2007年VOA标准英语-Iran Bids For Regional Influence Amid Turmoil i

By Gary Thomas
Washington
21 September 2007

The U.S.-led ouster of Saddam Hussein in Iraq had the side effect of removing Iran's biggest enemy. But things have not gone as smoothly¹ in post-Saddam Iraq as the U.S. had hoped. U.S. officials have complained in recent months of Iranian aid to Iraqi insurgents². VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports on Iran's bid for greater influence in the Middle East.

The subject of growing Iranian influence has increasingly crept into official U.S. pronouncements on Iraq, including the most recent ones of President Bush.

"If we were to be driven out of Iraq, extremists of all strains would be emboldened," he said. "Al-Qaida could gain new recruits and new sanctuaries³. Iran would benefit from the chaos⁴ and would be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region. Extremists could control a key part of the global energy supply."

George Friedman, chief executive officer of the private intelligence firm Stratfor, says that with political progress in Iraq stalled and sectarian violence continuing, the U.S. emphasis there has shifted from democracy promotion⁵ to containing Iran.

"We are still committed to maintaining a coalition⁶ government in Baghdad and providing security for it," said Friedman. "But as it becomes less and less tenable to achieve those goals, we start looking at what Iraq looks like after. And what Iraq looks like after this strategy is a country that is likely to be dominated by the Iranians. So we're moving toward an Iran strategy."

From 1980 to 1988, Iran fought a bloody⁷ war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq that killed up to an estimated 1.5 million people. In 2003, the U.S. got rid of Iran's worst enemy by deposing⁸ Saddam Hussein, a move which, analysts¹⁰ say, opened up the door for Iran to become the dominant¹¹ power in the region.

Friedman says Iran believes its war with Iraq makes Iraq a legitimate¹² security issue for Tehran.

"Iraq is a matter of fundamental national interest for Iran," said Friedman. "The fought a very long, bitter war with Iraq in the 1980s. Iran took a million casualties. And the single most important issue for Iran is never to repeat that experience. The American view is that Iran represents a regional threat, and we have to stop them."

Michael Ledeen, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute with close ties to the Bush Administration, denies that Iran has any legitimate security interest in Iraq. He believes that the U.S. should have toppled the government in Tehran before tackling Iraq.

"We made a mistake in Iraq by failing to recognize that as soon as we set foot in Iraq the Iranians and Syrians and Saudis were going to come after us there," said Ledeen. "That was a true failure of strategic vision. And we should have supported revolution in Iran before going after Saddam Hussein, both because it was the strategically sound thing to do, and because if you're going to wage war against state sponsors of terrorism, Iran for decades now has been the leading state sponsor of terrorism."

Neighboring states of the Persian Gulf¹³, like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq. But Alex Vatanka, a security analyst⁹ with Jane's Information Group who just returned from the Gulf region, says that privately¹⁴, Gulf leaders are more worried about Iranian ambitions than the U.S. presence.

"The message you hear is, how do we know that the Americans are not going to leave the region and leave us here to face the Iranian threat by ourselves? And I think that's where you have the nuance¹⁵ come in. That's where they don't talk as hawkishly¹⁶ [publicly] as they do privately. Publicly they know they can't anger Iran as much just in the event that the U.S. was not there to protect them," said Vatanka.

Wayne White, a former deputy director of State Department intelligence, says the Gulf States fear that if the U.S. pulls out of Iraq, they will be dragged into a sectarian conflict in Iraq in which they would have to support their fellow Sunni Arabs while Iran backs its Shia proxies¹⁷. He says that would put Syria, Iran's chief regional ally, in an awkward position.

"She [Syria] has a strategic alliance with Iran, the only alliance she has," said White. "What does she do? Does she sit it out? If Sunni Arabs are being very badly brutalized in the context of ethno-sectarian cleansing¹⁸ in the country, and [President Bashir] Assad tries to sit this thing out, Syria is very much a majority Sunni Arab country, and there's going to be tremendous pressure on him to do something to support the Sunni Arabs."

The top military commander in the Middle East, Admiral William Fallon, embarked¹⁹ on a 10-day trip to Persian Gulf states on Saturday. He told the Associated Press he is not looking for a new NATO-type alliance against Iran. But, he adds, Gulf states should be united against any Iranian regional ambitions.

1 smoothly   

adv.平滑地，顺利地，流利地，流畅地

参考例句：

• The workmen are very cooperative,so the work goes on smoothly.工人们十分合作，所以工作进展顺利。
• Just change one or two words and the sentence will read smoothly.这句话只要动一两个字就顺了。

2 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

3 sanctuaries   

n.避难所( sanctuary的名词复数 )；庇护；圣所；庇护所

参考例句：

• The designation of special marine reserves and marine sanctuaries shall be subject to the State Council for approval. 海洋特别保护区、海上自然保护区的确定，须经国务院批准。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• After 1965 he acquiesced when they established sanctuaries on that soil. 1965年以后，他默认了他们在那块土地上建立庇护所。 来自辞典例句

4 chaos   

n.混乱，无秩序

参考例句：

• After the failure of electricity supply the city was in chaos.停电后，城市一片混乱。
• The typhoon left chaos behind it.台风后一片混乱。

5 promotion   

n.提升，晋级；促销，宣传

参考例句：

• The teacher conferred with the principal about Dick's promotion.教师与校长商谈了迪克的升级问题。
• The clerk was given a promotion and an increase in salary.那个职员升了级，加了薪。

6 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

7 bloody   

adj.非常的的；流血的；残忍的；adv.很；vt.血染

参考例句：

• He got a bloody nose in the fight.他在打斗中被打得鼻子流血。
• He is a bloody fool.他是一个十足的笨蛋。

8 deposing   

v.罢免( depose的现在分词 )；（在法庭上）宣誓作证

参考例句：

• Russia's offensive could be aimed at threatening Mr Lukashenka rather than deposing him. 俄罗斯的进攻其目的不在于废黜他的政权，而在于威慑他。 来自互联网
• Jon Arne Riise has stepped back in there, with Arbeloa deposing Finnan on the opposite side. 约翰．阿尔内．里瑟补上了这个位置，还有艾比路亚在另一边取代了芬南。 来自互联网

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

12 legitimate   

adj.合法的，合理的，合乎逻辑的；v.使合法

参考例句：

• Sickness is a legitimate reason for asking for leave.生病是请假的一个正当的理由。
• That's a perfectly legitimate fear.怀有这种恐惧完全在情理之中。

13 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

14 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。

15 nuance   

n.(意义、意见、颜色)细微差别

参考例句：

• These users will easily learn each nuance of the applications they use.这些用户会很快了解他们所使用程序的每一细微差别。
• I wish I hadn't become so conscious of every little nuance.我希望我不要变得这样去思索一切琐碎之事。

16 hawkishly   

鹰派的，强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

17 proxies   

n.代表权( proxy的名词复数 )；（测算用的）代替物；（对代理人的）委托书；（英国国教教区献给主教等的）巡游费

参考例句：

• SOCKS and proxies are unavailable. Try connecting to XX again? socks和代理不可用。尝试重新连接到XX吗？ 来自互联网
• All proxies are still down. Continue with direct connections? 所有的代理仍然有故障。继续直接连接吗？ 来自互联网

18 cleansing   

n. 净化(垃圾) adj. 清洁用的 动词cleanse的现在分词

参考例句：

• medicated cleansing pads for sensitive skin 敏感皮肤药物清洗棉
• Soap is not the only cleansing agent. 肥皂并不是唯一的清洁剂。

19 embarked   

乘船( embark的过去式和过去分词 )； 装载； 从事

参考例句：

• We stood on the pier and watched as they embarked. 我们站在突码头上目送他们登船。
• She embarked on a discourse about the town's origins. 她开始讲本市的起源。