VOA标准英语2008年-Experts Predict Lengthy Battles in US President

By Jim Malone
Washington
11 January 2008

The unpredictable nature of this year's U.S. presidential election campaign suggests it will be some time before the nomination¹ battles in both parties are resolved.  VOA national correspondent Jim Malone has a preview of the next important contests for both parties from Washington.

The Democratic race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama now moves West and South.

Nevada will host party caucuses³ on January 19 and South Carolina holds a primary on January 26.

After that comes so-called Super Tuesday on February 5, when more than 20 states hold primaries or caucuses.

Obama's early victory in the Iowa caucuses and Clinton's stunning⁴ comeback win in the New Hampshire primary suggest an unpredictable battle ahead for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

"Well, I think it is going to be a much longer race than anybody anticipated," said Ross Baker⁵, a political science professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey⁶.

Baker adds a Clinton defeat in New Hampshire would have been devastating⁷ for her campaign.

Baker adds that Clinton's last-minute reversal of what had been a big Obama lead in the polls had a lot to do with women voters rallying around her in the final hours of the campaign.

"I think the real miscalculation on the part of the pollsters in New Hampshire was not the support for Obama, but the support for Clinton, and particularly the support for Senator Clinton among women," he added.

If anything, the battle for the Republican Party's presidential nomination appears even more wide open.

Stuart Rothenberg publishes a political newsletter in Washington called the Rothenberg Political Report.

"Like the Democratic race, the Republican contest is a toss-up," he explained.  "The big difference is the Republican field is much larger, which means it can fracture more ways than the Democratic contest."

Experts say an argument can be made for any one of five Republican contenders to eventually win the party's presidential nomination.  They include Senator John McCain, who won the New Hampshire primary, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who placed first in the Iowa caucuses.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt⁸ Romney has a huge stake in Tuesday's primary in Michigan while former Senator Fred Thompson is banking⁹ on a good showing in the South Carolina Republican primary on January 19.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is focused on winning the January 29 primary in Florida and using that as a springboard to gain momentum¹⁰.

As in the Democratic race, the Super Tuesday contests involving more than 20 states on February 5 will be crucial.

But some experts speculate that for the first time in decades, the Republican nomination battle might not be resolved until the national nominating convention in early September in Minneapolis.

"All the way to the convention?  It is hard to imagine because somewhere along the line, even in the Republican race, someone is likely to build up some momentum,"  Stuart Rothenberg noted¹¹.  "But is it possible?  Yes, I think people are now saying it is at least theoretically possible where six months ago they were dismissing it out of hand."

Much of the conventional political wisdom last year said the earlier and more compressed primary schedule would make it likely that apparent nominees¹² would emerge for both parties fairly early in the process.

Ross Baker says a lot of analysts¹³ are revising their election timetables this year.

"I think that informed opinion was generally arguing for a quick knock-out," he said.  "That is not going to happen and my guess is that we are not really going to have a clear picture until after the 5th of February when 22 states vote."

The primary and caucus² votes continue until early June.  The Democrats¹⁴ hold their national nominating convention in late August in Denver.

The U.S. presidential election will be held November 4.

1 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

2 caucus   

n.秘密会议；干部会议；v.（参加）干部开会议

参考例句：

• This multi-staged caucus takes several months.这个多级会议常常历时好几个月。
• It kept the Democratic caucus from fragmenting.它也使得民主党的核心小组避免了土崩瓦解的危险。

3 caucuses   

n.（政党决定政策或推举竞选人的）核心成员( caucus的名词复数 )；决策干部；决策委员会；秘密会议

参考例句：

• Republican caucuses will happen in about 410 towns across Maine. 共和党团会议选举将在缅因州的约410个城镇进行。 来自互联网

4 stunning   

adj.极好的；使人晕倒的

参考例句：

• His plays are distinguished only by their stunning mediocrity.他的戏剧与众不同之处就是平凡得出奇。
• The finished effect was absolutely stunning.完工后的效果非常美。

5 baker   

n.面包师

参考例句：

• The baker bakes his bread in the bakery.面包师在面包房内烤面包。
• The baker frosted the cake with a mixture of sugar and whites of eggs.面包师在蛋糕上撒了一层白糖和蛋清的混合料。

6 jersey   

n.运动衫

参考例句：

• He wears a cotton jersey when he plays football.他穿运动衫踢足球。
• They were dressed alike in blue jersey and knickers.他们穿着一致，都是蓝色的运动衫和灯笼短裤。

7 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

8 mitt   

n.棒球手套，拳击手套，无指手套；vt.铐住，握手

参考例句：

• I gave him a baseball mitt for his birthday.为祝贺他的生日，我送给他一只棒球手套。
• Tom squeezed a mitt and a glove into the bag.汤姆把棒球手套和手套都塞进袋子里。

9 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

10 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

11 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

12 nominees   

n.被提名者，被任命者( nominee的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• She's one of the nominees. 她是被提名者之一。 来自超越目标英语 第2册
• A startling number of his nominees for senior positions have imploded. 他所提名的高级官员被否决的数目令人震惊。 来自互联网

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》