VOA标准英语2008年-Political Crisis, Inflation, Power Crisis Hurt

By Nancy-Amelia Collins
Islamabad
09 January 2008

Political turmoil¹ in Pakistan, rising inflation and power shortages could derail the country's strong economic performance of the past five years. VOA's Nancy-Amelia Collins reports from Islamabad.

Pakistan has cut its economic growth forecast as its political crisis deepens following last month's assassination² of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

The central bank now expects the economy to grow by seven percent or less in the current fiscal³ year, instead of the earlier forecast of 7.2 percent.

Ms. Bhutto's assassination while campaigning for national elections sparked riots that forced thousands of businesses to shut until calm returned.

The government estimates the riots caused nearly $2 billion in property damage and lost revenue. Those losses may add to problems some economists⁵ say already confronted the country - rising inflation, fiscal and trade deficits⁷, and power shortages.

Faisal Bari, a professor of economics at Lahore's University of Management Sciences, says some of those issues should have been dealt with earlier.

 

"I think these years that we've had, we'll have to pay for some of the things that we did over the years or didn't do, as in we didn't do the reforms that were required in areas like power, in areas like judiciary, and other areas, property rights, etc.," said Bari.

Ms. Bhutto's death followed months of political turmoil. For much of last year, thousands of people protested against the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf, and the country also battled rising violence from Islamic militants⁸.

For the past several years, Pakistan's economy has shown robust⁹ growth of around seven percent annually¹⁰. Economists say it was fueled by aid from Washington to help fight terrorism, remittances¹¹ from Pakistanis working overseas and foreign investment in the country.

Economist⁴ Qaisar Bengali says the strong performance was not sustainable, partly because on the consumer side of things, it was the result of easier bank credit. That made it possible for more people to borrow to buy big items such as cars. Bengali says when consumer financing is removed, bank profits decline, automobile¹² sector¹³ growth declines, and gross domestic product growth declines.

"And this pattern of consumer-financed growth led to very sharp rise in imports," said Bengali. "Our trade deficit⁶ is completely out of control now. It has also created a very high inflation rate. So growth cannot be managed in a way that you have very good numbers for three, four, five years and then those numbers turn into a liability."

 

The trade deficit, which economists say runs above $10 billion, contributes to higher interest rates, as the nation borrows to cover the deficit.

Bengali says the government's fiscal deficit, expected to be above the earlier forecast of four percent, also adds to the problems.

"The government's current expenditure¹⁴ is running very high, it's a major contributor to inflation," said Bengali. "The government constantly borrows more money from the central bank than it has budgeted for. In the first five months of this fiscal year, they borrowed the entire amount that they were supposed to borrow for the whole year, and they've continued to borrow since then."

The central bank expects inflation to be near seven percent for the year that ends in June, compared with its target rate of 6.5 percent.

Energy problems factor into the economic woes¹⁵. Bari says the government has not reformed the energy sector to increase private investment in new electricity plants.

As a result, many parts of the country are without power six hours each day.

 

"The harder reforms that we were supposed to do when going was good were not done and I think the incoming government is going to pay for that in this year and probably the next one," said Bari.

After Ms. Bhutto's death, the government postponed¹⁶ national elections to February 18, instead holding them this week as planned. Some economists say that even if the elections go off without a hitch¹⁷, and the country's political scene calms down, the economy will provide plenty of challenges to the new government.

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 assassination   

n.暗杀；暗杀事件

参考例句：

• The assassination of the president brought matters to a head.总统遭暗杀使事态到了严重关头。
• Lincoln's assassination in 1865 shocked the whole nation.1865年，林肯遇刺事件震惊全美国。

3 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

8 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

9 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

10 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

11 remittances   

n.汇寄( remittance的名词复数 )；汇款，汇款额

参考例句：

• He sends regular remittances to his parents. 他定期汇款给他父母。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Remittances sometimes account for as much as 20% of GDP. 在这些国家中，此类汇款有时会占到GDP的20%之多。 来自互联网

12 automobile   

n.汽车，机动车

参考例句：

• He is repairing the brake lever of an automobile.他正在修理汽车的刹车杆。
• The automobile slowed down to go around the curves in the road.汽车在路上转弯时放慢了速度。

13 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

14 expenditure   

n.(时间、劳力、金钱等)支出；使用，消耗

参考例句：

• The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
• The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。

15 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

16 postponed   

vt.& vi.延期，缓办，（使）延迟vt.把…放在次要地位；[语]把…放在后面（或句尾）vi.（疟疾等）延缓发作（或复发）

参考例句：

• The trial was postponed indefinitely. 审讯无限期延迟。
• The game has already been postponed three times. 这场比赛已经三度延期了。

17 hitch   

v.免费搭(车旅行)；系住；急提；n.故障；急拉

参考例句：

• They had an eighty-mile journey and decided to hitch hike.他们要走80英里的路程，最后决定搭便车。
• All the candidates are able to answer the questions without any hitch.所有报考者都能对答如流。