VOA慢速英语2014--伊拉克动乱威胁土耳其经济

 

AS IT IS 2014-07-13 Iraqi Unrest Threatens Turkish Economy 伊拉克动乱威胁土耳其经济

In Turkey, many people are concerned about the economic effects of unrest across the border in Iraq.  The country is Turkey’s second largest trading partner.  Turkish companies export about $14 billion a year to Iraq.

Recently, the militant¹ Islamist group ISIL made major military gains in Iraq.  Now experts are debating the effect on the Turkish economy.  

Sinan Ulgen is a visiting scholar for the Carnegie Institute in Brussels.

"Turkey’s export to the countries in the region have been affected² on two grounds.  One because of the instability of course, but the other one is because of the land routes to other markets in the Middle East have been blocked by the instability in Iraq and Syria."

But observers say the effects on Turkish exports to Iraq could have been worse.  That is because around 75 percent of those exports are to the relatively³ secure Iraqi Kurdish area.  It has largely escaped the militant group’s offensive.

However, Turkish trade that passes through Iraq to the wealthy Gulf⁴ markets is a different issue.  Atilla Yesilada works for Global Source Partners, which a business specializing in developing economies.  He says the Iraq crisis comes at a time of rising diplomatic tensions between Egypt and Turkey.

"The Egyptian authorities have started causing troubles for our trucks and ferries.  [About] 30,000 lorries, trucks, had been traveling to Iraq before the crisis and now that the number has dropped to say 5,000."

Turkish economic problems could worsen as the ISIL continues to threaten security in the area.

Another concern, warns Mr. Yesilada, is rising oil prices.  He says the rising prices could bring inflationary pressure, in the near to medium term, for energy importer Turkey.  

"[It] could expand over time.  The most obvious example is the price of oil.  Every $10 jump in Brent oil adds $4 billion to our energy deficit⁵."

Sinan Ulgen says that situation is likely to depend on whether the threat of ISIL can be contained.  He says if the situation in Iraq gets worse, so will Turkey’s economy.

"The most important, whether, if, the situation continues to worsen, then Turkey’s [international] risk perception can be affected, which will raise the cost of capital for Turkey and Turkish companies, that will be even more crucial for the Turkish economy."

Observers note that strong economic growth marked the first 10 years of rule under the AK Party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  But growth in the past few years has slowed.  

Prime Minister Erdogan now is campaigning for the presidency⁶.  The presidential elections are to take place in August, with general elections set for June 2015.  Observers say keeping the economy growing could prove to be Mr. Erdogan’s greatest test.  

1 militant   

adj.激进的，好斗的；n.激进分子，斗士

参考例句：

• Some militant leaders want to merge with white radicals.一些好斗的领导人要和白人中的激进派联合。
• He is a militant in the movement.他在那次运动中是个激进人物。

2 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

3 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

4 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

5 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

6 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。