VOA常速英语2007年-Year-End Surprise on Iran's Nuclear Program Alt

By Gary Thomas
Washington
17 December 2007

In 2007, the long-simmering enmity between the United States and Iran came to a boil as Washington ratcheted up its accusations¹ on Tehran's nuclear weapons ambitions and its backing of insurgents² in Iraq. But, as VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, a surprise year-end U.S. intelligence estimate on Iran's nuclear program altered some political dynamics³ in both capitals.

Throughout 2007, the Bush Administration pushed hard in the international community to isolate⁴ Iran for what officials said was Iran's bid to become a nuclear weapons power. U.S. officials also accused Iran of arming and training insurgents in Iraq.

President Bush, 17 Oct 2007

In a news conference in October, President Bush even raised the specter of a world conflict if Iran acquired just the expertise⁵ to build nuclear arms.

"We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel," he said. "So I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

Iran has denied harboring any ambition to be a nuclear power, saying it was only seeking peaceful atomic energy.

The rhetoric⁶ became so tough that it sparked widespread speculation⁷ that the United States was preparing military action against Iran.

There was indeed a bombshell, but not one of a military nature. Earlier this month, the U.S. intelligence community released a new National Intelligence Estimate that said Iran had likely halted work on a nuclear weapons program in 2003 and as of mid-2007 at least had not restarted it.

The United States has insisted Iran halt uranium enrichment, which is necessary to build a nuclear bomb, as a precondition to direct negotiations⁸ between Washington and Tehran.

Ken⁹ Katzman, an Iran analyst¹⁰ at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says the Bush Administration fears the new report takes the pressure off Iran to compromise.

"The net effect of that, in the administration view, is that Iran is going to effectively get a pass, that the pressure will not now be ratcheted up on Iran enough or quickly enough and Iran will continue its [uranium] enrichment expertise unfettered almost," said Katzman.

The new U.S. assessment¹¹ was welcomed in Tehran by Iran's firebrand president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who called it a "victory' for his country.

Patrick Clawson, Deputy Director for Research and an Iranian affairs analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says President Ahmadinejad's position is now strengthened as a result of the report.

"There's been a vigorous debate in Iran in recent months about the wisdom of Ahmadinejad's aggressive and assertive¹² stance, with many of his domestic critics saying that this is endangering the country and recommending that Iran compromise instead," said Clawson. "This report has seriously undercut the critics of Ahmadinejad and made his policies look like they were the smart ones. And so this report has been a huge setback¹³ in the effort to get Iran to compromise."

But other analysts¹⁴ note that President Ahmadinejad has vigorously attacked U.S.-led efforts to rein¹⁵ in Iran's nuclear program as one way to rally domestic political support.

The Congressional Research Service's Ken Katzman says that without that diversion, attention may now turn to the Ahmadinejad administration's lackluster performance on the economy. He says Iranians' attention will perhaps turn to the booming economy of neighbors like Dubai with bewilderment and envy.

"I think the Iranian public feels that with oil prices at this level, $90 a barrel, my goodness, I think that most Iranians think that they should all be swimming in money right now," said Katzman. "And they're not. If anything, they're going backwards¹⁶. And I think that's causing a tremendous amount of frustration¹⁷, particularly in the cities."

Analysts say that could spell trouble for the Ahmadinejad camp with parliamentary elections scheduled for March and the next presidential election coming in 2009. On December 11, former president Mohammad Khatemi delivered a rare public attack on President Ahmadinejad's economic policies in a speech at Tehran University.

The Ahmadinejad government has raised the price of subsidized gasoline and introduced gasoline rationing¹⁸, and inflation rose to 19 percent as the year came to a close. Analysts say those economic woes¹⁹ could increase if U.S. efforts to get tighter international sanctions against Iran, particularly in the banking²⁰ and financial sectors²¹, succeed.

1 accusations   

n.指责( accusation的名词复数 )；指控；控告；（被告发、控告的）罪名

参考例句：

• There were accusations of plagiarism. 曾有过关于剽窃的指控。
• He remained unruffled by their accusations. 对于他们的指控他处之泰然。

2 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

3 dynamics   

n.力学，动力学，动力，原动力；动态

参考例句：

• In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利，你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
• Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。

4 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

5 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

6 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

7 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

8 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

9 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

10 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

11 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

12 assertive   

adj.果断的，自信的，有冲劲的

参考例句：

• She always speaks an assertive tone.她总是以果断的语气说话。
• China appears to have become more assertive in the waters off its coastline over recent years.在近些年，中国显示出对远方海洋的自信。

13 setback   

n.退步，挫折，挫败

参考例句：

• Since that time there has never been any setback in his career.从那时起他在事业上一直没有遇到周折。
• She views every minor setback as a disaster.她把每个较小的挫折都看成重大灾难。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

16 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

17 frustration   

n.挫折，失败，失效，落空

参考例句：

• He had to fight back tears of frustration.他不得不强忍住失意的泪水。
• He beat his hands on the steering wheel in frustration.他沮丧地用手打了几下方向盘。

18 rationing   

n.定量供应

参考例句：

• Wartime austerities included food rationing and shortage of fuel. 战时的艰苦包括食物配给和燃料短缺。
• Food rationing was abolished in that country long ago. 那个国家早就取消了粮食配给制。

19 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

20 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

21 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》