VOA常速英语2008年-Kenya's Economy Suffers Amid Unrest

By Derek Kilner
Nairobi
11 February 2008

Kenya has been one of Africa's strongest-performing economies in recent years, averaging more than five percent growth since 2003 and with projected growth as high as eight percent for 2008. But political violence that has killed 1,000 people and displaced more than 300,000 since a disputed election in late December, has seriously hindered Kenya's economic performance. Derek Kilner has more from Nairobi.

Growth estimates for 2008 have dropped to around four percent. The Kenya Association of Manufacturers says that 49,000 jobs have been lost, but that figure does not include many of the people who have been displaced. If they cannot return home, up to 400,000 jobs could be at risk.

Tourism, Kenya's leading industry, with revenue of nearly $1 billion in 2007, has been hit particularly hard. Tourist arrivals for the first quarter of 2008 are expected to drop by more than 91 percent, with a decline in revenue of nearly $80 million per month.

To make matters worse, the unrest has come in the middle of tourism's high season, when hotels on the coast and tour operators rely on pulling in a major portion of their yearly income.

Kenya Tourist Board Managing Director Ong'ong'a Achieng' says that 20,000 lost jobs have been reported, but the effects will be felt more broadly.

"We can talk of 20,000, but I think it is much more. The figures we get are from hotels and lodges¹ - but we are not talking of other budget hotels and all other business associated with tourism. It is much more than that," he said. 

Kenya's tourism industry has endured periods of crisis before. But the Tourist Board says the current challenge is greater than that after terrorist attacks on the American embassy in Nairobi in 1998 and on an Israeli-owned hotel on the coast in 2002.

Kenya's booming flower industry is also in one of its busiest periods before Valentine's Day. The town of Naivasha, Kenya's main center for growing flowers, was the site of deadly clashes in the last week of January that prevented more than two thirds of employees from coming to work.

CEO Jane Ngige, of the Kenya Flower Council, says 80 percent of industry employees are working now, and temporary security measures have allowed most of the Valentine's Day demand to be met. But she says the crisis will pose longer-term challenges to the industry, as importers and investors² look to other countries.

"They will be wondering whether in the long term we shall be still as reliable as we have been in the past. We have got Ethiopia that is growing very fast. We have got Mexico that is also been coming up to produce the kind of flowers we do, we have got India that has come back. So yes, there is a lot of people standing³ in the wings," she said

The situation has calmed considerably⁴ in the past week, as the country watches a mediation⁵ effort between the government and opposition⁶ led by former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Kenya Association of Manufacturers Chairman Steven Smith says business operations are beginning to return to normal.

"People are moving their products. In the stores that did not get burned down, shelves are now being stocked in Eldoret, Kisii, Kericho, Kisumu as we speak. People are starting to get back to some kind of normalcy," he said.

If things remain calm, Smith estimates that 12 to 18 months will be required for the economy to return to the level of late 2007.

University of Nairobi economist⁷ Terry Ryan says that poor weather for agriculture would also have slowed the economy regardless of political unrest.

He says prospects⁸ of recovery vary between industries. The tourism industry could require considerable time to regain⁹ lost revenue and rebuild confidence. But other industries may be able to bounce back more quickly.

"The amount of destruction of capital equipment is not that large. It is spectacular where you see it because it is burning things, but the main industrial plant is in Nairobi and Mombasa, which is relatively¹⁰ unaffected," he said.

If widespread unrest returns the economic costs will be far higher, and recovery much more difficult. Ryan says one of the biggest threats is that Kenya would lose its status as an economic hub, as landlocked countries to the west look for alternative supply routes.

"Where you lose seriously is if this thing is sustained for any length of time then hinterland countries will generate new facilities for importing so we will lose all the transit¹¹ traffic. Now that is quite serious because once that has been developed - I am thinking particularly through Tanzania on to the lake across into Uganda Rwanda and to Sudan - it is hard to recapture," he said.

For now, all eyes are on Mr. Annan's mediation effort. But even if a political solution is reached soon, the full extent of the economic impact of Kenya's crisis could take considerable time to assess.

1 lodges   

v.存放( lodge的第三人称单数 )；暂住；埋入；（权利、权威等）归属

参考例句：

• But I forget, if I ever heard, where he lodges in Liverpool. 可是我记不得有没有听他说过他在利物浦的住址。 来自辞典例句
• My friend lodges in my uncle's house. 我朋友寄居在我叔叔家。 来自辞典例句

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

4 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

5 mediation   

n.调解

参考例句：

• The dispute was settled by mediation of the third country. 这场争端通过第三国的斡旋而得以解决。
• The dispute was settled by mediation. 经调解使争端得以解决。

6 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

9 regain   

vt.重新获得，收复，恢复

参考例句：

• He is making a bid to regain his World No.1 ranking.他正为重登世界排名第一位而努力。
• The government is desperate to regain credibility with the public.政府急于重新获取公众的信任。

10 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

11 transit   

n.经过，运输；vt.穿越，旋转；vi.越过

参考例句：

• His luggage was lost in transit.他的行李在运送中丢失。
• The canal can transit a total of 50 ships daily.这条运河每天能通过50条船。