VOA慢速英语--How Will Machines and AI Change the Future of Work?

 

Several recent studies examined how machine automation and artificial intelligence (AI) will change the future of work.

Some estimates predict these technologies could displace up to 30 percent of workers worldwide by 2030.

One study was published by PricewaterhouseCoopers, an international company providing financial and tax services. It predicted about 38 percent of American jobs could be at high risk for automation by the early 2030s. In Germany, up to 35 percent of jobs could be at risk. The company said about 30 percent could be affected¹ in Britain and 21 percent in Japan.

The risk of being displaced will greatly increase for workers with less education, PricewaterhouseCoopers said. It estimated that in Britain, up to 46 percent of workers without a college degree could be at risk due to automation. This would drop to about 12 percent for workers with undergraduate degrees or higher.

“New smart machines have the potential to replace our minds and to move around freely in the world,” the study said. It added that the greatest job displacement² is expected to come in the areas of transportation, storage, manufacturing and retail³.

The Rand Corporation recently issued its own report on the future effects of automation and AI on jobs and the workplace. Osonde Osoba was a co-author of the report. He noted⁴ that fears over machines taking jobs from humans goes back centuries.

In 16th century England, Queen Elizabeth famously refused an inventor’s request for a patent for a device to make material for clothing. The Queen explained that the device would lead to major job losses, forcing affected workers to become “beggars.”

Osoba agrees there will be major job disruptions due to AI and automation, especially for lower skilled workers. But he told VOA he believes the future problems have been overestimated⁵ without historical evidence to back up the predictions.

“It’s not so much that the jobs are getting displaced, it’s more like tasks are getting displaced and jobs are reconfiguring over time to account for that automation.”

He added that it will be very difficult for companies to completely automate⁶ most jobs, because they require a worker to perform many different duties and to react to unexpected situations.

The RAND report identifies three job types that will be very difficult to replace with a machine. These include jobs depending on human motor skills, positions requiring creative thinking and actions, and jobs dealing⁷ with intense social interaction.

There are recent examples of companies like Google and Facebook using AI to limit certain kinds of content. Osoba says this can be problematic for machines, which do not understand cultural norms in the population.

“So that understanding of cultural norms, or social norms or ethical⁸ norms, that’s not something that’s easy – at least so far we haven’t found that easy to program into artificial intelligence.”

The McKinsey Global Institute, a private think tank, has also studied the issue. Its research suggests that up to one-third of work activities across 46 nations could be displaced by 2030. The organization’s report predicts automation could force 75 million to 375 million workers into new job areas by 2030.

McKinsey identified several jobs that will not be easily replaceable by machines. These include health-care providers, engineers, scientists, accountants, technology experts and managers. It also predicted rising demand for educators, and “creatives,” a group of workers including artists, performers and entertainers.

The study said automation will also raise productivity and economic growth. It said this growth – along with other economic influences - could help offset⁹ the displacement of millions of workers.

“All workers will need to adapt, as their occupations evolve alongside increasingly capable machines,” the report said.

McKinsey says this will require ongoing¹⁰ retraining of workers. In addition, employees will be spending more time on activities difficult to automate. This includes tasks requiring emotional, creative and cognitive¹¹ skills, the study said.

Rand Corporation’s Osonde Osoba agrees. He says workers will increasingly have to be willing and prepared to regularly change jobs and roles to keep up with technology.

“If you are thinking about concrete things an individual might do to prepare themselves, I guess being more adaptable¹², being more flexible, being able to reeducate yourself to fit into a different job.”

He added that there will be a great need in the future for many more AI developers and researchers. For this reason, he suggests young people interested in these areas start their career paths early to prepare for these high-paying, competitive jobs.

I’m Bryan Lynn.

Words in This Story

displace – v. force people to move from one place, job, etc. to another

retail – n. the activity of selling products to the public

patent – n. official document giving a person or company the right to be the only one that makes or sells a product for a certain period of time

beggar – n. person who lives by asking people to give them money, food, etc.

disruption – n. causing something to be unable to continue in the normal way

reconfigure – v. change the way something is arranged or prepared

filter – v. remove something unwanted

ethical – adj. involving questions of right and wrong behavior

evolve – v. to develop or make something develop over time

cognitive – adj. of, relating to, or involving conscious mental activities

concrete – adj. of or related to a real thing, people or actions

flexible – adj. able to easily change or adapt to a situation

1 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

2 displacement   

n.移置，取代，位移，排水量

参考例句：

• They said that time is the feeling of spatial displacement.他们说时间是空间位移的感觉。
• The displacement of all my energy into caring for the baby.我所有精力都放在了照顾宝宝上。

3 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

4 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

5 overestimated   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They overestimated his ability when they promoted him. 他们提拔他的时候高估了他的能力。
• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。

6 automate   

v.自动化；使自动化

参考例句：

• Many banks have begun to automate.许多银行已开始采用自动化技术。
• To automate the control process of the lathes has become very easy today.使机床的控制过程自动化现已变得很容易了。

7 dealing   

n.经商方法，待人态度

参考例句：

• This store has an excellent reputation for fair dealing.该商店因买卖公道而享有极高的声誉。
• His fair dealing earned our confidence.他的诚实的行为获得我们的信任。

8 ethical   

adj.伦理的，道德的，合乎道德的

参考例句：

• It is necessary to get the youth to have a high ethical concept.必须使青年具有高度的道德观念。
• It was a debate which aroused fervent ethical arguments.那是一场引发强烈的伦理道德争论的辩论。

9 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

10 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

11 cognitive   

adj.认知的，认识的，有感知的

参考例句：

• As children grow older,their cognitive processes become sharper.孩子们越长越大，他们的认知过程变得更为敏锐。
• The cognitive psychologist is like the tinker who wants to know how a clock works.认知心理学者倒很像一个需要通晓钟表如何运转的钟表修理匠。

12 adaptable   

adj.能适应的，适应性强的，可改编的

参考例句：

• He is an adaptable man and will soon learn the new work.他是个适应性很强的人，很快就将学会这种工作。
• The soil is adaptable to the growth of peanuts.这土壤适宜于花生的生长。