2006年VOA标准英语-Experts: North Korea Situation Can Worsen

By Stephanie Ho
Washington
11 October 2006

Asia experts in the United States say there are steps North Korea could take to further inflame¹ the international community's anger, following an explosion in North Korea Monday that Pyongyang claimed as a nuclear test.

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Jon Wolfsthal  
  
Center for Strategic and International Studies fellow Jon Wolfsthal is a former U.S. Department of Energy official who served as an on-site monitor at North Korea's nuclear complex at Yongbyon. He says he expects the U.S. intelligence community will reach consensus² as to whether the North Korean explosion was indeed nuclear within a week to 10 days.

"With decent luck, we'll be able to determine the composition of the weapon, generally, what it was designed to achieve, in terms of did they go anywhere near the yield they wanted to," said Jon Wolfsthal. "But we won't be able to tell anything about the overall make-up, the size of it, whether it was intended for a warhead, a simple demonstration³. I think that's maybe beyond our capacity."

He said Monday's test is not the end of North Korea's nuclear development. Rather, he said he expects Pyongyang to conduct another nuclear test and to test-fire more missiles. He also expects North Korea to try to continue to increase its nuclear arsenal⁴, which is estimated to have at least six bombs.

"They know if they want to stand up and stand toe-to-toe with the United States, which has roughly 6,000 nuclear weapons, they're going to need more than a dozen," he said. "And so, they're likely to expand their nuclear production capabilities⁵ in the future. Maybe they want to negotiate over that in the future, and that's another bargaining chip they can work on, but I think it's likely they'll move in that direction."

Wolfsthal added that he expects the North Koreans to temporarily shut down the nuclear reactor⁶ at Yongbyon, which was restarted in 2003, shortly after Pyongyang expelled international inspectors⁷ from the site. He estimates there is now enough plutonium in Yongbyon to make at least three bombs.

Michael Green    
  
Meanwhile, another CSIS expert, Michael Green, who just recently left President Bush's National Security Council, said he expects Pyongyang to suggest that it might transfer nuclear materials to others, such as terrorists or rogue⁸ states.

"This is something that the North Koreans know would be suicide, but they know it gets our attention and I think they will vaguely⁹ hint at this threat by promising¹⁰, quote, unquote, arms control negotiations¹¹, or talks on how to peacefully co-exist with the safe control of this nuclear deterrent¹², and so on and so forth," said Michael Green. "I think they will try in a variety of ways to keep frightening, stimulating¹³, the neighborhood, including the U.S., to get concessions¹⁴."

But former CNN Asia correspondent Mike Chinoy points out that Pyongyang has taken great pains to, in his words, state "explicitly¹⁵ that they would not export nuclear material." Chinoy, who is now a fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy, said official North Korean language has tried to portray¹⁶ the country as what he described as a "responsible new member of the nuclear club."

"They've talked about the tests taking place under strict scientific supervision¹⁷, promising there would be no leak of radiation, talking about how this is designed to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula," said Mike Chinoy. "Now, one cannot accept ever at face value anything North Korea says. But they have clearly made a conscious decision to counter the negative impact that this has had, by couching what they're doing in those kinds of terms."

Chinoy added that it is hard to say what the North Koreans will do next. But he and other Korea experts say they are closely watching the U.N. resolution that imposes sanctions on North Korea, which is expected to be passed this week.

1 inflame   

v.使燃烧；使极度激动；使发炎

参考例句：

• Our lack of response seemed to inflame the colonel.由于我们没有反应,好象惹恼了那个上校。
• Chemical agents manufactured by our immune system inflame our cells and tissues,causing our nose to run and our throat to swell.我们的免疫系统产生的化学物质导致我们的细胞和组织发炎，导致我们流鼻水和我们的喉咙膨胀。

2 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

3 demonstration   

n.表明，示范，论证，示威

参考例句：

• His new book is a demonstration of his patriotism.他写的新书是他的爱国精神的证明。
• He gave a demonstration of the new technique then and there.他当场表演了这种新的操作方法。

4 arsenal   

n.兵工厂，军械库

参考例句：

• Even the workers at the arsenal have got a secret organization.兵工厂工人暗中也有组织。
• We must be the great arsenal of democracy.我们必须成为民主的大军火库。

5 capabilities   

n.能力( capability的名词复数 )；可能；容量；[复数]潜在能力

参考例句：

• He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大，自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
• Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为，标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

6 reactor   

n.反应器；反应堆

参考例句：

• The atomic reactor generates enormous amounts of thermal energy.原子反应堆发出大量的热能。
• Inside the reactor the large molecules are cracked into smaller molecules.在反应堆里，大分子裂变为小分子。

7 inspectors   

n.检查员( inspector的名词复数 )；（英国公共汽车或火车上的）查票员；（警察）巡官；检阅官

参考例句：

• They got into the school in the guise of inspectors. 他们假装成视察员进了学校。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Inspectors checked that there was adequate ventilation. 检查员已检查过，通风良好。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 rogue   

n.流氓；v.游手好闲

参考例句：

• The little rogue had his grandpa's glasses on.这淘气鬼带上了他祖父的眼镜。
• They defined him as a rogue.他们确定他为骗子。

9 vaguely   

adv.含糊地，暖昧地

参考例句：

• He had talked vaguely of going to work abroad.他含糊其词地说了到国外工作的事。
• He looked vaguely before him with unseeing eyes.他迷迷糊糊的望着前面，对一切都视而不见。

10 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

11 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

12 deterrent   

n.阻碍物，制止物；adj.威慑的，遏制的

参考例句：

• Large fines act as a deterrent to motorists.高额罚款是对开车的人的制约。
• I put a net over my strawberries as a deterrent to the birds.我在草莓上罩了网，免得鸟歇上去。

13 stimulating   

adj.有启发性的，能激发人思考的

参考例句：

• shower gel containing plant extracts that have a stimulating effect on the skin 含有对皮肤有益的植物精华的沐浴凝胶
• This is a drug for stimulating nerves. 这是一种兴奋剂。

14 concessions   

n.（尤指由政府或雇主给予的）特许权( concession的名词复数 )；承认；减价；（在某地的）特许经营权

参考例句：

• The firm will be forced to make concessions if it wants to avoid a strike. 要想避免罢工，公司将不得不作出一些让步。
• The concessions did little to placate the students. 让步根本未能平息学生的愤怒。

15 explicitly   

ad.明确地，显然地

参考例句：

• The plan does not explicitly endorse the private ownership of land. 该计划没有明确地支持土地私有制。
• SARA amended section 113 to provide explicitly for a right to contribution. 《最高基金修正与再授权法案》修正了第123条，清楚地规定了分配权。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

16 portray   

v.描写，描述；画(人物、景象等)

参考例句：

• It is difficult to portray feelings in words.感情很难用言语来描写。
• Can you portray the best and worst aspects of this job?您能描述一下这份工作最好与最坏的方面吗？

17 supervision   

n.监督，管理

参考例句：

• The work was done under my supervision.这项工作是在我的监督之下完成的。
• The old man's will was executed under the personal supervision of the lawyer.老人的遗嘱是在律师的亲自监督下执行的。