UN Agency: Dangerous Temperature Increase ‘More Likely Than Not’

The United Nations' weather agency reports that world temperatures are likely to reach dangerous levels within the next five years.

The World Meteorological Organization, or WMO, released a report on the subject Wednesday. It said the 1.5 degrees Celsius¹ rise in temperatures might be temporary. But, the agency noted², such a rise would break the limit sought by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

In 2018, scientists said a temperature increase past 1.5 degrees Celsius would result in death, damage and destruction to the world's ecosystems³.

After the 2015 Paris meeting, most nations agreed to try to limit the burning of coal, oil and gas to prevent a temperature increase. The new WMO report says the use of those fuels, combined with the weather condition called El Nino, will push temperatures to a dangerous level.

Adam Scaife is a weather forecaster in Britain who worked on the report. He said last year, the WMO said there was a 50 percent chance temperatures would increase by 1.5 degrees by the year 2027. This year, the new report says that probability is greater, at 66 percent.

Scientists from 11 different climate centers around the world produced the report.

The increase in temperatures is important. But it may be brief, scientists say.

Report co-writer Leon Hermanson is a climate scientist in Britain. He said the report is "more of a barometer⁴ of how we are getting close," and that the more times the world's temperature goes above the dangerous level, the closer it gets to staying there.

But the climate scientists said they do not believe the world's temperatures will pass the 1.5 degree mark for good until the 2030s.

Petteri Taalas is WMO Secretary-General. The experts, he said, are "sounding the alarm." The report, he added, "does not mean that we will permanently⁵ exceed the 1.5 Celsius level specified⁶ in the Paris Agreement."

Zeke Hausfather is a climate scientist based in California who did not work on the report. He agreed that it is not likely the long-term average would pass 1.5 degrees Celsius until the "early-to-mid 2030s."

The WMO report also said there is a 98 percent chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. The last year that produced an extreme increase was 2016, when temperatures went up by 1.3 degrees Celsius.

The scientists noted that a weather pattern called La Nina over the last three years produced cooler temperatures. The cooler weather made it harder to see the human contribution to the planet's temperatures.

The experts are concerned about the coming El Nino period.

"Where there were floods before, there will be droughts," Hermanson said. "And where there were droughts, there might be floods."

Scientists said the Amazon may be drier than usual, and the Sahel area of Africa may be wetter.

That is one of the pieces of good news from the report.

"It's not all doom-and-gloom and heat waves," Hermanson said.

Another climate scientist who did not work on the report is Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania. He said reports like the one from the WMO are too concerned about surface temperatures. Instead, he said scientists should be worried about the deep waters of the oceans. That is the part of the Earth that is most affected⁷ by human-caused warming.

He also noted that there is still time to lower carbon emissions⁸ and prevent the long-term temperature rise.

"That's what we need to be focused on," Mann said.

Words in This Story

barometer –n. something that is used to indicate or predict something

alarm –n. a device that makes a loud sound as a warning

contribution –n. something that is done to cause something to happen

drought –n. a period of time with dry conditions and very little rain

doom-and-gloom –expression. a way to discuss bad news or feelings

focus –v. to pay careful attention to a topic

1 Celsius   

adj.摄氏温度计的，摄氏的

参考例句：

• The temperature tonight will fall to seven degrees Celsius.今晚气温将下降到七摄氏度。
• The maximum temperature in July may be 36 degrees Celsius.七月份最高温度可能达到36摄氏度。

2 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

3 ecosystems   

n.生态系统( ecosystem的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• There are highly sensitive and delicately balanced ecosystems in the forest. 森林里有高度敏感、灵敏平衡的各种生态系统。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Madagascar's ecosystems range from rainforest to semi-desert. 马达加斯加生态系统类型多样，从雨林到半荒漠等不一而足。 来自辞典例句

4 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

5 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

6 specified   

adj.特定的

参考例句：

• The architect specified oak for the wood trim. 那位建筑师指定用橡木做木饰条。
• It is generated by some specified means. 这是由某些未加说明的方法产生的。

7 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

8 emissions   

排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体）

参考例句：

• Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
• Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。