VOA标准英语10月-Commodity Prices Tumble in Australia as Credit Cr

Australia's economy has enjoyed years of solid growth thanks to a booming resources sector¹. Now, the good times appear to be fading as the global credit crisis affects China's appetite for Australian iron and other minerals. From Sydney, Phil Mercer reports.
　

Man looks at Australian Securities Exchange board, 10 Oct 2008

As the world economy tumbles, commodity prices have also fallen sharply. Shares in Australian mining giants, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, have plunged².

It has been a spectacular fall for a sector that until recently had enjoyed record-breaking prices.

Matthew Smith, an economist³ at the University of Sydney, expects worse to follow.

"What we've seen at the moment there's clearly been a lot of speculative⁴ activity in commodities partly because of the credit boom as well and that is now going to disappear and you'll see prices immediately fall, I think," Smith said. "They will fall further as the demand for these commodities will fall. So, yes that will tend to bring down price inflation."

The inflation rate measures changes in the cost of living and in the prices of goods and services. In Australia it stands at 4.5 percent a year, which is much higher than the country's Reserve Bank would like. The Asian Development Bank estimates that average inflation across Asia has increased to seven-point-eight percent in 2008 - the highest in more than a decade.

Falling commodity prices should help to bring inflation down but Smith thinks that other economic factors in Australia could temper falls in the cost of living.

"There is one thing though and that is the exchange rate in Australia has fallen considerably⁵ by about 25 percent over the last month," Smith said. "So, that will feed into higher import prices and so that will mean that there will be some consumer goods that will be higher. (The) cost of living will remain fairly high for a period of time before it starts subsiding⁶ and settling down."

A weaker Australian dollar also keeps the benefits of falling oil prices from being passed onto drivers.

World grain prices also have been tumbling from the highs of early this year, but from Manila's food stalls to Sydney's supermarkets, consumers are not yet seeing lower food prices.

There have been serious supply problems in global agriculture, including storms that have hurt the rice crop in Southeast Asia, and a drought in Australia that has hampered⁷ the harvest.

Analysts⁹ fear that farmers, frustrated¹⁰ by falling prices and credit shortages, will plant less.

Luke Chandler, from Rabobank Australia, thinks the commodity market turbulence¹¹ will continue.

"The commodity markets have really been battered¹² by the uncertainty¹³ we've had in the broader economy," Chandler noted¹⁴. "And it's really going to take a period of adjustment until we get some relative stability in these financial markets so that we can see a turnaround in the confidence of traders and investors¹⁵ to step back into the markets."

There is some optimism for the Australian resource market. Industry experts think that while exports of commodities to China will suffer in the short-term, the situation further down the track is much brighter, which will help to insulate Australia from the worst effects of the global slowdown.

Market analyst⁸ Peter Arden says that Asia's demand for Australian minerals will recover.

"The world has grown a lot bigger over that decade and still needs minerals to replace ones that have been mined out of traditional deposits," Arden said. "So, the sector still has a very robust¹⁶ condition about it and it still will enjoy very good times because at the end of the day, in our view, the industrializations and particularly urbanizations going on in India and China are very long-run things that support long-term commodity demand."

In the meantime, the Australian government this week announced an unprecedented¹⁷ package to help the economy ride out the global downturn.

The plan will use about $6.7 billion to stimulate¹⁸ demand by giving cash handouts¹⁹ to retirees, first-time home buyers and others with low incomes. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd hopes the money will keep the economy afloat during these troubled times.

"What began as a patch of bad weather in America has now become a cyclone²⁰ that has threatened to engulf²¹ the world," Rudd said. "But my message to the nation today is that while these winds of ill-fortune have battered institutions and shattered confidence across the world, the Australian financial system remains²² strong. Our economy remains strong."

It is, though, likely to become sluggish²³. While any falls in inflation and interest rates, will be good for consumers, an economic downturn will almost certainly cost jobs. Australia, like other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, may escape the worst of the global financial meltdown, but it will suffer economic pain.

1 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

2 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 speculative   

adj.思索性的，暝想性的，推理的

参考例句：

• Much of our information is speculative.我们的许多信息是带推测性的。
• The report is highly speculative and should be ignored.那个报道推测的成分很大，不应理会。

5 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

6 subsiding   

v.（土地）下陷（因在地下采矿）( subside的现在分词 )；减弱；下降至较低或正常水平；一下子坐在椅子等上

参考例句：

• The flooded river was subsiding rapidly. 泛滥的河水正在迅速退落。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Gradually the tension was subsiding, gradually the governor was relenting. 风潮渐渐地平息了。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

7 hampered   

妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The search was hampered by appalling weather conditions. 恶劣的天气妨碍了搜寻工作。
• So thought every harassed, hampered, respectable boy in St. Petersburg. 圣彼德堡镇的那些受折磨、受拘束的体面孩子们个个都是这么想的。

8 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 frustrated   

adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's very easy to get frustrated in this job. 这个工作很容易令人懊恼。
• The bad weather frustrated all our hopes of going out. 恶劣的天气破坏了我们出行的愿望。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 turbulence   

n.喧嚣，狂暴，骚乱，湍流

参考例句：

• The turbulence caused the plane to turn over.空气的激流导致飞机翻转。
• The world advances amidst turbulence.世界在动荡中前进。

12 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

13 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

14 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

15 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

16 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

17 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

18 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

19 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

20 cyclone   

n.旋风，龙卷风

参考例句：

• An exceptionally violent cyclone hit the town last night.昨晚异常猛烈的旋风吹袭了那个小镇。
• The cyclone brought misery to thousands of people.旋风给成千上万的人带来苦难。

21 engulf   

vt.吞没，吞食

参考例句：

• Floodwaters engulf a housing project in the Bajo Yuna community in central Dominican Republic.洪水吞没了多米尼加中部巴杰优那社区的一处在建的住房工程项目。
• If we are not strong enough to cover all the minds up,then they will engulf us,and we are in danger.如果我们不够坚强来抵挡大众的意念，就会有被他们吞没的危险。

22 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

23 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。