US Dollar's Decline

 

By Jeffrey Young

Americans crossing borders groan¹ in dismay as they exchange their dollars for less and less in other currencies. Holidays in Europe, for instance, that once seemed reasonably priced have become the opposite. At home, the cost of imported goods has risen. And currency analysts² say the dollar's decline may continue for the foreseeable future because of a number of factors including the policies of the U.S. government.

The "shrinking" dollar isn't just an issue for people in the United States. Roger Leeds with the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies notes some global repercussions³. "The dollar is unquestionably the dominant⁴ currency in the world's economy as measured by various indicators⁵ such as trade oil is invoiced⁶ (priced) in dollars and most other commodities are generally invoiced in dollars. It's also the major international reserve currency, which means that most central banks hold their foreign exchange reserves in dollars."

What determines the value of the dollar and every other currency? Simply put, it's the price they are bought and sold in the global currency market place, reflecting supply and demand. Brian Dolan at GAIN Capital in New York says the value of the dollar or any currency also reflects the underlying⁷ financial circumstances of the country behind it.

"The easiest way is to make an analogy -- currency as the "stock" of a country. So just as a stock's performance (price) is going to depend on the performance of that company so, too, will a currency appreciate or depreciate⁸ depending on the economic prospects⁹, the political prospects, the interest rate prospects of a given economy."

Seen in that light, there are a number of factors that have combined to drive down the dollar. Beginning in 2000, the United States underwent an economic slowdown and a decline in the stock market, which analysts say made foreign investing in U.S. companies less attractive than during the "boom" years of the late 1990's. Another factor is the U.S. government, which in fiscal¹⁰ 2004 incurred¹¹ a record budget deficit¹² of nearly $413 billion as it waged war in Iraq, a global war against terror and other costly¹³ expenditures¹⁴. There is also the $592 billion trade deficit -- more than 5% of the U.S. economy's total value -- run up last fiscal year as Americans bought far more outside the country than they sold abroad.

Economists¹⁶ say the trade or "current account" imbalance can be addressed by a "cheaper" dollar that makes U.S. exports more competitive on the world market. But President Bush and Treasury¹⁷ Secretary John Snow continue to say they support a "strong" dollar. Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute in Washington says that won't solve the trade problem.

"Everyone realizes that we have to worry about the trade deficits¹⁸ now. They've just gone as far as they can go. They're not sustainable. But yet they don't want to give up the "strong dollar" part and they can't have it both ways. If you want to do something about the U.S. trade deficit, you have to accept a lower value for the dollar."

Economist¹⁵ Bivens says the Bush administration's talk of a "strong" dollar is mainly intended to maintain foreigners' confidence in the U.S. economy so they will continue to invest.

Much of the concern over the trade imbalance has centered on China, which ties the value of its currency, the yuan, to the dollar. John Williamson at the Institute for International Economics in Washington says this has enabled Beijing to remain a dominant exporter.  "When the dollar decreases in value, the Chinese currency rides it down. And so, that means that Chinese exports become more competitive in the rest of the world."

China has resisted pleas to break its currency's link to the dollar in order to continue its economic expansion. But the dollars it accumulates are spent in part on buying U.S. government securities that finance the budget deficit. What worries some analysts is that foreign investors¹⁹ such as China may become reluctant to support Washington's debt. If that happens, a crisis could develop that would force the U.S. government to raise interest rates on bonds substantially. Those analysts say Wall Street stocks and other private U.S. investments may be driven down as a result, possibly triggering a recession.

Whatever the dollar's ultimate price, economists and currency traders say in unison²⁰ that any shifts in the value of the dollar and other currencies must be orderly and gradual to prevent market "shocks" that can ripple²¹ worldwide.
注释：
groan 叹息
dismay 沮丧
foreseeable 可预知的
shrinking 收缩的
repercussion 反响
analogy 类推
current account 经常帐户
accumulate 积聚，堆积
substantially 充分地
recession 衰退，不景气

1 groan   

vi./n.呻吟，抱怨；(发出)呻吟般的声音

参考例句：

• The wounded man uttered a groan.那个受伤的人发出呻吟。
• The people groan under the burden of taxes.人民在重税下痛苦呻吟。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

5 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

6 invoiced   

开发票（invoice的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The manufacturer invoiced our company for two typewriters. 制造厂家给我公司开了一张两部打字机的发票。
• Claims for shortage, some electrical appliances invoiced but not delivered. 索赔数量不足，有些电气用品开过发票，但却未到货。 来自商贸英语会话

7 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

8 depreciate   

v.降价，贬值，折旧

参考例句：

• The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
• If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

9 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 incurred   

[医]招致的，遭受的； incur的过去式

参考例句：

• She had incurred the wrath of her father by marrying without his consent 她未经父亲同意就结婚，使父亲震怒。
• We will reimburse any expenses incurred. 我们将付还所有相关费用。

12 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

13 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

14 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

16 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

18 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

19 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

20 unison   

n.步调一致，行动一致

参考例句：

• The governments acted in unison to combat terrorism.这些国家的政府一致行动对付恐怖主义。
• My feelings are in unison with yours.我的感情与你的感情是一致的。

21 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。