2023年经济学人 如何预测抛硬币(2)（在线收听）

    Enter Mr Bartos, and his admirable dedication to empiricism.

    巴托斯先生登场了，他对经验主义的奉献令人钦佩。

    He convinced 48 volunteers to perform 350,707 coin tosses, using everything from an Indian two-rupee piece to a Swiss two-franc coin.

    他说服48名志愿者投掷了350,707枚硬币，硬币从印度的两卢比硬币到瑞士的两法郎硬币都使用到了。

    His data confirmed what the physics had predicted.

    他的数据证实了物理学的预测。

    The coins landed same-side up 50.8% of the time.

    硬币在同一面落地时的概率高达50.8%。

    The statistics revealed that the coins themselves showed no particular bias.

    统计数据显示，硬币本身并没有表现出特别的偏差。

    The determining factor was indeed humans’ apparent inability to throw straight.

    决定性的因素确实是人类明显没扔直。

    Mr Bartos was not the first person to collect statistics on coin tosses.

    巴托斯并不是第一个收集掷硬币数据的人。

    But he is the first to have done so on a scale large enough to detect the bias.

    但他是第一个在足够大的范围内检测到偏差的人。

    (A previous effort of 40,000 tosses, conducted by two students at the University of California, Berkeley, lacked the statistical power to confirm the theory.)(之前加州大学伯克利分校的两名学生进行了4万次投掷实验，缺乏证实这一理论的统计能力。)A 50.8% chance is only very slightly different from perfect fairness.

    50.8%的概率与完全公平只有很小的差别。

    But Mr Bartos points out that it is bigger than the advantage enjoyed by a casino in most varieties of blackjack.

    但巴托斯先生指出，这比在赌场大多数种类的21点游戏中所享有的优势更大。

    And in some situations it may matter.

    在某些情况下，这可能很重要。

    In 2019 Sue Cudilla became mayor of Araceli, a town in the Philippines, on the toss of a coin after the election had been declared a dead heat.

    2019年，在选举宣布进入白热化后，苏·库迪拉通过抛硬币成为菲律宾阿拉切利镇的市长。

    Even more importantly, a coin toss can determine who bowls or bats first in cricket.

    更重要的是，掷硬币可以决定板球比赛中谁先投球或先击球。

    Professional athletes spend thousands of dollars and hours of training in search of marginal gains.

    职业运动员花费数千美元和数小时的训练寻求的只是边际收益。

    Perhaps they should look to the loose change in the umpire’s pocket.

    也许他们应该指望裁判口袋里的硬币。