VOA常速英语2008年-Iranian President Faces Challenges Despite Elec

By Gary Thomas
Washington
20 March 2008

Loyalists of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were big winners in the recent parliamentary elections.  With many reformists locked out of the electoral process, the contests were primarily between different factions¹ in the conservative camp.  In this election analysis, VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports that the Iranian president could still face some rough times ahead as the presidential election looms² on the horizon.
 
For many Iran watchers, the key question is why, despite high inflation, rising prices and gasoline rationing³, Iranian voters seemed reluctant to blame President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for their economic woes⁴.

With most of the prominent reformists blocked from competing, the parliamentary elections turned into a contest of conservative factions.  Those Ahmadinejad loyalists, who call themselves principalists, squared off against more pragmatic conservatives who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad economic policies.  The Ahmadinejad camp won the largest share of seats in the Majlis, or parliament.

The final balance of power in the Majlis will not be known until a runoff election in May. 

Hooshang Amirahmadi, a professor at Rutgers University and president of the American-IranianCouncil, says President Ahmadinejad successfully shifted blame for Iran's economic woes elsewhere.

"To my surprise they also blame the outside world," Amirahmadi said. "They blame sanctions.  Ahmadinejad has obviously been successful to some extent in transferring the blame to the U.N., to the U.S., to Europe.  Although they [the Iranians] say the sanctions are not effective, they do blame inflation on the outside [world]."

Iran has been sanctioned for its alleged⁵ ambitions to be a nuclear weapons power.  Iran denies the charge.

The United States and European nations have denounced the elections as unfree and unfair. 

In an interview with VOA's Persian News Network, President Bush says he is not surprised that Iranian politicians tried to shift the blame for Iran's economic woes.

"Any time a government is failing to meet the needs of people - or a lot of times, not any time - but a lot of times governments have failed to meet the needs of their people, particularly in relatively⁶ non-transparent, non-free societies they always look for somebody to blame," he said. "And I'm not surprised that the leaders would blame the United States for the problems they themselves have created."

Ken⁷ Katzman, an Iran analyst⁸ at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, says President Ahmadinejad, who campaigned on a populist platform in the last presidential election in 2005, retains a loyal base in the rural areas.

"What I think that many in the West, including maybe myself, felt was that because his economic policies were not that successful, the voters would make him pay," Katzman said. "But the rural voters seem to like the fact that he is at least paying attention to their concerns. He visits, he gets petitions, he at least surveys with his own eyes what the rural voter is facing.  And inflation is maybe not that much of a big deal to the rural voters because maybe they can get more for their farm products."

Analysts⁹ say the conservative pragmatists still won enough seats to make life difficult for the president in the Majlis and to challenge him in next year's presidential election.

Hooshang Amirahmadi, who was in Iran just before the elections, says he would not bet against Mr. Ahmadinejad at this point, although, he adds, what happens in U.S.-Iranian relations will affect the political dynamic in Tehran.

"A year from now, God knows," Amirahmadi said. "Iran is a land of surprises and all kinds of things can happen.  And I think U.S.-Iran relations can have a serious impact on the way things go. If, God forbid, there is a military move against Iran in the next seven, eight months or a year, I can almost 100 percent assure you that people like Ahmadinejad will stay in power and even become stronger."

Katzman adds that those reformists who were allowed to run did comparatively well, and could still emerge as a political force next year.

"After Ahmadinejad won in '05, the reformists were basically prostrate," he said. "They were just in complete and utter disarray¹⁰, holding conferences, hand-wringing about what went wrong, etcetera.  Now they at least seem to found some sea legs.  They're regrouping, they're trying to get organized.  And I think to count them out would be a mistake."

The Iranian presidential election is expected to be held in June 2009 or shortly thereafter.

1 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

2 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 rationing   

n.定量供应

参考例句：

• Wartime austerities included food rationing and shortage of fuel. 战时的艰苦包括食物配给和燃料短缺。
• Food rationing was abolished in that country long ago. 那个国家早就取消了粮食配给制。

4 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

5 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

6 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

7 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

8 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

9 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

10 disarray   

n.混乱，紊乱，凌乱

参考例句：

• His personal life fell into disarray when his wife left him.妻子离去后，他的个人生活一片混乱。
• Our plans were thrown into disarray by the rail strike.铁路罢工打乱了我们的计划。