

    更有可能的情况是，学生债务的偿还将像疫情前一样：一个月接一个月地还款，持续数年，直到毕业生支付完所有学费。

    Normal life is such a drag.

    正常生活就是如此令人讨厌。（注：此处为双关，drag可以指“拖累”或“令人厌烦的事”。）