2006年VOA标准英语-1918 Spanish Flu Holds Clues to Future Pan

By Jim Bertel
Washington, DC
17 February 2006
 
watch Bird Flu report

As the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu continues to spread from Asia to the Middle East, Africa and Europe, there have been many predictions of viral mutation¹, human-to-human transmission, and a pandemic. VOA's Jim Bertel reports that those predictions are based on more than scientific hypothesis.

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Patients at a military hospital during 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic   
  

As the First World War was coming to an end in 1918, an even deadlier calamity² was spreading around the world. A flu virus, unlike any before it, was infecting groups of people across the globe. By the time the so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic was over, a fifth of the world's population had been infected, and perhaps 40 million people were dead. 

Only recently have researchers unraveled the genetic³ code of that virus, determining what experts had long feared: the 1918 pandemic was caused by bird flu

"The 1918 genetic picture suggests to us that this was a different formation, that this was an entirely⁴ bird-like virus that ultimately adapted in all of its genes⁵ to humans,“ says Dr. Jeffery Taubenberger of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology.

Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger   
  
He led the team that decoded⁶ the 1918 virus. His team discovered a number of mutations that were key in adapting the virus from birds to humans, traits shared by the current H5N1 strain of bird flu.

"The H5 viruses, especially some of the more recent ones, share some of those mutations, suggesting that they might be acquiring some changes that would make them more easily adapted to humans. So that's a very worrisome situation for us," said the doctor.

"When you look at 1918, you also realize most of the victims were males in their 20s to 40s” according to Dr. Joxel Garcia, Deputy Director of the Pan American Health Organization. “And there is speculation⁷ that was probably because they were soldiers or people living in close quarters."

 
Dr. Joxel Garcia 
  
Dr. Garcia warns that the movement of people, whether soldiers or tourists, would be just one factor in the spread of a future bird flu pandemic.

"Even if we were static, just the migration⁸ of the birds would increase the risk of this flu arriving everywhere," he adds.

For this reason, health experts believe if the current bird flu virus becomes transmissible person-to-person, containment⁹ through quarantine is unlikely to work.

Of further concern, Dr. Garcia says a vaccine¹⁰ cannot be developed until the pandemic pathogen reaches this stage. At that point, it could take months to create and manufacture an effective vaccine, although scientists are working hard to speed up the process. If they cannot, governments will face a tough issue:

"But the second part, which is going to be the most difficult question to answer is the ethical¹¹ part. What countries are going to have priorities; within the country, who is going to be a priority?" posed Dr. Garcia.

Whether or not the H5N1 bird flu virus will ever mutate into a pandemic is still uncertain. But most health officials agree that no matter how good modern science is, a future pandemic is inevitable¹².

1 mutation   

n.变化，变异，转变

参考例句：

• People who have this mutation need less sleep than others.有这种突变的人需要的睡眠比其他人少。
• So far the discussion has centered entirely around mutation in the strict sense.到目前为止，严格来讲，讨论完全集中于围绕突变问题上。

2 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

3 genetic   

adj.遗传的，遗传学的

参考例句：

• It's very difficult to treat genetic diseases.遗传性疾病治疗起来很困难。
• Each daughter cell can receive a full complement of the genetic information.每个子细胞可以收到遗传信息的一个完全补偿物。

4 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

5 genes   

n.基因( gene的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• You have good genes from your parents, so you should live a long time. 你从父母那儿获得优良的基因，所以能够活得很长。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Differences will help to reveal the functions of the genes. 它们间的差异将会帮助我们揭开基因多种功能。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 生物技术的世纪

6 decoded   

v.译（码），解（码）( decode的过去式和过去分词 )；分析及译解电子信号

参考例句：

• The control unit decoded the 18 bits. 控制器对这18位字进行了译码。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Scientists have decoded the dog genome. 科学家已经译解了狗的基因组。 来自辞典例句

7 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

8 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

9 containment   

n.阻止，遏制；容量

参考例句：

• Your list might include such things as cost containment,quality,or customer satisfaction.你的清单上应列有诸如成本控制、产品质量、客户满意程度等内容。
• Insularity and self-containment,it is argued,go hand in hand.他们争论说，心胸狭窄和自我封闭是并存的。

10 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

11 ethical   

adj.伦理的，道德的，合乎道德的

参考例句：

• It is necessary to get the youth to have a high ethical concept.必须使青年具有高度的道德观念。
• It was a debate which aroused fervent ethical arguments.那是一场引发强烈的伦理道德争论的辩论。

12 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。