VOA慢速英语2013 American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

 

American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

 

From VOA Learning English, this is IN THE NEWS in Special English.

A new American intelligence report this week predicted Asia’s economic power rising in the coming years. The report says that by the year 2030, the United States will no longer be the superpower it is today. It says that no nation will have that kind of influence, with power instead redirected to coalitions¹ between countries.  

The report comes from the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The document was researched and written by experts from outside the government. They say the findings are meant to help policymakers in their long-term planning on major issues. 

The report says the world will look different by 2030. The economy in Asia will be larger than that of North America and Europe combined. China will have the largest economy in the world. And the Chinese economy will be 140 percent greater than Japan’s economy. 

Some observers say China needs to take steps before it can become the world’s biggest economy. Patrick Chovanec is with Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He believes that several things could affect the country’s economic growth. 

“China’s growth is extremely resource dependent and those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer. In particular, water, in northern China, there is a growing scarcity² of water, and that along with other resource constraints³ might limit China’s prospects⁴ of going forward.”  

Patrick Chovanec says the average age in China is rising because of the country’s one-child policy. He says there are concerns China will grow old before it is wealthy enough to support its growing population. 

The new report also says the world economy will be more dependent on the health of developing countries, instead of the West. It says there will be a higher demand on resources as the world’s population expands from seven-point-one billion today to eight billion people.

The report says nearly half of the population will live in areas with severe water issues. It says limited water resources and farmland could increase the risk of conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Experts are predicting that the United States could become more active in settling disputes in the future. As a mediator⁵, America could work to prevent what the report calls violence created from insecurity in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

"What the world is looking for from the United States - and it’s not the world - individual states look for protection, they look - in some cases - for the ability to organize.  I mean if you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are waiting for is for the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what's been missing has been the United States playing that role."     

The writers of the report say their findings are not meant to predict the future, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures⁶. The report adds that the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together and lead international cooperation.

1 coalitions   

结合体，同盟( coalition的名词复数 )； （两党或多党）联合政府

参考例句：

• History testifies to the ineptitude of coalitions in waging war. 历史昭示我们，多数国家联合作战，其进行甚为困难。
• All the coalitions in history have disintegrated sooner or later. 历史上任何联盟迟早都垮台了。

2 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

3 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

4 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

5 mediator   

n.调解人，中介人

参考例句：

• He always takes the role of a mediator in any dispute.他总是在争论中充当调停人的角色。
• He will appear in the role of mediator.他将出演调停者。

6 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。