2023年经济学人 欧洲央行需要尽快应对经济疲软（在线收听）

    Finance and economics

    财经版块

    Recession response

    应对经济衰退

    Euro moans

    欧洲的怨言

    The continent's economy is in a bad way. Policymakers risk being slow to react.

    欧洲的经济状况很糟糕。政策制定者有反应迟缓的危险。

    European stocks and bonds have had a lot to deal with in recent years, not least war, an energy crisis and surging inflation.

    近年来，欧洲的股票和债券需要应对很多问题，尤其是战争、能源危机和飙升的通胀。

    Now things are looking up.

    现在，情况正在好转。

    Germany’s DAX index of shares has added 14% since the start of November.

    自11月初以来，德国DAX股指已经上涨了14%。

    Yields on French ten-year government bonds have dropped from 3.5% in October to 2.6%.

    法国十年期政府债券的收益率已从10月份的3.5%降至2.6%。

    Even Italian yields have fallen below 4%, from 5% in mid-October.

    就连意大利国债的收益率也从10月中旬的5%跌至4%以下。

    Investors are upbeat in part because inflation is falling faster than expected.

    投资者之所以乐观，部分原因是通胀下降的速度快于预期。

    Yet their mood also reflects a grimmer reality: the economy is so weak that surely interest-rate cuts are not far away.

    然而，他们的情绪也反映了一个更严峻的现实：经济如此疲软，降息肯定不远了。

    Will policymakers follow through?

    政策制定者会顺势降息吗？

    In November inflation stood at 2.4%, within a whisker of the European Central Bank’s target of 2%.

    11月份的通货膨胀率为2.4%，距离欧洲央行2%的目标只有一步之遥。

    On December 13th America’s Federal Reserve sent out doveish signals.

    12月13日，美国联邦储备委员会发出了鸽派信号。（即维持利率区间不变。）Markets are now pricing in at least three ECB cuts by June, with about six in total by October, to bring down the main rate to about 2.5%.

    目前市场预期，欧洲央行将在2024年6月前至少降息3次，到10月总共降息约6次，将主要利率降至2.5%左右。

    “The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely,” admitted Isabel Schnabel, a hawkish ECB board member, recently.

    “最新的通胀数据表明，进一步加息的可能性很小。”欧洲央行管委会鹰派成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔最近承认。

    At the same time, though, there have been no hints of cuts, and economists expect fewer than markets.

    不过，与此同时，也没有任何降息的迹象，经济学家比市场预计的降息次数也更少。

    Certainly nobody was expecting one at the meeting on December 14th, which was due to take place just after The Economist had gone to press.

    当然，没有人预期在12月14日的会议上会降息（会议在本期《经济学人》付印后召开）。

    Since Europe’s economy is weakening fast, officials risk being slow to react.

    由于欧洲经济正在迅速走弱，官员们面临反应迟缓的危险。

    There are two reasons for concern.

    有两个理由令人担忧。

    The first is wage growth.

    首先是工资增长。

    Initially, inflation was driven by rising energy prices and snarled supply chains, which pushed up the price of goods.

    最初，通胀是由不断上涨的能源价格和混乱的供应链造成的，从而推高了商品价格。

    Since pay deals are often agreed for a number of years in Europe’s unionised labour market, wages and prices of services took longer to respond.

    由于欧洲的劳动力市场都有工会组织，薪酬协议往往是为期数年的，因此工资和服务价格需要更长时间才能（对物价上涨）做出反应。

    By the third quarter of 2023 German real wages had fallen to roughly their level in 2015.

    到2023年第三季度，德国实际工资已降至与2015年大致相当的水平。

    Now they are recovering lost ground.

    现在，工资水平正在恢复。

    Similarly, Dutch collectively bargained wages grew by 7% in October and November, compared with a year earlier, even as inflation hovered around zero.

    同样，尽管通胀率徘徊在零附近，荷兰也在10月和11月进行集体谈判，使工资与去年同期相比增长了7%。

    Overall wage growth in euro-zone countries is about 5%.

    欧元区国家的整体薪资增幅约为5%。

    If such wage growth continues, inflation might tick up in 2024—the ECB’s great fear.

    如果工资继续这样增长，2024年的通胀率可能会上升，这是欧洲央行最大的担忧。

    Yet there are signs that pay increases have already started to come down.

    然而，有迹象表明，工资增长幅度已经开始回落。

    Indeed, a hiring platform, tracks job advertisements.

    招聘平台Indeed追踪调查了招聘广告。

    It finds that pay growth in listings has slowed, suggesting that wages will soon follow.

    该平台发现，上市公司的工资增长已经放缓，这表明工资很快就会随之下降。

    Moreover, wage growth does not always lead to inflation.

    此外，工资增长并不总是会导致通胀。

    Corporate profits, which saw a bump in 2022 when demand was high and wages were low, might take a hit.

    但企业利润可能会受到打击，在2022年需求高、工资低的时候，企业利润出现了增长。

    There is some indication that margins are shrinking.

    有一些迹象表明，利润率正在缩小。

    The second reason for concern is the health of the overall economy.

    第二个令人担忧的原因是整体经济的健康状况。

    It has struggled with weak international demand, including from China, and high energy prices.

    欧洲一直在努力应对国际需求疲软（包括来自中国的需求减少）和能源价格高企的问题。

    Now surveys suggest that both manufacturing and services are contracting gently.

    现在调查显示，制造业和服务业都在温和收缩。

    A consumption boom in parts of Europe is already fading: monetary policy itself is weighing on bigger debt-financed purchases and mortgage-holders are scaling back to meet larger monthly payments.

    欧洲部分地区的消费热潮已经在消退：货币政策本身正在对大规模的举债购买行为造成压力，抵押贷款持有者正在减少消费，以偿还更多的月度还款。

    Declining market interest rates ought to help ease financial conditions for both consumers and investors, and therefore reduce the need for the ECB’s policymakers to move quickly.

    不断下降的市场利率应该有助于缓解消费者和投资者的财务状况，从而降低欧洲央行迅速采取行动的必要性。

    However, there is a catch.

    然而，这其中有一个隐藏问题。

    As Davide Oneglia of TS Lombard, a research firm, points out, these lower market interest rates mostly reflect falling inflation, and so do not produce lower real rates.

    正如研究公司TS隆巴德的戴维德·奥内格里亚所指出的，这些较低的市场利率主要反映了通胀的下降，因此不会带来较低的实际利率。

    As a result, they are unlikely to do all that much to stimulate demand.

    因此，下降的市场利率不会对刺激需求产生太大作用。

    There is one more reason for central bankers to get a move on.

    央行官员需要采取行动还有一个理由。

    Interest-rate changes affect the economy with a substantial delay.

    利率变化对经济的影响会有很大的延迟。

    It takes time for higher rates to alter investment and spending decisions, and subsequently to produce lower demand.

    利率上升要过一段时间才会对投资和消费产生影响，随后才会降低需求。

    The full brunt of changes in rates usually takes a year or more to be felt, which means that many of the ECB’s rate rises are still to feed through.

    利率变化的全面冲击通常需要一年或更长时间才能感受到，这意味着欧洲央行的许多加息举措的作用此时还未显现。

    Policymakers have probably tightened too much.

    政策制定者可能将货币收得太紧了。

    This dynamic has a flipside: rate cuts in the next few months would not affect the economy until the end of 2024, by when few expect inflation still to be a problem and many expect the economy still to be struggling.

    这种动态也有另一面：未来几个月的降息直到2024年底才会影响经济，到那时，几乎没有人预计通胀仍将是一个问题，但许多人预计经济仍将举步维艰。

    The ECB’s policymakers will want to be close to the bloc’s “neutral” interest rate, which is somewhere between 1.5 and 2%, reckons Mr Oneglia, lest they continue to push down demand.

    奥内格里亚认为，欧洲央行最好向欧盟的“中性”利率（即1.5%到2%之间）靠近，以免其政策继续压低需求。

    Starting early would mean that the central bank would be able to avoid having to cut too aggressively during the summer of 2024.

    提早开始降息意味着，欧洲央行能够避免在2024年夏天不得不大幅降息。

    January’s inflation data could be volatile, in part because government-assistance schemes introduced during the energy crisis are being phased out.

    1月份的通胀数据可能会波动，部分原因是政府在能源危机期间推出的援助计划正在逐步取消。

    If price rises accelerate once again, the ECB would probably become even more cautious.

    如果物价再次加速上涨，欧洲央行可能会变得更加谨慎。

    Wage data is published with a long lag in Europe, and officials are often reluctant to rely on real-time indicators, such as the data published by Indeed.

    欧洲公布的薪资数据有很长的滞后性，官员们往往不愿依据实时指标，比如Indeed公布的实时数据。

    That is why economists do not expect rate cuts until June, much later than suggested by current market pricing.

    这就是为什么经济学家预计6月份之前不会降息，而这比当前市场定价所暗示的降息时间要晚得多。

    The ECB was too slow to react to rising inflation.

    当初欧洲央行对不断上升的通胀反应太慢。

    Now it runs the risk of being too slow on the way down as well.

    现在，它也面临着对通胀下降反应太慢的危险。