VOA慢速英语2015 朝鲜会造更多的核武器吗?

AS IT IS 2015-03-03 Can North Korea Build More Nuclear Weapons? 朝鲜会造更多的核武器吗?

A new report says North Korea could have as many as 100 nuclear weapons by 2020. That includes the 16 to 20 such weapons the report’s writer says the closed country already has. Not everyone agrees North Korea will be able to build that many more nuclear weapons in the next five years, but most experts believe it will have more nuclear weapons in 2020 than it has today.

The Institute for Science and International Security released the report this week. It said the number of nuclear weapons North Korea will have five years from now depends upon how fast the weapons are made. It also says North Korea is likely to be able to develop small nuclear weapons that can be placed on long-range missiles.

Not everyone agrees with the estimates, including South Korea’s defense¹ ministry². Kim Min-seok is a spokesman for the ministry. He says ministry officials do not think the North has as many nuclear weapons as the report suggests.

He says the analysis that North Korea has 10 to 16 nuclear weapons is just an assumption by some private groups and experts. He says there is no evidence to support this.

Bruce Bennett is a defense expert at the RAND Corporation, a research group. He does not believe North Korea can build enough nuclear weapons in the next five years to have 100 of them. He says making that many would require building and operating a new nuclear reactor³ and starting a strong program of uranium enrichment. He says the number is likely to be 50.

“If they have 50 nuclear weapons they can probably kill about, oh, 10 to 20 million people with those weapons. So that’s a huge difference and it gives them significantly more coercive power against South Korea, against Japan and against the United States.”

Experts say countries are not more dangerous just because they have more nuclear weapons. They say nations that have nuclear weapons do not use them because they know if they do, they will be attacked by other countries with such weapons. Experts call this “mutually assured destruction.”

Daniel Pinkston is an expert on Korea at the International Crisis Group, which describes itself as an “independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization.” Mr. Pinkston says because of the behavior North Korea's leaders have shown in the past, he is worried they might launch a nuclear attack.

“North Korea, because of how domestic politics work inside the country and how they use force and coercion⁴ to achieve their political aims, that they may attempt to use their nuclear arsenal⁵ to achieve their goals and objectives.”

Bruce Bennett says it is possible North Korea might use nuclear weapons in an attack on other Asian nations because of political problems in the North. He also says the North might sell nuclear weapons to other countries or terrorists to use in an attack against the United States.

“It could try to sell them to third parties -- they could be nation-states that it tries to ally with. They could be terrorist groups. And if they’re terrorist groups (it is) very hard to deter⁶ a terrorist group, and a terrorist group by and large would want to target the United States.”

Shin In-kyun is an expert at the Korea Defense Network. He says the United States and its allies should attack North Korean missile centers before the North can develop nuclear weapons that can be placed on missiles.

He says now is the time to attack the missile sites with air strikes because North Korea does not now have the ability to attack the United States with nuclear weapons.

Other experts say such an attack could start a larger conflict.

Mr. Bennett says South Korea is building a system that would use ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft and armed unmanned planes called drones to attack North Korea if it launches a missile attack. The United States decided⁷ not to deploy⁸ a missile defense system in South Korea after China and the South voiced concerns.

Leaders of the United States and its allies do not believe they should recognize or negotiate with North Korea as a nuclear state. Experts say these leaders would lose political support if they did so. Even China and Russia, which support North Korea, believe the Korean peninsula should be free of nuclear weapons.

Negotiators involved in meetings include the United States, North and South Korea, China, Russia and Japan. So far those talks have failed to persuade North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program. The negotiators have told the North they would give more aid to the economically-poor country if it stopped building nuclear weapons.

The United Nations approved economic restrictions⁹ on North Korea after the North carried out a nuclear weapons test in 2013. Those sanctions have not caused the North to change its behavior. However, Mr. Pinkston says nations should continue to pressure the North to end its nuclear weapons program.

“North Korean leaders are, are rational. They wish to survive. I think they can be deterred¹⁰. They are deterred up until today. They were deterred yesterday. And so deterrence¹¹ continues to work.”

He says the North’s economy is suffering because of the country’s decision to continue its nuclear program. He says the country cannot live with such suffering forever.

Words in This Story

analysis – n. a careful study of something to learn about its parts, what they do and how they are related to each other

assumption – n. something that is believed to be true or probably true but that is not known to be true; something that is assumed

coercive – adj. using force or threats to make someone do something; using coercion

domestic – adj. of, relating to or made inside a country

arsenal – n. a collection of weapons

sanctions – n. an action that is taken or an order that is given to force a country to obey international laws by limiting or stopping trade with that country or by not allowing economic aid for that country (usually plural)

deter – v. to prevent (something) from happening

1 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。

2 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

3 reactor   

n.反应器；反应堆

参考例句：

• The atomic reactor generates enormous amounts of thermal energy.原子反应堆发出大量的热能。
• Inside the reactor the large molecules are cracked into smaller molecules.在反应堆里，大分子裂变为小分子。

4 coercion   

n.强制，高压统治

参考例句：

• Neither trickery nor coercion is used to secure confessions.既不诱供也不逼供。
• He paid the money under coercion.他被迫付钱。

5 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

6 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

7 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

8 deploy   

v.（军）散开成战斗队形，布置，展开

参考例句：

• The infantry began to deploy at dawn.步兵黎明时开始进入战斗位置。
• The president said he had no intention of deploying ground troops.总统称并不打算部署地面部队。

9 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

10 deterred   

v.阻止，制止( deter的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• I told him I wasn't interested, but he wasn't deterred. 我已告诉他我不感兴趣，可他却不罢休。
• Jeremy was not deterred by this criticism. 杰里米没有因这一批评而却步。 来自辞典例句

11 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。