2006年VOA标准英语-Good Chance Bird Flu Will Mutate

By Cathryn Curtis
Washington, DC
16 March 2006
 
watch Bird Flu Mutations report
 

Swabing inside of mouth of bird  
  
As the threat of bird flu spreads around the world, the big question on the minds of scientists around the world is if -- and when --- the virus might mutate to allow it to be transmitted from birds to humans. VOA's Cathryn Curtis reports on what some scientists in the U.S. are predicting.

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Bird flu has now been confirmed in more than 40 countries around the world, and health officials are scrambling¹ to prevent the virus from spreading.

Nearly 200 people have been diagnosed with bird flu and more than half have died from it so far. They caught the virus from exposure to chickens and ducks and birds. The bird flu virus can't spread among humans... yet.

Dr. Robert Webster  
  
Dr. Robert Webster collects and studies samples of the virus in his Memphis, Tennessee lab. He says chances are good that the virus will mutate and jump from birds to humans. "[There are] about even odds² at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human."

If that happened, a deadly pandemic could quickly spread around the world.

Dr. Webster says we need to be prepared. "We can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. I think we have to face that possibility. I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."

Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger   
  
Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger, of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, says there is a frightening historic precedent³ from 1918. "The risk of the current bird flu is that this virus might be actually going down the same path as the 1918 virus."

Dr. Taubenberger led a team of researchers who decoded⁴ that virus. They determined⁵ it mutated from a bird flu, but they're not sure where or when that happened. He says today's bird flu virus, called H5N1, shows some similarities to the 1918 virus. He adds, "The H5 viruses, especially some of the more recent ones, share some of those mutations, suggesting that they might be acquiring some changes that would make them more easily adapted to humans. So that's a very worrisome situation for us."

No one knows how many mutations it would take for the virus to jump to humans, when it would happen, or the biggest question of all -- if it will happen.

Dr. Anne Moscona  
  
Nonetheless, Dr. Anne Moscona spends her days searching for new types of anti-virals that would prevent and slow the spread of a human-transmitted bird flu and says there is a chance that the virus may not be able to jump to humans. 

"It may not do it. There may just be too many changes. The virus may not be able to be a human virus,” but adds, “I don't think that once we have human to human transmission, it's going to be possible to contain it."

So the scientists work around the clock, hoping the virus doesn't mutate, but preparing for the worst.

1 scrambling   

v.快速爬行( scramble的现在分词 )；攀登；争夺；（军事飞机）紧急起飞

参考例句：

• Scrambling up her hair, she darted out of the house. 她匆忙扎起头发，冲出房去。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• She is scrambling eggs. 她正在炒蛋。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

3 precedent   

n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的

参考例句：

• Is there a precedent for what you want me to do?你要我做的事有前例可援吗？
• This is a wonderful achievement without precedent in Chinese history.这是中国历史上亘古未有的奇绩。

4 decoded   

v.译（码），解（码）( decode的过去式和过去分词 )；分析及译解电子信号

参考例句：

• The control unit decoded the 18 bits. 控制器对这18位字进行了译码。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Scientists have decoded the dog genome. 科学家已经译解了狗的基因组。 来自辞典例句

5 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。