2006年VOA标准英语- Asian Lender Says Region Must Prepare for

By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
13 April 2006

The Asian Development Bank warns Asian governments to prepare for a possible collapse¹ of the U.S. dollar as the trade gap widens between Asia and its Western trading partners.

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The growing U.S. trade deficit² has been an issue of global concern for the past few years, but as Asia's foreign exchange reserves rise to about $2 trillion, economists⁴ increasingly urge immediate⁵ action to correct the imbalance before a crisis occurs.

In a recent report, the Asian Development Bank warned of the danger of a rapid fall in the dollar, should investors⁶ lose confidence in the U.S. economy.

Ifzal Ali, the ADB's chief economist³, says a fast depreciation⁷ of the dollar would lead to a "double whammy" for Asia, which counts the U.S. as a major trading partner.

He says a weak dollar makes Asian exports more expensive in America. At the same time, a likely jump in U.S. interest rates as a result of the depreciation would suppress consumption and lower demand for Asian exports. And, since many Asian countries hold huge amounts U.S. assets, the value of their holdings would fall as the dollar weakened.

  
  
Ali adds there is no easy way out of this dilemma⁸, but Asia could start by spending its excess cash. Increased spending by consumers, businesses and governments would cut Asian exports and increase imports. "Asia would have to ride this out," he said. "Domestic demand in terms of both consumption and investment in Asia would have to rise to overcome this kind of situation. But to move to a higher consumption path is going to take a long time because these are deep structural⁹ issues."

One problem in encouraging spending is that many Asian countries have limited social safety nets and weak consumer banking¹⁰ services. That means people save huge amounts for their retirements¹¹, to buy homes or to educate their children. Many experts say governments must give consumers more confidence in their futures¹², and more access to affordable¹³ credit, before they will spend more.

The ADB notes Southeast Asian governments are trying to spend more but it has yet to make a difference on their current account surpluses. The regional non-profit lender has been promoting the development of Asia's capital markets, where excess liquidity¹⁴ can be invested in bonds and other securities.

China's foreign currency reserves ballooned to $853 billion in February, surpassing Japan to be the biggest holder¹⁵ of foreign currencies in Asia. The U.S. trade deficit expanded more than five percent in January to $68.5 billion from a month earlier.

The United States and other Western countries have been pressuring Asian nations, particularly China, to liberalize their foreign exchange systems to curb¹⁶ trade imbalances. They argue that managed currencies in some countries make Asian exports unfairly cheap. The U.S. Senate is considering a measure to impose high tariffs¹⁷ on China's exports if it does not liberalize the yuan.

China's central bank chief recently said it would take two to three years before the country's trade account would improve, but it may not mean that its huge trade surplus with the U.S. would be corrected by then.

Economist Clyde Prestowitz, a former U.S. commerce advisor¹⁸, says delay in taking action would only be costly¹⁹ for the global economy. "The longer it goes, the bigger the adjustment is going to be and the more painful the adjustment is going to be at the end of the line, so in a way you should pray for a crisis now," he said.

Ali at the ADB says global cooperation is needed to avert²⁰ a possible crisis. "It is in nobody's interest to have a disorderly depreciation of the dollar," he notes. "So I think globally there would enough actions taken that this would not happen."

Some economists have raised the possibility of coordinated²¹ policy action to correct the imbalance similar to the 1985 Plaza²² Accord that led to the appreciation²³ of the Japanese yen²⁴ and helped revive the U.S. economy and trim its trade deficit. But so far, no such initiative has been set into motion.

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

8 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

9 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

10 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

11 retirements   

退休( retirement的名词复数 )； 退职； 退役； 退休的实例

参考例句：

• We've had two retirements in our office this year. 今年我们办公室已有二人退休。
• Those may take the form of sackings redundancies, temporary layoffs or retirements. 这些形式有开除，作为编余人员，暂时解雇或退休。

12 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

13 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

14 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

15 holder   

n.持有者，占有者；(台，架等)支持物

参考例句：

• The holder of the office of chairman is reponsible for arranging meetings.担任主席职位的人负责安排会议。
• That runner is the holder of the world record for the hundred-yard dash.那位运动员是一百码赛跑世界纪录的保持者。

16 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

17 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

18 advisor   

n.顾问，指导老师，劝告者

参考例句：

• They employed me as an advisor.他们聘请我当顾问。
• The professor is engaged as a technical advisor.这位教授被聘请为技术顾问。

19 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

20 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

21 coordinated   

adj.协调的

参考例句：

• The sound has to be coordinated with the picture. 声音必须和画面协调一致。
• The numerous existing statutes are complicated and poorly coordinated. 目前繁多的法令既十分复杂又缺乏快调。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

22 plaza   

n.广场，市场

参考例句：

• They designated the new shopping centre York Plaza.他们给这个新购物中心定名为约克购物中心。
• The plaza is teeming with undercover policemen.这个广场上布满了便衣警察。

23 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

24 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。