VOA常速英语2008年-OECD Downgrades US Economic Outlook

By Lisa Bryant
Paris
20 March 2008

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) published a grim assessment¹ Thursday of the United States economy, saying it was close to recession.  However, the OECD suggested European economies will likely fare better this year.  Lisa Bryant has more for VOA from the French capital.

The OECD downgraded its estimates for U.S. growth to just 0.1 percent for the first quarter of this year. Overall, the organization predicted the American economy would grow just 1.4 percent in 2008, far below its previous estimate in December of a two percent growth.

The OECD is an international economic research organization based in Paris.

OECD chief economist² Jorgen Elmeskov says it might be premature³ to declare a recession in the United States. But at a press conference in Paris, Elmeskov said the U.S. economy would be extremely weak for at least the first half of this year, hampered⁴ by a credit crunch⁵ and the collapse⁶ of the U.S. housing market.

"It's hard to say how far advanced we are in the U.S. housing construction adjustments," he explained.  "The share of GDP housing construction is probably down now to around somewhere like 3.8 percent of GDP.  Which correspondents to the average level in previous slumps⁸.  But it is clear that this slump⁷ has got further to go. There are no signs from any indicator⁹ of construction activity that things are about to change."

The OECD said the so-called euro-zone economies - those European Union economies using the euro as their currency - have brighter prospects¹⁰, and kept the prediction of 1.5 percent growth unchanged.

While a strong euro makes European exports more expensive, it also makes the price of oil cheaper.  Still, the organization has raised alarm about possible inflation for the euro-area.

The OECD also issued a somewhat downbeat prognosis for Japan, predicting only a 1.5 percent growth rate for 2008, down from its earlier prediction of 1.6 percent growth.

1 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

4 hampered   

妨碍，束缚，限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The search was hampered by appalling weather conditions. 恶劣的天气妨碍了搜寻工作。
• So thought every harassed, hampered, respectable boy in St. Petersburg. 圣彼德堡镇的那些受折磨、受拘束的体面孩子们个个都是这么想的。

5 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

6 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

7 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

8 slumps   

萧条期( slump的名词复数 )； （个人、球队等的）低潮状态； （销售量、价格、价值等的）骤降； 猛跌

参考例句：

• Deflation could emerge from simultaneous slumps in the world's three major economies. 如果世界经济三大主体同时衰退，通货紧缩就会出现。
• This is the cycle of economic booms and slumps. 这是经济繁荣和经济萧条的周期变化。

9 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

10 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。