Experts Discount Talk of North Korea Instability

 

By Kate Pound Dawson

Recent rumors¹ have prompted speculation² that North Korea's government could be facing dangerous instability. While many experts say the speculation is overblown, they warn that Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo and Washington are unprepared for an unexpected collapse³ of the Pyongyang government.

First there were reports last month that pictures of leader Kim Jong Il had disappeared from North Korean walls. Next were the rumors that some of Pyongyang's top generals had defected to Beijing.

That was followed by speculation that Mr. Kim's hold on power could be wavering.

Balbina Hwang, a Korea expert at the U.S. think tank the Heritage Foundation, is one of many analysts⁵ who say the talk is exaggerated. She thinks Pyongyang may be carefully preparing for some changes in the governmental structure, but there is little likelihood of the regime collapsing⁶.

"It's certainly possible, but I suspect that Kim Jong Il has a much, much stronger hold on what's going on," said Ms. Hwang.

North Korea is one of the most closed countries in the world, making it difficult to determine just what goes on in Pyongyang. Several experts say the reports about the photos may indicate that Kim Jong Il feels he has a firm grip on power, and no longer needs to establish legitimacy⁷ by constantly setting himself alongside his predecessor⁸ and late father, Kim Il Sung.

"Kim Jong Il has said that last year, about his pictures, that he doesn't need pictures on the wall anymore with Kim Il Sung, side by side," noted⁹ Choi Jin-wook, an analyst⁴ at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

The rumors, however, do raise the question of what happens if Kim Jong Il should lose power suddenly. Or if the 62-year-old leader dies unexpectedly. Ms. Hwang says that while intelligence agencies in the United States, South Korea and Japan probably have studied the question, there is little public information about plans to react to sudden change in North Korea.

"I've always argued that people in the private sector¹⁰ should do these sorts of studies because I don't think people have been considering this enough," said Ms. Hwang. "In addition, I don't think that Washington or Seoul or Tokyo, for that matter, have adequately come with up contingency¹¹ plans."

Kim Jong Il took power in 1994, after the death of his father, the country's first leader. The younger Kim was groomed¹² for leadership for years, but it is not clear that his own sons as yet have received the same sort of training, or would be able to establish themselves as legitimate¹³ leaders.

Hideya Kurata is an associate professor at Kyorin University in Japan, and specializes in North Korean security issues. He and other analysts say that the death of the younger Kim, leaving the country without a leader who can claim legitimacy based on ties to Kim Il Sung, could spell the end of the communist government altogether.

"The death of the Kim Jong Il regime means the death of, the collapse of the North Korean political system, and also the end of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea," said Mr. Kurata.

Marcus Noland, a senior fellow at the Institute of International Economics in the United States, has studied the possibilities of a change to North Korea's government.

The worst scenario¹⁴ is one in which a massive flood of North Korean refugees throughout Northeastern Asia causes a humanitarian¹⁵ disaster. Mr. Noland says South Korea, the United States and China would need to work quickly together to bring the situation under control.

"The militaries of South Korea, the United States and China would be drawn¹⁶ into it, if only for the reason that they have the logistical capabilities¹⁷ of responding rapidly to mass population movements," said Mr. Nolan. "To my knowledge, the United States and China do not have serious discussions about these contingencies¹⁸."

That, he says, creates a situation in which the Chinese and U.S. militaries are unprepared to work together, and could come into conflict even as they tried to help the refugees.

Although analysts say it does not appear that Mr. Kim is in any danger of dying or losing power soon, they warn that communist governments have sometimes collapsed¹⁹ unexpectedly, catching²⁰ the rest of the world unprepared.

They point to the 1989 toppling of the Berlin Wall, which led to the reunification of East and West Germany, and to the fall of the Ceausescu dictatorship in Romania.

Given such examples, they say, experts in Washington, Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo should at least begin discussing that possibility in North Korea.

注释：
rumor 谣传
speculation 推测
overblown 过分渲染的
waver 动摇
exaggerated 夸大的
likelihood 可能性
predecessor 前任
contingency 意外
specialize 专门研究
scenario 场景
massive 严重的
logistical 后勤

1 rumors   

n.传闻( rumor的名词复数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷v.传闻( rumor的第三人称单数 )；[古]名誉；咕哝；[古]喧嚷

参考例句：

• Rumors have it that the school was burned down. 有谣言说学校给烧掉了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Rumors of a revolt were afloat. 叛变的谣言四起。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

3 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

4 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 collapsing   

压扁[平]，毁坏，断裂

参考例句：

• Rescuers used props to stop the roof of the tunnel collapsing. 救援人员用支柱防止隧道顶塌陷。
• The rocks were folded by collapsing into the center of the trough. 岩石由于坍陷进入凹槽的中心而发生褶皱。

7 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

8 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

9 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 contingency   

n.意外事件，可能性

参考例句：

• We should be prepared for any contingency.我们应该对任何应急情况有所准备。
• A fire in our warehouse was a contingency that we had not expected.库房的一场大火是我们始料未及的。

12 groomed   

v.照料或梳洗（马等）( groom的过去式和过去分词 )；使做好准备；训练；（给动物）擦洗

参考例句：

• She is always perfectly groomed. 她总是打扮得干净利落。
• Duff is being groomed for the job of manager. 达夫正接受训练，准备当经理。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

14 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

15 humanitarian   

n.人道主义者，博爱者，基督凡人论者

参考例句：

• She has many humanitarian interests and contributes a lot to them.她拥有很多慈善事业，并作了很大的贡献。
• The British government has now suspended humanitarian aid to the area.英国政府现已暂停对这一地区的人道主义援助。

16 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

17 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

18 contingencies   

n.偶然发生的事故，意外事故( contingency的名词复数 )；以备万一

参考例句：

• We must consider all possible contingencies. 我们必须考虑一切可能发生的事。
• We must be prepared for all contingencies. 我们要作好各种准备，以防意外。 来自辞典例句

19 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

20 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。