VOA标准英语2008年-Analysts: Iran Parliamentary Election Crucial F

By Gary Thomas
Washington
14 January 2008

Iran holds parliamentary elections March 14 that are widely expected to be something of a referendum on the policies of the country's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. As VOA Correspondent Gary Thomas reports, they may also give signals as to who is in and who is out in Iran's circles of power.

After Friday's deadline had passed, Iranian officials said about 7,200 people, including 590 women, had applied¹ to be candidates for the 290-seat Majlis, or parliament.

But candidates must still be approved by the 12-member Guardian² Council, which was criticized for disqualifying thousands of reform candidates in previous elections.

As there are no political parties in Iran, candidates run as individuals, but their affiliation³ with one faction⁴ or another is clear to voters. The list of aspiring⁵ legislators ranges from reformist to staunch conservative. The reformists hope to break the hold of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the Majlis and pave the way for ousting⁶ Mr. Ahmadinejad in the 2009 presidential election.

Analysts⁸ say the release in December of a new U.S. national intelligence estimate on Iran's nuclear program has spawned⁹ political fallout. The estimate said Iran had halted nuclear-weapons research in 2003, and that it is not certain that Iran wants to pursue nuclear weapons.

The security editor for the U.S. edition of Jane's Intelligence, Alex Vatanka, says the publication of the report shifted Iran's political focus from confrontation¹⁰ with the United States to domestic economic affairs.

"What the American National Intelligence Estimate has done is make it very difficult for Ahmadinejad and the new Islamist faction that he is essentially¹¹ spearheading to play the nationalist card anymore," said Alex Vatanka. "With the American gun removed from the Iranian head, Ahmadinejad is now being criticized for his biggest shortcomings since taking over, and that is the total failure of his economic policies."

Mr. Ahmadinejad won the presidency¹² in 2005 on a populist platform of redistributing Iran's oil wealth and helping¹³ the poor. But even with record prices for oil, Iran's economy remains¹⁴ in the doldrums, with inflation at around 19 percent and growth stalling at near five percent.

Vatanka says for most voters the economy is the most impotatnt issue.

"The truth of the matter is this: U.S.-Iran relations is a subject that really concerns the elite¹⁵ in Iran, and at best the upper middle classes," said Vatanka. "This is not an issue that your ordinary Iranian has the time or energy or resources to get engaged or get involved with. On the other hand, when the price of bread, petrol, housing goes up, that's when they start feeling the pressure."

Prominent figures such as former Iranian presidents Mohammad Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, ex-nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani, and former Revolutionary Guards chief Mohsen Rezaie have all publicly criticized Mr. Ahmadinejad recently over the economy.

There are competing centers of power in Iran, and the presidency is only one of them. The most powerful figure remains the supreme¹⁶ leader, Ali Khamenei. Analysts say Khamenei tacitly backed Mr. Ahmadinejad in the 2005 election.

But Ken¹⁷ Katzman, Iran affairs analyst⁷ at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, believes that the supreme leader has become increasingly concerned about Mr. Ahmadinejad's bellicose¹⁸ statements.

"The supreme leader views Ahmadinejad as somewhat impulsive¹⁹ and has the potential to lead Iran into a confrontation, which the supreme leader knows full well would not particularly benefit Iran, and Iran would not particularly look too good in such a confrontation," said Ken Katzman. "So I felt all along that this split was emerging."

Katzman believes that the pendulum²⁰ will swing away from the Ahmadinejad camp back to more moderate conservatives, such as Rafsanjani, who lost to Mr. Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential election.

"I think it is going to swing back more towards the center," he said. "Obviously Khamenei, the supreme leader, and the establishment is obviously not going to support the reformists. They would not go that far. But I think they are going to support a brand of candidate who is not an 'Ahmadinejadite', so to speak, not sympathetic to him, but much more reasoned candidates."

The Guardian Council will not announce the slate²¹ of approved candidates until March 5, which gives prospective²² parliamentarians little time to campaign before the March 14 vote.

1 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

2 guardian   

n.监护人；守卫者，保护者

参考例句：

• The form must be signed by the child's parents or guardian. 这张表格须由孩子的家长或监护人签字。
• The press is a guardian of the public weal. 报刊是公共福利的卫护者。

3 affiliation   

n.联系，联合

参考例句：

• There is no affiliation between our organization and theirs,even though our names are similar.尽管两个组织的名称相似，但我们之间并没有关系。
• The kidnappers had no affiliation with any militant group.这些绑架者与任何军事组织都没有紧密联系。

4 faction   

n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争

参考例句：

• Faction and self-interest appear to be the norm.派系之争和自私自利看来非常普遍。
• I now understood clearly that I was caught between the king and the Bunam's faction.我现在完全明白自己已陷入困境，在国王与布纳姆集团之间左右为难。

5 aspiring   

adj.有志气的；有抱负的；高耸的v.渴望；追求

参考例句：

• Aspiring musicians need hours of practice every day. 想当音乐家就要每天练许多小时。
• He came from an aspiring working-class background. 他出身于有抱负的工人阶级家庭。 来自辞典例句

6 ousting   

驱逐( oust的现在分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• The resulting financial chaos led to the ousting of Bristol-Myers' s boss. 随后引发的财政混乱导致了百时美施贵宝的总裁下台。
• The ousting of the president has drawn widespread criticism across Latin America and the wider world. 洪都拉斯总统被驱逐时间引起拉丁美洲甚至全世界的广泛批评。

7 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 spawned   

（鱼、蛙等）大量产（卵）( spawn的过去式和过去分词 )； 大量生产

参考例句：

• The band's album spawned a string of hit singles. 这支乐队的专辑繁衍出一连串走红的单曲唱片。
• The computer industry has spawned a lot of new companies. 由于电脑工业的发展，许多新公司纷纷成立。

10 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

11 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 elite   

n.精英阶层；实力集团；adj.杰出的，卓越的

参考例句：

• The power elite inside the government is controlling foreign policy.政府内部的一群握有实权的精英控制着对外政策。
• We have a political elite in this country.我们国家有一群政治精英。

16 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

17 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

18 bellicose   

adj.好战的；好争吵的

参考例句：

• He expressed alarm about the government's increasingly bellicose statements.他对政府越来越具挑衅性的声明表示担忧。
• Some irresponsible politicians made a bellicose remarks.一些不负责任的政客说出一些好战的话语。

19 impulsive   

adj.冲动的，刺激的；有推动力的

参考例句：

• She is impulsive in her actions.她的行为常出于冲动。
• He was neither an impulsive nor an emotional man,but a very honest and sincere one.他不是个一冲动就鲁莽行事的人，也不多愁善感.他为人十分正直、诚恳。

20 pendulum   

n.摆，钟摆

参考例句：

• The pendulum swung slowly to and fro.钟摆在慢慢地来回摆动。
• He accidentally found that the desk clock did not swing its pendulum.他无意中发现座钟不摇摆了。

21 slate   

n.板岩，石板，石片，石板色，候选人名单；adj.暗蓝灰色的，含板岩的；vt.用石板覆盖，痛打，提名，预订

参考例句：

• The nominating committee laid its slate before the board.提名委员会把候选人名单提交全体委员会讨论。
• What kind of job uses stained wood and slate? 什么工作会接触木头污浊和石板呢？

22 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。