VOA标准英语10月-Kenya Not Immune From Global Downturn

Developing countries in Africa are bracing¹ for serious setbacks in their economies. One of the countries that may feel the effects of the downturn more acutely than others is Kenya, which suffered months of political unrest earlier this year. VOA Correspondent Alisha Ryu in Nairobi recently spoke² to a number of experts about what challenges lie ahead for the largest economy in East Africa.
　

A trader monitors share prices at the Nairobi Stock Exchange floor in Nairobi, Kenya, 09 Oct 2008

A decade ago, news reports about a global credit crunch³ might not have generated high anxiety among ordinary Kenyans.

Back then, Kenya's banking⁴ system mirrored that of many others on the continent, lacking liquidity⁵ and frequently criticized by industrialized powers for being excessively regulated. Tight controls on foreign exchange meant that banks here could not raise more money to invest in exotic Western financial instruments.

Kenya's financial market is far more open now, but it is still not comparable to those in the United States, Europe, or Asia. Julius Muia, the chief executive of the state-run National Economic and Social Council think-tank, says lagging behind the others may now prove to be an advantage for the country.

"The Kenyan economy is not connected that intricately with the U.S. economy or the European economy because we do not have derivatives⁶ in this market," said Muia. "Secondly⁷, we do not have asset-backed securities in Kenya. Therefore, the effect that we see coming soon is what we call secondary effect."

Independent economists⁹ agree that Kenya, like many countries in Africa, will not be directly hit by the financial storm in the rest of the world. But economists worry that Kenya may be underestimating how those secondary effects could impact a country which began the year far from being financially sound.

In early January, opposition¹⁰ protests over the alleged¹¹ rigging of a hotly-contested presidential election on December 30 triggered widespread ethnic¹² violence. More than 1,000 people were killed and some 350,000 were displaced during two months of fighting.

The country's annual economic growth of about six percent began to slip as foreigners canceled trips. Agricultural activity came to a halt as farmers abandoned their fields and farms that export tons of fresh-cut flowers to markets around the world shut down amid the unprecedented¹³ violence.

At the same time, inflation soared and a food security crisis brought on by drought and rising fuel and fertilizer prices worsened.

Although the formation of a power-sharing government in April restored calm, the director of the Institute for African Development at Cornell University in New York, Muna Ndulo, notes that the political alliance remains¹⁴ fragile, as does the Kenyan economy.

He says any negative pressure on the economy has the potential to unravel¹⁵ the coalition¹⁶ government and fuel more ethnic tension.

"Clearly, if the economy is not growing and you have an unstable¹⁷ situation, it makes the situation worse because it means [you have] less resources to deal with the problem. It means unemployment increases and the lack of investment just makes that worse. So, one, of course, worries about the impact of all of this," said Ndulo.

According to the World Bank, only one percent of Kenya's $17 economy is dependent on foreign aid.

While that means Kenya and its 33 million citizens are not as vulnerable to the effects of reduced donor¹⁸ funding as other countries in the region, local economist⁸ Robert Shaw notes that the country is heavily dependent on foreign private investment and demand, particularly from Europe and the United States.

Shaw says a reduction in business and consumer spending in both places could translate to huge losses in Kenya. "Last year, our largest foreign exchange earner was tourism," he said. "It was very dependent on the European market and even though the number of visitors from the States [United States] were small, the actual money was quite high."

"What you have got now is that there are many potential visitors who are saying, 'Hold on, I have lost some savings¹⁹. I am not feeling comfortable about spending money on a vacation.' Its linkage²⁰ with the global economy is there. And we are one of the largest exporters of flowers and horticultural produce and you know, luxuries such as flowers are the first ones to get cut. We have got to be realistic and say we are going to be impacted. The looming²¹ recession that is likely to hit many countries could certainly come here," he added.

Economists suggest that the Kenyan government can cushion the blow of an economic downturn by adopting more liberalized policies that could significantly boost cross-border and regional trade.

1 bracing   

adj.令人振奋的

参考例句：

• The country is bracing itself for the threatened enemy invasion. 这个国家正准备奋起抵抗敌人的入侵威胁。
• The atmosphere in the new government was bracing. 新政府的气氛是令人振奋的。

2 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

3 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

6 derivatives   

n.衍生性金融商品；派生物，引出物( derivative的名词复数 )；导数

参考例句：

• Many English words are derivatives of Latin words. 许多英语词来自拉丁语。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These compounds are nitrosohydroxylamine derivatives. 这类合成物是亚硝基羟胺衍生物。 来自辞典例句

7 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

11 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

12 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

13 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 unravel   

v.弄清楚（秘密）；拆开，解开，松开

参考例句：

• He was good with his hands and could unravel a knot or untangle yarn that others wouldn't even attempt.他的手很灵巧，其他人甚至都不敢尝试的一些难解的绳结或缠在一起的纱线，他都能解开。
• This is the attitude that led him to unravel a mystery that long puzzled Chinese historians.正是这种态度使他解决了长期以来使中国历史学家们大惑不解的谜。

16 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

17 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

18 donor   

n.捐献者；赠送人；(组织、器官等的)供体

参考例句：

• In these cases,the recipient usually takes care of the donor afterwards.在这类情况下，接受捐献者以后通常会照顾捐赠者。
• The Doctor transplanted the donor's heart to Mike's chest cavity.医生将捐赠者的心脏移植进麦克的胸腔。

19 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

20 linkage   

n.连接；环节

参考例句：

• In their monographic treatment of linkage,they have emphasized this especially.他们在论连锁的专题文章中特别强调了这点。
• Occasionally,problems with block inheritance or linkage are encountered.有时会遇到区段遗传或连锁问题。

21 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望