2023年经济学人 美国国债将难以保持稳定性（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Forget the Fed

    忘掉美联储

    Investors are paying more attention than ever to the world’s safest assets.

    投资者比以往更加关注世界上最安全的资产。

    Regular and predictable.

    有规律的和可预测的。

    That has been the golden rule of Treasury issuance for 40 years.

    40年来，这一直是美国国债发行的黄金法则。

    America’s fiscal branch once funded itself with “tactical” bond sales.

    美国的财政部门曾经通过“战术性”债券出售来筹集资金。

    Officials would survey market participants and issue debt in response.

    官员们会对市场参与者进行调查，并据此发行债券。

    But this process proved highly disruptive to financial activity.

    但事实证明，这一过程会严重干扰金融活动。

    So in 1982 they adopted a new approach: a regular schedule of issuance would be followed, communicated long in advance.

    因此，在1982年，官员们采用了一种新方法：遵循有规律的发行时间表，提前很长时间就公布发行计划。

    Treasury officials now think that, by reducing overall borrowing costs, this strategy has saved taxpayers a fortune.

    财政部官员现在认为，通过降低总体借贷成本，这一策略为纳税人节省了一大笔钱。

    As a part of this regularly scheduled programme the Treasury has, for decades, released a “quarterly refunding announcement” in which it lays out its plans for the next three months.

    作为这种定期计划的一部分，几十年来，财政部都会发布“季度再融资公告”，列出未来3个月的计划。

    This is not generally a hotly anticipated event, being precisely the kind of wonkish release that seldom attracts wider interest.

    这通常不是那种人们会热切期盼的事件，而恰恰是那种很少引起广泛兴趣的、关于政策细节的乏味公告。

    But on November 1st the announcement was pretty much all that Wall Street cared about.

    但在11月1日，华尔街最关心的就是这份公告。

    Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets, an investment bank, declared this a “unique moment in market history”, because the refunding announcement was more important than the meeting of the Federal Reserve, which took place later the same day.

    蒙特利尔银行投行子公司的伊恩·林根称，这是“金融市场历史上独一无二的时刻”，因为再融资公告比美联储会议更重要（美联储会议在当天晚些时候召开）。

    “All that matters at this moment is supply.”

    “此时此刻最重要的就是供应。”

    Investors’ interest has been piqued for several reasons.

    投资者的兴趣被激起有几个原因。

    America’s fiscal deficit is large.

    美国的财政赤字很庞大。

    It will clock in at almost 6% of GDP for the fiscal year of 2022-23.

    在2022至2023财年，赤字将达到GDP的近6%。

    It has been pushed upwards by high interest rates, which have increased the cost of servicing America’s national debt.

    高利率推高了赤字，因为高利率增加了美国偿还国家债务利息的成本。

    This has put pressure on bond markets.

    这给债券市场带来了压力。

    In August, at the last refunding announcement, the market appeared surprised by both the increase in total issuance and just how much of it was long-dated.

    今年8月，即上一次宣布再融资时，市场似乎对总发行量的增长以及有如此多的长期债券感到惊讶。

    In the weeks that followed several auctions “tailed”—trader-speak for the auction resulting in debt being issued at a higher yield than expected.

    在接下来的几周里，几次国债拍卖出现“尾部”--交易员的行话，意思是拍卖导致债券实际的收益率高于预期收益率。

    Some traders think this exacerbated the almighty sell-off in long-dated bonds that has occurred since the summer.

    一些交易员认为，这加剧了自夏季以来长期债券的抛售。

    Since August 1st the yield on T-bills, the name given to short-dated Treasuries which mature within a year, has not budged at all.

    自8月1日以来，T券（一年内到期的短期国债）的收益率没有丝毫变化。

    Yields have spiked, however, for long-dated bonds that mature in ten or 30 years.

    然而，10年或30年期的长期债券的收益率已经飙升。

    The difference between what it costs to borrow in the short term and the long term is called the “term premium”—and it has returned with a vengeance.

    短期借贷成本和长期借贷成本之间的差额被称为“期限溢价”，这种溢价再次回归，且数额更大。

    In the event, markets were relieved by the Treasury’s announcement.

    结果，财政部的公告让市场松了一口气。

    Planned issuance was increased, but will be concentrated at the short end.

    计划发行的国债量增加了，但大多是短期债券。

    Exactly the same value of 20-year Treasuries will be issued in the three months from November as in the three that preceded it, but almost 20% more two-year Treasuries will be sold.

    从11月份开始的之后三个月里，20年期美国国债的发行量将与之前三个月完全相同，但两年期国债的发行量将增加近20%。

    Currently, short-dated T-bill issuance is more than one-fifth of total debt issuance.

    目前，短期国库券发行量占总发行量的五分之一以上。

    Although that is slightly above historical levels, the issuance committee indicated that it might be willing to go higher still.

    尽管这一数字略高于历史水平，但发行委员会表示，可能愿意进一步提高发行量。

    As noted in the minutes of their meeting, committee members “supported meaningful deviation” from the range.

    正如会议纪要所指出的那样，委员会成员“支持有意义地偏离”历史范围。

    Markets embraced all of this news.

    市场欣然接受了所有这些消息。

    The yield on the ten-year Treasury fell about ten basis points after the release.

    公告发布后，10年期美国国债收益率下跌了约10个基点。

    That the Treasury managed to reassure investors this time round is a pleasing outcome for all involved.

    财政部这一次成功地安抚了投资者，这对所有人来说都是一个令人高兴的结果。

    Its officials are sticking to their procedure as far as regular programming is concerned—they will, in three months’ time, publish their next set of issuance plans.

    官员们仍然坚持定期发行程序，他们将在三个月后公布下一轮发行计划。

    But with markets so volatile it is becoming ever harder for the Treasury to remain predictable.

    但市场如此动荡，财政部越来越难以保持其可预测性。