VOA标准英语2008年-Weather Forecasting Plays Crucial Role in Beiji（在线收听）

An Olympic weather satellite launch at Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern Shanxi Province, 27 May 2008

The success of the Beijing Olympics will largely be determined by athletic prowess and record setting results. But, Director of Research at the World Meteorological Organization, Leonard Barrie, tells VOA, the weather can make or break a sporting event.

"Weather affects the conditions in which the athletes have to perform," said Leonard Barrie. "A thunderstorm in the middle of a 100 yard dash is not very desirable, but inevitable in many cases."

As it turns out, thunderstorms are hard to predict. But, Barrie says other weather phenomena can be forecast with a great degree of accuracy several days in advance.

He says many countries such as Australia, Canada, France, Japan and the United States have expertise in weather forecasting and have brought their most sophisticated systems to Beijing. He says they are doing unique high resolution forecasting for the six to 36-hour period.

"They attempt to tell the organizers and the athletes and their managers what is expected as far as severe weather that would affect them-high winds and precipitation, rain," he said. "And then, on time scales from six to zero hours, we have something called the Now Casting project."
　

Beijing Olympic national stadium, known as Bird's Nest, covered by haze, 28 Jul 2008

In Now Casting, Barrie explains meteorologists use weather radar to locate where rain or thunderstorms may be occurring. With this information, he says it is possible to know when the bad weather can be expected to arrive in Beijing.

The Olympic organizers have said they would try certain measures to stop the rain from falling and spoiling championship events. Barrie pours cold water on this plan.

"Weather modification has very limited number of true successes on record," said Barrie.

So as not to throw a damper on the event, Barrie notes the weather forecast indicates that the opening day of the summer games will have very reasonable weather. But, he adds, he does not know whether there will be a thunderstorm. That, he say, is unpredictable.