Post-Arafat Palestinian Authority -- Who Will Lead?

 

By Jeffrey Young
   
Yasser Arafat has led movements and then an administration -- the Palestinian National Authority -- representing the Palestinian people. His powerful personality has affected¹ relations with countries on both sides of the broader Arab-Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In the era beyond Mr. Arafat, realities and opportunities could provide new directions both for the Palestinian Authority and its leaders, for whom achieving Palestinian statehood is the goal.

Will a change at the PA's helm help revive Israeli Palestinian peace negotiations²? Nathan Brown, with the Washington-based Middle East Institute, says he believes circumstances both afford and compel that opportunity. "What the Israelis have done," he says "is very much personalize the issue with Arafat. Their dispute is with him. So, I think there may be enormous international pressure on them to try and pick up negotiations with the new Palestinian leadership."

Palestinian Authority rules provide for an election not more than sixty days after the office of President becomes vacant. The absence of Yasser Arafat also opens the chairmanship of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the head of the largest Palestinian political party, Fatah.

The Washington bureau chief for the Arabic-language al-Hayat newspaper, Salameh Nematt, predicts that early post-Arafat decisions will reverberate³ for perhaps years to come.  He tells VOA "The transition period is going to be important in terms of determining to some extent the outcome of the elections or, at least, some of the factions⁴ are going to believe that. And, this is why those who are in charge in the interim⁵ period would like to have a wider base of representation possibly including the Islamists and people sympathetic to the Islamic resistance movement."

Palestinian and outside political observers have been putting forth⁶ a number of names of possible PA leadership candidates. Nadia Hijab, with the Palestine Center in Washington, outlines her own "short list," led by Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Queria and his predecessor⁷, Mahmoud Abbas. "The two names that are very obvious are Queria he was basically left in charge together with Mahmoud Abbas, who would be leading the PLO itself." She adds "And then you've got the various security chiefs - Jibril (Rajoub) or (Muhammad) Dahlan."

Many put Ahmed Queria at the top of the possible candidate pack because he already holds a significant and internationally visible PA position. Additionally, as Middle East Institute's Nathan Brown asserts, Mr. Queria's strongest probable challenger may have problems getting support from the Palestinian "street." 

"The problem with Mahmoud Abbas is that although he sounded great to an American and to a European audience, he didn't have any constituency among Palestinians and, in fact, he rubbed people the wrong way," Mr. Brown says. "The other problem with him was when he didn't get the support he wanted from various parties, he simply resigned (the Prime Minister's post.)"

Another possible candidate to head the PA is West Bank Fatah official Marwan Barghouti, currently jailed by Israel on terrorism-related charges. Those who mention him say that he and the PA could use his imprisonment⁸ much the same as South Africa's Nelson Mandela did to symbolize⁹ the struggle of his people. Detractors, however, say that with Barghouti at the helm, Israel could shun¹⁰ him and the PA as it did to Yasser Arafat.

When the election is held, former Israeli Knesset member and peace activist¹¹ Uri Avnery says the Sharon government should take certain steps to ensure the perception that Israel does not interfere¹² with that process. He wants the Israeli government to "Take the Israeli army out of the Palestinian villages and towns. Remove the roadblocks which make the free movement of Palestinians impossible. And, to allow Palestinian prisoners to vote."

Ever since Yasser Arafat fell ill in October, the Israeli government has largely avoided statements that might be perceived as influencing events and opinions among the Palestinians. However, Israeli Foreign Minister Sylvan¹³ Shalom recently commented that he wants to see "a moderate Palestinian leadership that is taking the lead and moving towards a full implementation¹⁴ of the "Roadmap" (to Middle East peace)." But, as before, Israel also insists that any successor to Yasser Arafat dismantle¹⁵ terrorist groups and put an end to incitement¹⁶ and violence in the West Bank and Gaza. That, according to Uri Avnery, may be a huge -perhaps impossible - challenge.

For focus, I'm Jeffrey Young.

注释：
Palestine National Authority 巴勒斯坦领土的临时政府，由阿拉法特领导。
helm 舵
vacant 空缺的
Fatah（巴勒斯坦的）法塔赫党
reverberate 不断产生后效的
interim 临时的，过渡的
predecessor 前任
constituency 支持者
imprisonment 关押
incitement 刺激

1 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

2 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

3 reverberate   

v.使回响，使反响

参考例句：

• The decision will reverberate and will jar the country.这项决定将引起反响并震撼这个国家。
• Echoes of cries of pain reverberate in my hear.痛苦呼喊的一遍遍的在我的心中回响。

4 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

5 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

6 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

7 predecessor   

n.前辈，前任

参考例句：

• It will share the fate of its predecessor.它将遭受与前者同样的命运。
• The new ambassador is more mature than his predecessor.新大使比他的前任更成熟一些。

8 imprisonment   

n.关押，监禁，坐牢

参考例句：

• His sentence was commuted from death to life imprisonment.他的判决由死刑减为无期徒刑。
• He was sentenced to one year's imprisonment for committing bigamy.他因为犯重婚罪被判入狱一年。

9 symbolize   

vt.作为...的象征，用符号代表

参考例句：

• Easter eggs symbolize the renewal of life.复活蛋象征新生。
• Dolphins symbolize the breath of life.海豚象征着生命的气息。

10 shun   

vt.避开，回避，避免

参考例句：

• Materialists face truth,whereas idealists shun it.唯物主义者面向真理，唯心主义者则逃避真理。
• This extremist organization has shunned conventional politics.这个极端主义组织有意避开了传统政治。

11 activist   

n.活动分子，积极分子

参考例句：

• He's been a trade union activist for many years.多年来他一直是工会的积极分子。
• He is a social activist in our factory.他是我厂的社会活动积极分子。

12 interfere   

v.(in)干涉，干预；(with)妨碍，打扰

参考例句：

• If we interfere, it may do more harm than good.如果我们干预的话，可能弊多利少。
• When others interfere in the affair,it always makes troubles. 别人一卷入这一事件，棘手的事情就来了。

13 sylvan   

adj.森林的

参考例句：

• Venerable oaks forms a sylvan archway.古老的栎树形成一条林荫拱道。
• They lived in a sylvan retreat.他们住在一个林中休养地。

14 implementation   

n.实施，贯彻

参考例句：

• Implementation of the program is now well underway.这一项目的实施现在行情看好。

15 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

16 incitement   

激励； 刺激； 煽动； 激励物

参考例句：

• incitement to racial hatred 种族仇恨的挑起
• Interest is an incitement to study. 兴趣刺激学习。