-
(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Washington
20 September 2007
The French foreign minister sparked an uproar1 recently when he said the world should brace2 for a possible war with Iran. The statement about a possible military confrontation3 with Iran fueled expressions of concern from Russia and China. VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports that the French diplomat's statement mirrors frustration4 with Iran in other Western capitals, particularly in Washington.
Ken5 Katzman, an Iran analyst6 with the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner was voicing the fear that the Bush administration may be tempted7 to take military action against Iran.
"They are sensing from the Bush administration a growing frustration that if these sanctions are not ratcheted up dramatically and quickly, that there is going to be this pressure for military action coming from within the administration, and that President Bush might ultimately decide on such action," said Katzman. "So I think that's what you're seeing in Paris right now."
The U.S., along with other powers on the U.N. Security Council, claims Iran seeks to become a nuclear weapons power. Iran denies the charge, saying its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. Negotiations8 between Iran and the European Union have faltered9, and two sets of sanctions imposed by the Security Council have failed to deter10 Tehran.
In addition, the United States accuses Iran's Revolutionary Guards of arming, funding, and training some of the insurgents11 in Iraq.
In recent months, Washington has been swamped by rumor12, speculation13, and news stories, attributed to unnamed sources, of possible U.S. military action against Iran. The rumor mill has been fed by the harsh rhetoric14 from the Bush administration about Iran.
Alex Vatanka, a security analyst with Jane's Information Group, says the rhetorical escalation15 masks two parallel debates: one within the Bush administration about what to do about Iran, and a corresponding one in Tehran about how to respond to the U.S.
"While there is no clear-cut decision on how to tackle Iran, at the very least the U.S. wants to maintain a public pressure on the Iranians and feed that debate that's going on in Iran," he said. "And there's a very lively debate going on in Iran about what actions they should take vis-à-vis the U.S. about Iraq, about the nuclear issue.
Neoconservatives inside and outside the U.S. administration are pushing for tough action against Iran to both cut its alleged16 meddling17 in Iraq and stop its nuclear program. Other officials want to pile on new sanctions and increase diplomatic pressure to contain Iran.
Michael Ledeen, a scholar with the American Enterprise Institute who has close ties to the Bush administration, dismisses sanctions as ineffective and negotiations with Tehran as a waste of time.
Ledeen, who just published a book entitled "The Iranian Time Bomb," says he does not support military action against Iran, but says the U.S. should be fomenting18 regime change internally.
"I want to support revolution," he said. "If it worked with the Soviet19 Union, why wouldn't it work with Iran?"
But David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the British American Security Information Council, says Ledeen's book sees war as the end option if internal regime change fails.
"It really doesn't come right out and say, 'bomb that,' [but] the language is such that is kind of leads fairly close to inexorably that, well, yes, that is probably what we will ultimately have to do, although, yes, we'll fund the domestic political opposition20 first and see if we can do something with that," said Isenberg.
Stories were leaked to American media that the Bush administration was considering putting Iran's Revolutionary Guards on the list of sponsors of terrorism. However, no such move has actually been made. George Friedman, chief officer of the private intelligence firm Stratfor, says the Bush administration's policy for now, at least, is to keep Iran off balance.
"What we are signaling to the Iranians, however, is that the United States is prepared to go some distance militarily to punish Iran for actions that they're taking," said Friedman. "Now, that is a very serious threat if the Iranians believe it and the Americans are capable of it."
But analysts21 add the leadership in Tehran is also keeping Washington and the Europeans off balance with the unanswered question of how, and where, Iran might retaliate22 against any military action.
1 uproar | |
n.骚动,喧嚣,鼎沸 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
2 brace | |
n. 支柱,曲柄,大括号; v. 绷紧,顶住,(为困难或坏事)做准备 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
3 confrontation | |
n.对抗,对峙,冲突 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
4 frustration | |
n.挫折,失败,失效,落空 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
5 ken | |
n.视野,知识领域 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
6 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
7 tempted | |
v.怂恿(某人)干不正当的事;冒…的险(tempt的过去分词) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
8 negotiations | |
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
9 faltered | |
(嗓音)颤抖( falter的过去式和过去分词 ); 支吾其词; 蹒跚; 摇晃 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
10 deter | |
vt.阻止,使不敢,吓住 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
11 insurgents | |
n.起义,暴动,造反( insurgent的名词复数 ) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
12 rumor | |
n.谣言,谣传,传说 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
13 speculation | |
n.思索,沉思;猜测;投机 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
14 rhetoric | |
n.修辞学,浮夸之言语 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
15 escalation | |
n.扩大,增加 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
16 alleged | |
a.被指控的,嫌疑的 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
17 meddling | |
v.干涉,干预(他人事务)( meddle的现在分词 ) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
18 fomenting | |
v.激起,煽动(麻烦等)( foment的现在分词 ) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
19 Soviet | |
adj.苏联的,苏维埃的;n.苏维埃 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
20 opposition | |
n.反对,敌对 | |
参考例句: |
|
|
21 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
参考例句: |
|
|
22 retaliate | |
v.报复,反击 | |
参考例句: |
|
|