VOA常速英语2007年-Analysts Say Arab World Retreated from Democrat

By Challiss McDonough
Cairo
21 December 2007

Analysts² and activists³ in the Middle East say the year 2007 in some Arab countries was marked by backtracking from the tentative moves toward more democratization and openness that had been seen in 2005 and early 2006.  Although opinions differ, some analysts attributed some of those earlier changes to increased U.S. pressure for reform, but most now agree that whatever pressure was being exerted has eased.  VOA Correspondent Challiss McDonough has more from our Middle East bureau in Cairo.

One Cairo-based political analyst¹ who did not want to be identified called 2007 one of the worst periods for political liberties in Egypt in years, if not decades.

Police arrested hundreds of opposition⁴ activists, both secular⁵ ones and members of the banned, but usually tolerated Muslim Brotherhood⁶.  Brotherhood members were tried in military courts.  Journalists and editors from the opposition press have been sentenced to prison.

In March, the government adopted a controversial set of constitutional amendments⁷.  Critics said the referendum was held too quickly, without enough time for the public to learn about or debate the amendments.  They also said many of the constitutional changes were fundamentally undemocratic, concentrating power in the hands of the president, weakening protections for human rights and restricting the political participation⁸ of the Muslim Brotherhood even further.

And the backtracking was not limited to Egypt.  Josh Stacher is a post-doctoral fellow in Middle Eastern studies at Syracuse University.

"Well I think across the region, if we look at electoral politics, what we saw was a further adjustment by Arab regimes, in particularly the cases of Morocco and Jordan, where they've even tightened⁹ the controls on the potential Islamist gains in elections," he said.

Both countries held elections in 2007 where Islamist political parties lost ground amid allegations that the electoral process was manipulated against them.  In December, Human Rights Watch accused Jordan of presenting itself to the West as a country of political reform, but in reality, the group said, changes made since 2006 have further restricted freedom of assembly and association, and made it harder for NGOs and political parties to function.

In June of 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a much-touted foreign policy speech at the American University in Cairo.  She said for 60 years, the United States had "pursued stability at the expense of democracy" in the Middle East, but had "achieved neither."  From then on, she vowed¹⁰, the U.S. would be "taking a different course," supporting the democratic aspirations¹¹ of all people.

But when Rice visited the region during 2007, her emphasis had shifted away from Middle East democracy and toward other issues including the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, efforts to stabilize¹² Iraq, and pressuring Iran over its nuclear program.   Although there has been no official change in U.S. policy the deteriorating¹³ human rights situation in the region, and in other countries such as Pakistan, were perceived as prompting only mild protests from the United States.

Mohamad Bazzi is a visiting fellow on Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"So these actions by the U.S. really sent another message to the Arab world and the wider muslim world, that the U.S. is not going to live up to its promise to support democracy over repressive regimes, because in the end it still values keeping political stability in places like Pakistan and Egypt and Jordan and other parts of the world, it values keeping that political stability over the price of promoting democracy," he explained.

Many analysts interpret the crackdowns on Islamist parties around the region as a response to the electoral success of Hamas in the Palestinian elections of 2006, and the earlier gains by Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood in 2005.  Since then, governments have felt freer to restrain Islamist political movements as U.S. pressure for its regional allies to democratize has lessened¹⁴.

Nadim Houry is a Human Rights Watch researcher based in Beirut.

"The problem is that it's a very short-sighted policy," she said.  "You're buying short-term stability over long-term stability. Ultimately, be it in Pakistan, be it in the Middle East, the only guarantor of stability is going to be to build stable democracies. You can't sort of change the rules of the game every time you don't like the outcome."

Josh Stacher believes the U.S. pressure for reform in the Arab world is genuine, but poorly thought out and too general.

"So whenever the pressure comes in such a general way, what this does is it enables sitting autocrats¹⁵, sitting incumbents¹⁶, to manipulate the legal framework and further legalize arbitrary use of power, arbitrary use of force, and that's what we're seeing in Egypt and in a lot of these other countries," he added.

But while political freedoms were contracting across the region, another phenomenon was emerging in Egypt.  A wave of labor¹⁷ strikes started in late 2006, and gathered steam throughout 2007. 

Hundreds of thousands of workers at factories around the country took to the streets, mostly demanding pay increases and improved working conditions.

In strike after strike, the government quickly moved to meet the workers' demands.  Analysts and labor activists believed the ruling party wanted to prevent the strikes from taking on a more political tone, and turning into a widespread grassroots political movement.

Professor Joel Beinin, who teaches at both the American University of Cairo and Stanford University, specializes in the history of labor movements.  He says most people, when measuring whether Egypt is democratizing or not, are looking at the wrong things.

"There is nothing whatsoever¹⁸ in the formal political arena¹⁹, or even in the arena of the NGOs, which would support the notion that this is a society which is becoming more democratic in any meaningful way whatsoever," he noted²⁰.  "In fact, the opposite.  It's becoming more repressive as we speak."

But, he says, if one adopts the view that democracy comes from the people, and that rights are won and not given, then the massive labor strikes are a sign of real potential for democratic change.

"That's huge! There hasn't been anything like this in Egypt since before 1952," he added.  "So it's the future of that movement which is the possibility of democracy in Egypt."

The year also saw unprecedented²¹ labor actions among immigrant workers in the Gulf²² states.  Although none of these movements have yet yielded anything like political change, their very existence is perhaps a sign of changes yet to come.

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

5 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

6 brotherhood   

n.兄弟般的关系，手中情谊

参考例句：

• They broke up the brotherhood.他们断绝了兄弟关系。
• They live and work together in complete equality and brotherhood.他们完全平等和兄弟般地在一起生活和工作。

7 amendments   

（法律、文件的）改动( amendment的名词复数 )； 修正案； 修改； （美国宪法的）修正案

参考例句：

• The committee does not adequately consult others when drafting amendments. 委员会在起草修正案时没有充分征求他人的意见。
• Please propose amendments and addenda to the first draft of the document. 请对这个文件的初稿提出修改和补充意见。

8 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

9 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

10 vowed   

起誓，发誓（vow的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• He vowed quite solemnly that he would carry out his promise. 他非常庄严地发誓要实现他的诺言。
• I vowed to do more of the cooking myself. 我发誓自己要多动手做饭。

11 aspirations   

强烈的愿望( aspiration的名词复数 )； 志向； 发送气音； 发 h 音

参考例句：

• I didn't realize you had political aspirations. 我没有意识到你有政治上的抱负。
• The new treaty embodies the aspirations of most nonaligned countries. 新条约体现了大多数不结盟国家的愿望。

12 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

13 deteriorating   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The weather conditions are deteriorating. 天气变得越来越糟。
• I was well aware of the bad morale and the deteriorating factories. 我很清楚，大家情绪低落，各个工厂越搞越坏。

14 lessened   

减少的，减弱的

参考例句：

• Listening to the speech through an interpreter lessened its impact somewhat. 演讲辞通过翻译的嘴说出来，多少削弱了演讲的力量。
• The flight to suburbia lessened the number of middle-class families living within the city. 随着迁往郊外的风行，住在城内的中产家庭减少了。

15 autocrats   

n.独裁统治者( autocrat的名词复数 )；独断专行的人

参考例句：

• Still, the widespread pessimism doesn't explain the relatively high scores enjoyed by the autocrats. 不过，普遍的悲观情绪并没有解释为何独裁者得到相对较高的分数。 来自互联网

16 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

17 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

18 whatsoever   

adv.（用于否定句中以加强语气）任何；pron.无论什么

参考例句：

• There's no reason whatsoever to turn down this suggestion.没有任何理由拒绝这个建议。
• All things whatsoever ye would that men should do to you,do ye even so to them.你想别人对你怎样，你就怎样对人。

19 arena   

n.竞技场，运动场所；竞争场所，舞台

参考例句：

• She entered the political arena at the age of 25. 她25岁进入政界。
• He had not an adequate arena for the exercise of his talents.他没有充分发挥其才能的场所。

20 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

21 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

22 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。