VOA常速英语2008年-New Polls Show A Shifting US Presidential Race

By Jim Malone
Washington
20 March 2008

Some new public opinion polls suggest a close and volatile¹ presidential race in the months ahead. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone has more from Washington.

Some good news for Hillary Clinton in her battle with Barack Obama for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination².

The latest Gallup poll has Clinton pulling ahead of Obama by a margin³ of 49 to 42 percent.

But there was also good news for the presumed Republican presidential nominee⁴, Senator John McCain. The latest Reuters-Zogby poll shows McCain beating Obama by a margin of 46 to 40 percent, and defeating Clinton by a margin of 48 to 40 percent.

McCain was in Britain Thursday as part of a congressional trip to Europe and the Middle East.

After a meeting with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, McCain said he appreciated British military efforts in Iraq.

"All I can do is express my gratitude⁵ to the British government and people, and especially the young people who are serving," said McCain.

McCain has made victory in Iraq the centerpiece of his presidential campaign, and has criticized Democrats⁶ Clinton and Obama for advocating a gradual withdrawal⁷ of U.S. troops from Iraq.

Obama took his presidential campaign to West Virginia where he said the half trillion dollar cost of the Iraq war was a drag on the U.S. economy.

Obama also criticized McCain for embracing President Bush's policies on Iraq and the economy.

"No matter what the costs, no matter what the consequences, John McCain seems determined⁸ to carry out a third Bush term," said Barack Obama. "That is an outcome America cannot afford."

Recent polls suggest about 60 percent of Americans still view the Iraq war as a mistake. But a growing number of voters now see the military surge strategy in Iraq as a success and believe McCain might be the candidate best able to handle the situation in Iraq.

Karlyn Bowman monitors U.S. public opinion.

"The war, at least at this stage, is not the albatross that many people predicted it would be for the Republican candidate," said Karlyn Bowman.

McCain has the luxury of having his nomination battle wrapped up. That is not the case for Obama and Clinton as they look ahead to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

Senator Clinton is hoping to cut into Obama's lead in the delegate count with a victory in Pennsylvania, and is also hoping for re-votes in the large states of Florida and Michigan.

"So again, I would call on Senator Obama to join me in supporting the rights of the people of Michigan and Florida to have their voices and their votes counted," said Hillary Clinton.

Florida and Michigan held primaries in January that Clinton won. But the national Democratic Party disallowed⁹ the results because the two states moved up the dates of their primaries in violation¹⁰ of party rules.

Clinton is hoping that re-votes of the two primaries would give her new momentum¹¹ and added delegates in her battle with Obama. But it now appears unlikely that state party officials in both states will be able to agree on holding either a new primary or a mail-in vote.

Political analysts¹² say redoing the Florida and Michigan votes is a key part of Clinton's strategy to win the Democratic nomination.

John Fortier is a political expert at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

"She really needed not only the delegates, but the momentum and the possibility of more delegates out there to keep her campaign going," said John Fortier. "And as it looks like that is not going to happen, the odds¹³ of her winning the nomination are very, very small. The delegates are not there, the momentum is not there, and because of that you may see some super delegates coming to that conclusion in the next few weeks before Pennsylvania."

Super delegates are uncommitted party activists¹⁴ and elected officials who will play a crucial role in choosing the Democratic party nominee for president. Neither Obama nor Clinton can win enough delegates in the remaining primaries or caucuses¹⁵ to secure the nomination outright¹⁶, so both candidates are making a play for their support.

1 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

2 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

3 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

4 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

5 gratitude   

adj.感激，感谢

参考例句：

• I have expressed the depth of my gratitude to him.我向他表示了深切的谢意。
• She could not help her tears of gratitude rolling down her face.她感激的泪珠禁不住沿着面颊流了下来。

6 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

8 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

9 disallowed   

v.不承认（某事物）有效( disallow的过去式和过去分词 )；不接受；不准；驳回

参考例句：

• The judge disallowed that evidence. 法官驳回那项证据。 来自辞典例句
• Her claim was disallowed on the ground(s) that she had not paid her premium. 她要求赔款遭到拒绝，原因是她事先没有交纳保险费。 来自辞典例句

10 violation   

n.违反(行为)，违背(行为)，侵犯

参考例句：

• He roared that was a violation of the rules.他大声说，那是违反规则的。
• He was fined 200 dollars for violation of traffic regulation.他因违反交通规则被罚款200美元。

11 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

14 activists   

n.（政治活动的）积极分子，活动家( activist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His research work was attacked by animal rights activists . 他的研究受到了动物权益维护者的抨击。
• Party activists with lower middle class pedigrees are numerous. 党的激进分子中有很多出身于中产阶级下层。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 caucuses   

n.（政党决定政策或推举竞选人的）核心成员( caucus的名词复数 )；决策干部；决策委员会；秘密会议

参考例句：

• Republican caucuses will happen in about 410 towns across Maine. 共和党团会议选举将在缅因州的约410个城镇进行。 来自互联网

16 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。