VOA科学技术2024--AI Can Improve Weather Predictions if Used with Traditional Methods

Weather researchers are using artificial intelligence (AI) systems to improve existing weather prediction methods. But, experts say the AI tools currently face limitations and should be used along with traditional prediction methods to be most effective.

AI systems trained to predict, or forecast, weather events are now being used by many government agencies and organizations worldwide. Such systems aim to produce weather predictions faster and at a lower cost than traditional forecasting methods.

One weather predicting system that has shown promise is the Google-financed GraphCast method. This machine learning-based system trains directly on weather data that has already been collected and examined. Such methods have demonstrated an ability to outperform traditional forecasting systems.

The system works by combining past weather predictions with modern forecasting models to provide the most complete picture of weather and climate.

In Europe, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been using AI prediction tools since January. The organization provides detailed weather forecasts four times per day to nations across Europe.

The ECMWF technology is called the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS). The group describes the system as a "data-driven" forecasting model. It is designed to make many predictions quickly, including for extreme events involving powerful storms and heatwaves.

AI-supported data from the ECMWF correctly predicted intense rains last month across parts of Europe that resulted in widespread flooding. But while the predictions were right, destruction caused by the flooding could not be avoided.

Experts told Reuters this is largely because it is still difficult to gather and fully utilize some collected weather data. In addition, there is a need to strengthen and improve current AI models used to predict weather.

Andrew Charlton-Perez is a professor of meteorology - the scientific study of weather processes - at the University of Reading in Britain. He told Reuters, "In some cases and for some variables, AI models can beat physics-based models, but in other cases vice versa."

Charlton-Perez said one problem is that the effectiveness of an AI model is based on the information it is given. Weather disasters can be harder to predict if there is too little data to enter into AI systems. This can also be true if extreme events happen repeatedly at different times of the year or in different areas.

Charlton-Perez said he thinks the best use of AI-based weather forecasts would be to use them in combination with traditional weather predicting tools. This, he noted, could utilize AI data to produce weather predictions based on large sets of information collected from multiple sources.

Thomas Wostal is with the weather observatory GeoSphere in Austria. He told Reuters his group's models correctly predicted 300 to 400 millimeters of local rains in September. And records show that same amount actually fell in the storms.

But scientists say even in cases where predictions are correct, effective communication is needed to get the information out to communities and local officials so they can effectively prepare.

Shruti Nath is a research assistant in weather prediction and climate at Britain's Oxford University. She told Reuters, "I think what happened with (the recent floods) ... is that it's so rare - a one in 150- to 200-year event - that even if the weather models capture it, there's a reasonable degree of uncertainty."

Nath said AI-supported forecasts need to be clearly communicated to the public in a way that warns of the severity and possible destruction of extreme events. This way, people might see the importance of taking action before severe weather happens in order to prevent costly cleanup and recovery efforts.

Words in This Story

utilize - v. to use something in an effective way

variable - n. a number, amount or situation that can change

vice versa - adv. used to say that what you have just said is also the true in the opposite way

0 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

0 utilize   

vt.使用，利用

参考例句：

• The cook will utilize the leftover ham bone to make soup.厨师要用吃剩的猪腿骨做汤。
• You must utilize all available resources.你必须利用一切可以得到的资源。

0 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

0 observatory   

n.天文台，气象台，瞭望台，观测台

参考例句：

• Guy's house was close to the observatory.盖伊的房子离天文台很近。
• Officials from Greenwich Observatory have the clock checked twice a day.格林威治天文台的职员们每天对大钟检查两次。

0 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

0 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

0 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

0 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

0 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。