VOA常速英语2007-Higher Oil Prices Blamed on Peaking Production

By Greg Flakus
Houston
31 October 2007
 

As oil prices reach record levels, industry observers ponder a future of increased demand and a possible peak in production. A European group announced last week that world production peaked last year and will decrease steadily¹ in the years ahead, even as demand continues to grow. VOA's Greg Flakus went to a peak oil conference in Houston recently and filed this report.

On hand for the Association of Peak Oil Studies conference were industry representatives, engineers, analysts³ and investors⁴ all expressing concern about what the world will do when production reaches its peak.

Among the better known speakers was legendary⁵ oil developer and billionaire T. Boone Pickens, who expressed his belief that world oil production is unlikely to keep up with rising demand, meaning much higher prices could be ahead.

"The $90 a barrel does not surprise me. It would not surprise me if it went to $100 a barrel. I am not predicting that, but I do think it will go to 100 before it goes back down to 80," he said.

Pickens blamed some of the problem on inefficient⁶ production from state-owned oil companies that have not allowed more technically⁷ advanced private companies, like Dallas-based Exxon Mobil, to take a more active role in their fields.

"Could you get more than 85 million barrels a day out of the world? You could if they all turned it over to Exxon, but they are not going to do that, we know. But 75 percent of all the oil in the world is controlled by state-owned oil companies," he said.

Many industry analysts and oil experts dispute the peak-oil theory, noting that new technology, bolstered⁸ by the increased price of oil, has made it possible to extract oil from areas that were once overlooked. Many also dispute the idea suggested by some peak oil theorists that production will go into a steep decline after reaching the peak.

Many energy analysts also blame the recent run up in oil prices on speculation⁹ and fear of delivery disruptions in the Middle East, rather than a peak in production.

But the people concerned about peak oil are not alarmists, says the director of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in the United States, Jim Baldauf. "We do not claim that we are running out of oil. We claim that we are running out of cheap oil, and I think if you just look in the financial pages today you will see that this is not some projection," he said.

Baldauf is executive vice¹¹ president of Austin, Texas-based APEX¹² Resources, a company that has exploited wells that were once considered depleted¹³. He says exploiting them is is difficult. "All I know is that we have to drill deeper and smarter and at twice the cost to get about a third of the production that we used to get," he said.

He says many people in the energy industry see a peak in worldwide production coming soon and support various efforts to find a solution. "There is no silver bullet, single techno fix to solve this problem. More likely it is going to be an integrated mosaic¹⁴ of pieces that make up a jig-saw puzzle of solutions," he said.

One solution might be the use of hybrid-electric vehicles like one put on display at the conference by Jamie Mitchell of the Austin Energy utility company. "We need to find solutions to the problem and how cities like Austin and Houston will continue to thrive when we do not have cheap, abundant oil resources," Mitchell said.

Most conference participants expressed support for immediate¹⁵ conservation programs as well as development of alternative fuels, from liquefied natural gas to biofuels such as ethanol, as well as such ideas as solar and wind energy to charge electric car batteries.

Many at the conference also supported development of new, safer nuclear plants. They do not produce greenhouse gases and could provide support for an electric-vehicle system. But they recognize that will be an uphill battle, given the public's safety concerns.

Veteran oil and gas industry analyst² Charles Maxwell favors full-scale development of all alternative energy as well as decisive conservation steps . He warns that it would be better to take strong action now than wait for an energy-shortage crisis. "The more we can do before that trigger is pulled, before some event sets this stuff off, the better off we are going to be," he said.

He says such an event, whether it be a natural disaster or political upheaval¹⁶ could happen at any time, with dire¹⁰ consequences for the entire world.

1 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

2 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 legendary   

adj.传奇（中）的，闻名遐迩的；n.传奇（文学）

参考例句：

• Legendary stories are passed down from parents to children.传奇故事是由父母传给孩子们的。
• Odysseus was a legendary Greek hero.奥狄修斯是传说中的希腊英雄。

6 inefficient   

adj.效率低的，无效的

参考例句：

• The inefficient operation cost the firm a lot of money.低效率的运作使该公司损失了许多钱。
• Their communication systems are inefficient in the extreme.他们的通讯系统效率非常差。

7 technically   

adv.专门地，技术上地

参考例句：

• Technically it is the most advanced equipment ever.从技术上说，这是最先进的设备。
• The tomato is technically a fruit,although it is eaten as a vegetable.严格地说，西红柿是一种水果，尽管它是当作蔬菜吃的。

8 bolstered   

v.支持( bolster的过去式和过去分词 )；支撑；给予必要的支持；援助

参考例句：

• He bolstered his plea with new evidence. 他举出新的证据来支持他的抗辩。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The data must be bolstered by inferences and indirect estimates of varying degrees of reliability. 这些资料必须借助于推理及可靠程度不同的间接估计。 来自辞典例句

9 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

10 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

11 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

12 apex   

n.顶点，最高点

参考例句：

• He reached the apex of power in the early 1930s.他在三十年代初达到了权力的顶峰。
• His election to the presidency was the apex of his career.当选总统是他一生事业的顶峰。

13 depleted   

adj. 枯竭的, 废弃的 动词deplete的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Food supplies were severely depleted. 食物供应已严重不足。
• Both teams were severely depleted by injuries. 两个队都因队员受伤而实力大减。

14 mosaic   

n./adj.镶嵌细工的，镶嵌工艺品的，嵌花式的

参考例句：

• The sky this morning is a mosaic of blue and white.今天早上的天空是幅蓝白相间的画面。
• The image mosaic is a troublesome work.图象镶嵌是个麻烦的工作。

15 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

16 upheaval   

n.胀起，(地壳)的隆起；剧变，动乱

参考例句：

• It was faced with the greatest social upheaval since World War Ⅱ.它面临第二次世界大战以来最大的社会动乱。
• The country has been thrown into an upheaval.这个国家已经陷入动乱之中。