VOA慢速英语--美国经济是否接近衰退？

Is the US Economy Nearing a Recession?

Financial markets are giving warning signs of a recession. At the same time, the world economy is weakening, and the trade war between the United States and China has intensified¹.

All of which is raising concerns about the U.S. economy and about whether the country’s record-breaking, 10-year expansion is nearing an end.

On Wednesday, a change in interest rates caused many investors² to worry: The interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury³ bond briefly⁴ dropped below the rate on the 2-year Treasury bond for the first time since 2007.

Usually, investors earn higher interest on longer-term bonds than on short-term ones. Put another way, the U.S. government will usually pay more interest to investors who are willing to let out their money for longer periods.

So, when longer-term Treasurys pay less than shorter-term ones, economists⁶ call it an inverted⁷ yield curve. An inverted curve suggests that investors expect the economy to slow so much that the U.S. central bank will soon feel forced to cut short-term rates to try to support the economy.

This is a sign of economic pessimism⁸. Inverted curves are very good at predicting recessions: They have happened before in each of the past five recessions.

The inversion⁹ sent stock prices down a lot on Wednesday. The leading measure of U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell 800 points, or 3%. An inversion, however, does not say when a recession will arrive. In the past, there have been about two years between an inversion and a recession.

So are we nearing a recession?

Many economists worry that chances of a recession are rising. Julia Coronado is the chief economist⁵ at MacroPolicy Perspectives, which follows the U.S. economy. She sees a 40% probability of a recession within the next 12 months. Last month, she thought the likelihood was 30%.

Her concerns, and the worries of other economists, are partly the result of the U.S.-China trade war. The trade war appears to have persuaded many businesses not to expand or invest in new buildings and equipment. It is also harming Germany’s export-led economy, which shrank between April and June of this year. In addition, Britain plans to leave the European Union on October 31, while Japan and South Korea are having their own trade fight.

The U.S. government threatened new 10% tariffs¹⁰ on $300 billion of mostly consumer goods from China, but then announced a delay until December. That is because President Donald Trump¹¹ and his administration do not want prices to rise before the Christmas holiday shopping season. If the tariffs began immediately, it would force stores to raise their prices.

For now, most other U.S. economic signs do not point to recession. Employers are adding jobs, the unemployment rate remains¹² near a 50-year low.

An inverted yield curve is not enough to say for sure there will be a recession, explained Eric Winograd. He is an economist at investment and search service AllianceBernstein.

“I would want to see other signals that point to that, but we’re not seeing them right now,” he added.

What is a recession?

Generally, a recession is happening when Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrinks for six months or longer. The GDP is the best measure of U.S. economic growth.

But that is not the official definition. The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private organization of economists that officially defines recessions. Those economists say a recession happens when there is a sharp drop in economic activity that lasts for “a few months.” They measure the fall by looking at different kinds of economic information, including GDP, wages and jobs.

The bureau makes its declaration of a recession after studying recent economic reports. So, the economy can actually be in recession for some time before it is officially declared so. The bureau, for example, declared in November 2008 that the Great Recession had begun 11 months earlier.

What do economists watch for?

The most important sign of a weakening economy is the weekly number of people who, for the first time, request unemployment assistance from the government. People can receive the aid if they have lost their jobs through no fault of their own. So, if that number is rising, it means businesses are cutting jobs.

Last week, the number was very low: 209,000.

Economists also look at factory activity since people stop buying cars, refrigerators and other large goods when they are worried about their jobs or the economy.

How severe might a recession be?

It is hard to know the effect of a recession, but many economists think it will not be that bad. That is because many American families are in a better financial position now than before the Great Recession during the late 2000s.

Household debt is lower, and U.S. interest rates are really low.

I’m Susan Shand.

Words in This Story

inverted – v. to change the position, order, or relationship of things so that they are the opposite of what they had been

curve – n. a curved line on a graph that shows how something changes or is affected¹³ by one or more conditions

pessimism – n. a feeling or belief that bad things will happen in the future

consumer – n. a person who buys goods and services

fault – n. responsibility for a problem, mistake, bad situation

1 intensified   

v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Violence intensified during the night. 在夜间暴力活动加剧了。
• The drought has intensified. 旱情加剧了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

4 briefly   

adv.简单地，简短地

参考例句：

• I want to touch briefly on another aspect of the problem.我想简单地谈一下这个问题的另一方面。
• He was kidnapped and briefly detained by a terrorist group.他被一个恐怖组织绑架并短暂拘禁。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 inverted   

adj.反向的，倒转的v.使倒置，使反转( invert的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Only direct speech should go inside inverted commas. 只有直接引语应放在引号内。
• Inverted flight is an acrobatic manoeuvre of the plane. 倒飞是飞机的一种特技动作。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

9 inversion   

n.反向，倒转，倒置

参考例句：

• But sometimes there is an unusual weather condition called a temperature inversion.但有时会有一种被称作“温度逆增”的不平常的天气状态。
• And finally,we made a discussion on the problems in the cooperative inversion.最后，对联合反演中存在的问题进行了讨论。

10 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

11 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。