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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Bill Rodgers
Washington. D.C.
29 March 2006
watch Civil War report
A grieving widow touches her husband's coffin1 as it is carried to a cemetery
The continuing sectarian violence in Iraq has raised fears the country may descend2 into civil war -- like those that took place in the former Yugoslavia or Somalia. While military historians say there is no specific blueprint3 for such conflicts, there are some indicators4 when a nation is in danger of sliding into civil war.
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In El Salvador …. in the former Yugoslavia …. in Somalia ….. there were savage5 civil wars in the 1980s and 90s. Each of these conflicts shared some of the attributes of civil wars: ideological6 differences, ethnic7 and religious divisions, the struggle for economic control. Yet there is no one blueprint for what causes or constitutes civil war.
Mark Clodfelter
Mark Clodfelter, who teaches military history at the National War College, defines it this way: "It is going to be a military conflict internal to a particular country. So you are going to have organized factions8 fighting among themselves. One of those factions is going to be the government and the military forces associated with it. You are going to have organized resistance taking place from both sides and both sides will have publicly stated political objectives."
The American civil war of the 1860s fits that classic definition, a bloody9 conflict between the armies of the North and South that left more than 600,000 combatants dead. More modern conflicts are harder to define.
"There is no specific blueprint, there is no one size fits all here,” says Mr. Clodfelter. “You can have instances, say the case in Somalia in 1991 and thereafter, where there is no organized government there and yet the rest of the world would say that what you had in that situation was civil war."
Louay Bahry
The continuing sectarian violence in Iraq has revived the question of what factors lead a country into civil war. The February bombing of a holy Shi'ite mosque10 unleashed11 a wave of retaliatory12 killings13 between Iraqi Sunnis and Shias. This violence, which has come in the midst of an insurgency14 fighting the government and U.S. troops, has raised fears Iraq may sink into civil war.
But President Bush downplayed those fears at a recent news conference. "We all recognize that there is violence, that there is sectarian violence. But the way I look at the situation is that the Iraqis took a look and decided15 not to go to civil war. The army did not bust16 up into sectarian divisions. The army stayed united," said Mr. Bush.
Yet kidnappings and executions continue, with bodies turning up at morgues on almost a daily basis. Shi'ite militias17 are blamed for many of the killings of Sunnis.
At the National War College, Mark Clodfelter says the rise of militias in a country can sometimes be a sign of impending18 civil war.
"Certainly it could show that there is a trigger mechanism19 there for a conflict that is going to develop into full-scale civil war. I would say that could be a warning sign in particular for the government in power and they would want to react to that."
But quelling20 the violence has been hampered21 as negotiations22 to form a national unity23 government between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds have so far been deadlocked24, a factor creating further instability.
Iraqi political scientist Louay Bahry of the Middle East Institute in Washington warns the lack of a unity government could trigger civil war. "The identity of Iraq among Iraqis is very weak now. When the institutions of the state become so weak, then people lose their own national identities and they fall back on their sectarian, and tribal25, and family and clan26 linkages27."
Iraq may yet avoid the fate of Somalia or the former Yugoslavia, but some see the specter of civil war looming28.
1 coffin | |
n.棺材,灵柩 | |
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2 descend | |
vt./vi.传下来,下来,下降 | |
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3 blueprint | |
n.蓝图,设计图,计划;vt.制成蓝图,计划 | |
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4 indicators | |
(仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的)指针( indicator的名词复数 ); 指示物; (车辆上的)转弯指示灯; 指示信号 | |
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5 savage | |
adj.野蛮的;凶恶的,残暴的;n.未开化的人 | |
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6 ideological | |
a.意识形态的 | |
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7 ethnic | |
adj.人种的,种族的,异教徒的 | |
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8 factions | |
组织中的小派别,派系( faction的名词复数 ) | |
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9 bloody | |
adj.非常的的;流血的;残忍的;adv.很;vt.血染 | |
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10 mosque | |
n.清真寺 | |
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11 unleashed | |
v.把(感情、力量等)释放出来,发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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12 retaliatory | |
adj.报复的 | |
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13 killings | |
谋杀( killing的名词复数 ); 突然发大财,暴发 | |
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14 insurgency | |
n.起义;暴动;叛变 | |
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15 decided | |
adj.决定了的,坚决的;明显的,明确的 | |
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16 bust | |
vt.打破;vi.爆裂;n.半身像;胸部 | |
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17 militias | |
n.民兵组织,民兵( militia的名词复数 ) | |
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18 impending | |
a.imminent, about to come or happen | |
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19 mechanism | |
n.机械装置;机构,结构 | |
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20 quelling | |
v.(用武力)制止,结束,镇压( quell的现在分词 ) | |
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21 hampered | |
妨碍,束缚,限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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22 negotiations | |
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过 | |
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23 unity | |
n.团结,联合,统一;和睦,协调 | |
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24 deadlocked | |
陷入僵局的;僵持不下的 | |
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25 tribal | |
adj.部族的,种族的 | |
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26 clan | |
n.氏族,部落,宗族,家族,宗派 | |
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27 linkages | |
n.连接( linkage的名词复数 );结合;联系;联动装置 | |
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28 looming | |
n.上现蜃景(光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼)v.隐约出现,阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 );隐约出现,阴森地逼近 | |
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