2006年VOA标准英语-Economists: Political Solution Only Way to Save

By Tendai Maphosa
Zimbabwe
03 August 2006

Days after the Zimbabwe central bank chief made his latest monetary¹ policy statement, economists³ say it falls short of solving the country's economic problems.  They say Zimbabwe needs international help to revive its economy.  Most say that can only happen once Zimbabwe's political crisis is resolved.

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The new Zimbabwean bank notes introduced by the Reserve bank governor in Harare 
  
Monday, Central Bank Governor Gideon Gono announced an array of measures aimed at reviving the economy.  These include devaluation of the Zimbabwe dollar, a reduction of lending rates and incentives⁴ for the manufacturing and mining sectors⁵ to stimulate⁶ exports.

He also announced the removal of three zeros from the Zimbabwean currency in a bid to make it easier for consumers to carry out transactions in a hyperinflationary environment.  But University of Zimbabwe economist² Tony Hawkins thinks it is the latest in a series of plans to rescue the economy that is also doomed⁷ to fail.

"This situation can only be solved by some kind of political resolution in respect of Zimbabwe resuming access to international assistance; the World Bank, the IMF, donors⁸ like the European Union, Britain, the United states and so on," he said.  "All these other measures are, so to speak, [are equivalent to] reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic⁹.  Everybody knows eventually there will be a day of final reckoning."

Zimbabwe's economy is facing serious challenges; the highest inflation rate in the world at close to 1,200 percent, high domestic debt, low manufacturing production and poor agricultural performance.  These factors have led to more than 80 percent unemployment, fuel shortages, frequent power outages and foreign currency shortages. 

Economist James Jowa also says Zimbabwe needs balance of payment support, but dismissed its Look East policy meant to strengthen trade ties with countries such as China

"The Chinese, they are just like anybody else, they are there to make money for themselves.  They think of themselves first," he said.  "Some of the deals that have been entered with the Chinese center on them extracting raw materials from us.  What we need to do is to ensure that the politics is right, inside the country, the various groups, the various political formations, they need to come together to chart a way forward before we can expect the international community to intervene."

Economists blame several factors for the Zimbabwe's economic woes¹⁰, beginning when the government made hefty, unbudgeted payments in 1997 to veterans of the war of liberation.  Jowa says the country's military intervention¹¹ in the Democratic Republic of the Congo also impacted negatively on the balance of payments.

A chaotic¹² land-reform program launched in 2000 made a bad situation worse.  Up to then, agriculture was the country's leading foreign currency earner. 

The exercise was meant to dispossess white commercial farmers of land for the resettlement of landless blacks.  But the new black farmers have failed to maintain production due to a lack of money for materials, lack of farming knowledge, and successive droughts. 

The government blames the economic meltdown on, what it calls, sanctions put in place by western countries meant to punish Zimbabwe for taking away land from whites.

Meanwhile, Hawkins and Jowa agree that striking off three zeros on the currency is going to make life easier for consumers who had to carry piles of cash for simple transactions.  The conversion¹³ to the new currency is set to be complete on August 21, but the changeover has been anything but smooth. 

Banks still do not have all 13 new denominations¹⁴, and while some banks accept checks with old denominations others are rejecting them. 

This Harare businessman has to track down customers who paid him by check.

"I had some checks that were written in the old system, but they were returned to me saying they need them to be written in the new system, that is crossing off the zeros," he explained.  "Yesterday, actually from the bank I had confirmed, and they said you can write using the old system, but today they returned the checks to me."

The government is upbeat about a long-term positive impact of its monetary policy statement, but economist Jowa does not share the authorities' optimism.

"I am not too sure where their optimism comes from," he noted¹⁵.  "I think these are people who have been cheering each and every policy statement the government has brought about.  We have seen a number of development programs, I cannot name them there are too many, but on the ground things are not improving."

There is consensus¹⁶ that inflation is what Central Bank Governor Gono called the number-one enemy of Zimbabwe.  But measures such as cutting interest rates are expected to push inflation upwards¹⁷ as more money finds its way onto the market. 

Devaluation will, analysts¹⁸ add, make imports more expensive.  They indicate the only solution is to get the economic sectors producing at full capacity again and for this to happen they say Zimbabwe has to come out of the political doghouse.

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

5 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

7 doomed   

命定的

参考例句：

• The court doomed the accused to a long term of imprisonment. 法庭判处被告长期监禁。
• A country ruled by an iron hand is doomed to suffer. 被铁腕人物统治的国家定会遭受不幸的。

8 donors   

n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 )；献血者；捐血者；器官捐献者

参考例句：

• Please email us to be removed from our active list of blood donors. 假如你想把自己的名字从献血联系人名单中删去，请给我们发电子邮件。
• About half this amount comes from individual donors and bequests. 这笔钱大约有一半来自个人捐赠及遗赠。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 titanic   

adj.巨人的，庞大的，强大的

参考例句：

• We have been making titanic effort to achieve our purpose.我们一直在作极大的努力，以达到我们的目的。
• The island was created by titanic powers and they are still at work today.台湾岛是由一个至今仍然在运作的巨大力量塑造出来的。

10 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

11 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

12 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

13 conversion   

n.转化，转换，转变

参考例句：

• He underwent quite a conversion.他彻底变了。
• Waste conversion is a part of the production process.废物处理是生产过程的一个组成部分。

14 denominations   

n.宗派( denomination的名词复数 )；教派；面额；名称

参考例句：

• Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
• The service was attended by Christians of all denominations. 这次礼拜仪式各教派的基督徒都参加了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

16 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

17 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

18 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。